Recently in Technology Category

Many mornings find me riding a stationary recumbent bike while watching TV (usually catching up on TiVo'd episodes of 'Daily Show') and I often wonder how something that marries the two would work.  Here's the concept:

When you buy the Adventurecise package, you get a piece of exercise equipment, such as a stationary bike or treadmill, and a box that hooks up between your TV and your input source (cable DVR, DVD player, whatever).  The equipment talks to the box over wireless (Bluetooth would work well...perhaps Wireless USB) and transmits your current status (speed, resistance/intensity setting, treadmill angle, etc.) every second or so. The box does a number of things.  The simplest of these is that it overlays a progress/pace meter on top of whatever you're watching.  Once you set a pace goal, the overlay will tell you how far behind/ahead you are, as well as your overall progress, in the corner or on one side of the TV screen.  Plus, you could have the option of the box disabling your input source if you drop below your desired pace (a not-so-subtle reminder that you're slacking off).

But that's just the beginning, and pretty tame to what this setup COULD do, and should do to earn the title Adventurecise.  If the box is networkable, or even just has a USB port you can stick a flash drive in, then you can have it run downloadable, user-driven adventure movies where physical activity (e.g., running or pedaling) is essential to making progress in the adventure.  For example, the movie starts out that you're being chased by zombies and need to outrun them to deliver the antidote serum to a lab (yes, we skip all the plot-building and character development in favor of quick exercise startup). 

All the camera footage would be first-person, a la Blair Witch, so you feel like you are the one running.  Then, every few minutes, you have to make a decision -- take a shortcut through a warehouse or go the long route through the park? -- indicating that using one or more buttons on the treadmill or bike.  The decisions you make determine the scenery you're running through, the things that happen around you, and the future decisions you have access to.  Typical choose-your-adventure stuff.  But, if you run/pedal too slowly -- after all, you're on an exercise machine that knows how fast you're pushing it -- you get caught by the zombies.

I think these interactive videos could be produced pretty cheaply so as to give people many different options (not everyone wants to have their exercise motivated by flesh-eating zombies).

Anyway, I'd like to hear your thoughts on this, especially if you've seen or heard of something similar already in existence.

Dan Ramirez (@vara411) and I have been monitoring the webOS App Catalog and recording app counts, and we now have data clear back to its launch.  Dan just posted a terrific write-up on the overall data, along with important events over webOS' short life so far, on his blog: Totally Palmed.  He also compares it to Android's App Market over its 15-month existence and comes to some interesting conclusions. (Go read that first and then come back and finish this.)

But, being the statistics and operations guy I am, I thought it'd be interesting to see what happens if we forecast these app counts out into the future.  So, using our data, I did just that.

First, I plotted the data versus months after each platform's app store launch.  The orange are all Palm webOS and the green are, obviously, Android. Note the two different y-axis units in the graph:

Then, using Excel's quick-and-dirty trendline tool (I just didn't feel like breaking out SAS for this), I looked through several forecast models and settled on second-order polynomials as the best-fitting solutions (per the R-squared values).

Using those trend formulas, I projected out the app count for each platform and got the pair of graphs below.

First is the graph that shows how each platform's app count grows relative to the calendar.  Since Android got an 8-month head start on webOS, it obviously gets bigger sooner. The projected data (estimates) are shown in alternate colors: dark green for Android and light orange for webOS.


Then, to look at this in a more apples-to-apples fashion, I removed the time lag for webOS and overlaid the two app counts on each other.  This is the same approach as the first two graphs above and shows total counts versus months after the launch of that platform's app store.

It looks pretty clear that both platforms are seeing exponential growth, which is a really good sign of healthy uptake by developers.  Also, it seems that Palm webOS will likely have 1/3rd to 1/4th the number of apps, at the equivalent time into its existence, that Android will.  And that should be fine, as any platform with 20,000+ apps (and a healthy growth rate) should be well-positioned for maintaining its position in the market. Android should pass that bar any day now, and webOS should, if these numbers are reasonably accurate, hit 20K apps before the end of next year.  Recent announcements that webOS will come to Verizon and AT&T in the first half of 2010 may accelerate webOS's app count considerably.

Granted, these charts are based on a variety of assumptions and should not be considered anything more than an interesting thought-experiment with pictures.  Google or Palm could come along with a new development tool or device or innovative program that greatly excites the dev community.  Conversely, either could screw up on something and drive them away.  Only time will tell, but it'll be fun to watch.

CES 2010 was fun. The International Consumer Electronics Show (its full name) is the world's largest trade show for gadgets, televisions, computers...pretty much everything in that fuzzy category of consumer electronics.  Sure, there are shows more focused on subsets, such as E3 for gaming, but CES is the king-daddy for the overall industry.

I was there Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning.  I phototweeted (new term?) from the show floor while I was there, and my pics and comments are posted at Twitpic.

Now that I've had some time to unpack, soak my feet, and reflect on the experience, here's what comes to mind, in no particular order:

Wow It's Big! -- I've been to trade shows before, but nothing on the scale of CES.  I'm not really sure how much total floorspace the show takes up, but it spreads out across very nearly the entire Las Vegas Convention Center (which, by itself, is larger than the town I grew up in) plus two other nearby hotels. Some numbers that came in right as I was typing this entry: an estimated 120,000+ attendees, 2,500 exhibitors, and 20,000 new products announced. No wonder I felt like I'd need a week to really see everything.

No Seminal Announcement -- Unlike last year's webOS launch from Palm, which really stole the show, 2010 didn't see any particular event or surprise that caught everyone's attention.  I asked lots of people what they thought was the big thing and got lots of different answers...a few people were excited by all the 3D TVs, projectors, and laptops; some thought Google's Nexus One was big (although technically not a CES event...they held it just one day before); Boxee Box wowed some folks; and more than one mentioned Palm's flurry of announcements, but no singular thing captured all the buzz.

Ebooks A-plenty -- There were just scads of ebooks all over CES.  They ranged from cheapo Kindle knock-offs to high-end, portfolio-style, dual-screen devices.  The success of Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble have clearly excited what had previously been a rather quiet market niche.

Android in Everything -- Google's free (mostly as in beer) operating system was crammed into all sorts of things, from gorgeous smartphones to touchscreen remote controls to hideously bad stationary videophones.  Mostly, at least it seemed to me, it was small Chinese and Korean companies doing this, but it does suggest the possibility of an interesting trend.

Flying Stuff is Cool -- One of the show's major prize winners was the Parrot G Drone, a bigger and all-around better version of that remote control helicopter you like to taunt your roommates and/or family members with, but which has a remote video feed and you can pilot it with your phone.  Another guy was selling an RC X-Wing Fighter (not licensed by Lucas, I would expect, since he calls it the "Star Stryker"), which cost $299 and has the biggest remote control unit I've ever seen. Here's the video:


It's a Great Time to be a Fan of Mobile Tech -- All these reports say that nobody buys MIDs (mobile Internet devices, like the Nokia N810 or Microsoft's UMPC format), but you wouldn't guess that by looking at the CES exhibits.  There were so many slates and tablets, most powered by Windows 7, that I stopped getting excited about them.  And some of them were really impressive; Viliv had a whole line-up of interesting portables.

Some other incompletely articulated thoughts:  car tech is getting interesting; Nokia's booth was pretty empty the few times I went past; few were very excited about Windows Mobile, either; there's a lot of garbage at CES, but at least they stick it in the "International Market" areas; LEGO has an interesting new MUD game coming out soon; geeks are attracted to exotic cars almost as much as they are to scantily-clad women...and they're equally unlikely to get much hands-on time; it's a good idea to have an actual working version of whatever it is you're trying to sell; there wasn't a lot of innovation in cameras that I saw...mostly around GPS embedding, which is cool; food is expensive there.

So, there you have it.  I hope to get back next year...it's a fun, if exhausting, experience.

As I have for several years now, below are my predictions for 2010.  Near the end of the year, I'll come back and evaluate how accurate I was.

1) Cyberterrorism Becomes a Significant Issue
We've all read reports and stories that say cyberterrorism (the act of attacking a country via its computer networks) is a growing threat and that the US should take it seriously.  We've even seen some limited cases where it was used to minor effect.  I expect 2010 will see the first major example of the damage cyberterrorism can achieve, and we'll all be much more aware of it as a result.  Sub-prediction: McAfee and Symantec sales grow significantly as a result.

2) Microsoft Launches Windows Mobile 7, Enough to Stay in the Game
The smartphone space is inhabited mostly by 6 key platform players: Symbian, Blackberry, iPhone, Android, webOS, and Windows Mobile.  Microsoft's recent endeavors in the mobile space haven't netted much (except perhaps some slight momentum on the media player side). WinMo 6.5 was late and generally uncompetitive with more contemporary offerings already in the marketplace. Pink was an absolute disaster. Even hardcore WinMo fans are getting restless for something really new. Windows Mobile 7 will have a daunting challenge in successfully fighting back against 5 competitors with better products and/or well-established market shares.  Windows Mobile 7, when it comes out in the latter half of 2010, will still seem a little stale in comparison, but much better than 6.5.  I do, however, fully expect 7 will tap into the other mobile products & services Microsoft has been cultivating, such as Bing and Zune (what is it with their onomotopoeic product names?).  It won't be a barnburner, but, with some help from HTC and a couple other big-name handset producers Microsoft can count on, they'll have a small stable of fairly impressive devices available by the end of the year.

3) 3-D Gets Even More Press but No Real Traction in the Home
3-D televisions and video players will be all over the place at CES, but their availability and technical trade-offs will keep them from seeing significant adoption in 2010.  Long-term, however, I think 3-D will eventually take off, but I doubt it will happen as long as viewers have to wear special glasses in order to not be nauseated by the image.

4) Fervor over Social Search Subsides but Doesn't Die Out
Social search (i.e., using real-time social media as sources of useful information for returning search results) is all the rage as we enter 2010.  I think that the major search engines (e.g., Google, Bing, Yahoo!, et al.) will all figure out by the end of the year that, while social search has some promise for a small subset of queries, information produced by social media is largely junk and an unreliable source of value to their customers (search engine users).  However, there is some gold in them thar hills, and we'll start seeing the fruits of their efforts as they isolate those situations where social search can indeed be really, really valuable (e.g., product reviews and event status).

5) Movies and TV Shows Go Mashup...and Not in a Good Way
A lot of media producers seem to be running out of ideas, so I think they'll start going for unique combinations of themes and concepts to fuel their movies and television shows. Think space vampires and hot robot/android women battling killer zombies driving souped-up, well-armed cars really fast around Las Vegas.  Coming soon to theaters near you.

6) Apple Announces a Tablet
Yes, I'm a sucker for this rumor-that-will-not-die.  It's not like I'm even a fan of the tablet concept, so this isn't something I'm particularly hoping will happen.  I just think it will.  Imagine a 7"-to-10" iPhone Touch and you won't be too far off.  Oh, and it will be more expensive than anyone who isn't an Apple shareholder thinks is reasonable, yet it will sell quite well (at least initially).

7) SuperSpeed USB Takes Off Quickly
I think we'll see SuperSpeed USB (a.k.a. USB 3.0) be adopted very rapidly in 2010.  Signs from motherboard and accessory makers are that they're very eager to adopt this recently ratified standard, and I think everyone would agree that faster USB connections is only a good thing.  As long as they don't screw up backward compatibility (one of the keys to USB 2.0 being as successful as it has been), it'll be another home run. On a related note, Wireless USB will not get the attention or traction we'd all like a stable, high-speed wireless connectivity standard to get, mostly because it just won't be as simple as plugging a wire into a hole.

8) Steve Jobs Gives an Apple Keynote Presentation
Might Sir Jobs be the "one more thing" at WWDC?

9) Sprint is Acquired
The cellular carrier's weak valuation and lackluster performance in retaining customers and attracting new ones, combined with its continued WiMAX roll-out will make it a target for some kind of merger or acquisition, likely by a European carrier looking to get entry into the US market.  The actual acquisition may not go through in 2010 due to extensive regulatory review, but the intent will be announced.

10) Twitter Grows at a Slower Rate than in 2009
Twitter will continue to gain new members faster than it loses them, but it will not see the huge surge it enjoyed in 2009.  This will mostly be because the company's management has a tenuous, at best, grasp on what its users want (leading it to make bad design decisions) and a business model that does not support both rapid growth and scalable, reliable service (thereby turning off users).  It's too bad, too, as Twitter could've become the next Facebook had they played their cards right.  The only thing that can save it is an acquisition...Google, perhaps?

So that's it for my 2010 predictions.  What do you think will happen in the upcoming year?

Now that we've reached the end of another calendar, in continuing a tradition I started in 2003, below is a review of my 10 predictions for 2009 and an assessment of how accurate I was on each one.

1) Microsoft Launches Windows 7 to Fanfare, Skepticism
Microsoft's two pillars of financial solvency -- Windows and Office -- have been standing on shaky ground recently. Office 2007 was a decent hit, despite it not offering much new and causing significant backward compatibility issues. But Windows Vista, on the other hand, has been an unmitigated disaster. Microsoft even had to resort to tricking users into liking Vista (Mojave, anyone?), it had developed such a bad reputation. Windows 7 will be launched late in 2009 to a general consensus of "it's better," but will not be the "wow" that Microsoft needs to regain the market share it has recently ceded to Apple. But maybe that's a good thing...having strong competitors is usually a good thing for consumer markets.

When Windows 7 was officially launched October 22nd, by any measure, it came out to positive reviews and very good, if not great, sales. Of course, following a dog of a product like Vista will go a long way towards creating pent-up demand, so it wasn't unexpected. However, if you went by the press and hype, you'd think Microsoft was the underdog to Apple instead of still appearing on about 93% of all desktops. Windows 7 has slowed the slight shift towards OS X, but it's not clear yet that any ground is being made up.  Ironically, the best thing to happen to Windows in 2009 may have been the explosion of netbooks (more on that below).

2) Blockbuster Declares Bankruptcy
This may be a bit "out there," but I see exceedingly tough times at Blockbuster. And this isn't vindictiveness...I've been a reasonably happy Blockbuster.com customer for several years, now. I just think that, given the state of its business (poor), the weakness in the economy (near-critical), the nature of its service (luxury), and the rapidity with which that industry is transforming, I think Blockbuster will file for bankruptcy protection to get out of some of its debt, sell off some property (store locations that aren't faring well), and reinvest that into developing newer and more attractive services. So, they aren't going away...yet.

After spending much of 2009 desperately raising capital and refinancing its debt, Blockbuster is trying a variety of tactics to stave off its own demise at the hands of an increasingly varied assortment of competitors.  Netflix and piracy, Blockbuster's perennial nemeses, are joined by Redbox in stressing the company's sweaty grip on life even further.  However, per part of my prediction, Blockbuster announced in early 2009 that it would be closing 128 physical stores.  That number was massively expanded late in 2009 to closer to 1,000 stores.  Additionally, Blockbuster is launching a large kiosk initiative.  It's amazing how consistently the company does exactly what its competitors do, but 2-3 years later.  However, Blockbuster did not enter into any form of bankruptcy during 2009, so I'm declaring this one a failed prediction.

3) Palm Launches New OS to Fanfare, Skepticism
We've all heard the rumors that Palm will be launching "Nova," its replacement for the ancient Palm OS, at CES 2009 in a few days. I'm pretty sure that's going to happen. I'm also pretty sure that Palm will have at least one new device, if not several, running the new OS available by the end of June. While launching phones can take a while, given the carriers' lengthy testing requirements, launching a PDA doesn't, so Palm could certainly come out with two (or more) non-phone PDAs running Nova pretty quickly. And it needs to...the TX is older than my grandmother (at least in technology years). Generally, I predict there will be more nice things said about Nova, and the new devices, than critical, and it will stack up fairly competitively with Android and WM 6.5. What I do not have a lot of faith in is Palm's ability to develop and deliver the ecology of services (e.g., app stores) that customers are now expecting their smartphones to be integrated into. Time will tell on that front.

As we all now know, Nova was introduced as Palm webOS in January, 2009 at CES.  The first device running webOS was the Palm Pre, a nifty portrait QWERTY slider with HVGA multitouch screen.  Also during 2009, a second webOS device, the Palm Pixi, was announced and launched.  However, surprisingly, there were no non-phone webOS devices released.  In hindsight, I guess that makes sense, as Palm just doesn't have the resources (technical or financial) to launch 3+ separate devices in a single year.  Looking back, it's pretty clear that webOS and the Pre were well-received.  In fact, the Pre was the only smartphone to make it onto Twitter's Top-10 Trending Topics list for 2009, something neither the iPhone 3G S nor the Motorola Droid accomplished.  The two frustrating bits for Palm in 2009 have been Sprint's performance as a sole-carrier partner (in the US) for its new devices and the slow growth of the App Catalog.  However, both of these should be resolved in 2010...for Palm's sake, I hope so.

4) Blu-Ray Players Hit $99
During 2009, I think we'll see a raft of Korean and Taiwanese off-brand manufacturers launch budget Blu-Ray players. Just like the 2008 holiday sales saw BD players hit $149 in some stores, 2009 holiday sales will see them hit $99...if not sooner.

As I type this, Wal-Mart is selling a Magnavox NB500MG1F Blu-Ray Player for $98.00.  While it's just a Magnavox, it does meet the minimum criteria for confirming this prediction.

5) Apple Launches a Tablet to Fanfare
This has been a persistent rumor for years, but I think 2009 will see it actually happen. Why? A few reasons. First, Apple is looking to multi-touch as a key differentiator in its product lines, and having a full-screen, large-display MT device would make total sense. Second, it fits perfectly with the needs of the "creative class," Apple's core customer base. And third, it fills out a hole in their mobile product line that netbooks and other devices not running OS X fill nicely, and that's not a good thing for Apple. So, the technology is ready, the market is willing...and now I think Apple will be able to meet the demand.

Ha ha ha ha...um, no.  While many, many individuals would love for that to happen (if only as additional blog fodder), Apple has not announced anything.  However, there is feverish excitement in OS X fanboy camps about the iSlate being launched at an Apple event in January, 2010.  Or not.

6) Consolidation in the Entertainment Industry
2009 will be a strange year on a lot of dimensions. Not only will the stock market be hard to predict, there will be a lot of odd relationships come out of the mess. One industry that is still poised to make things happen is the entertainment industry, where I expect we'll see larger firms (e.g., major movie studios) start to acquire smaller, but very successful, examples from the newer media (e.g., game producers). A good example of the type of transaction I'm imagining would be Vivendi acquiring Ubisoft. I think Time Warner would love to swallow up Electronic Arts, but that might be a bit too big a bite unless something untoward happens to EA's stock price over the next year.

There were a number of major entertainment industry mergers and acquisitions in 2009.  One biggie was Disney scooping up Marvel Entertainment (comic books & movies) for $4 billion. While this deal hasn't been finalized, signs point to it going through. Another deal was the spin-off and merger involving Liberty Media Entertainment and DirecTV.  Is this a baby Time Warner in the making?  Hard to say, but I doubt it.  These two deals pale in comparison to what might turn out to be a merger of tectonic proportions:  Comcast buying 51% of NBC Universal.  If this goes through (in 2010), it will continue the trend of the same companies controlling the pipes and content, which could will cause consumers serious headaches in the years to come.  Or, they'll just continue to ignore the networks more and more and, instead, turn to the Internet for socially constructed content.  In that case, pray for net neutrality...it'll be our only hope.

7) Steve Jobs Announces Transition to New Role
I think concerns over Jobs' health have more merit than most of us want to admit. In 2009, I expect him to announce that he's transitioning into a different role than President and CEO of Apple (and CEO of Pixar). Something that keeps him out of the spotlight while he deals with his health issues will be valuable to keep Apple's stock price up and customer base intact. The move towards reducing his presence in near-term product launches is consistent with this strategy. But, he's far from gone...his influence will still be felt behind the scenes, but we'll see less of him in his traditional role as Apple poster boy.

Despite many people calling me a pessimist, an Apple-hater, and worse, I stood by this prediction.  On January 5, 2009, Sir Jobs sent out this infamous note claiming that his health issues were minor and transient.  But then, just a few days later, he followed up with a bombshell that he was much sicker than that and he'd be leaving until mid-year.  Given his absence at keynotes and overall behavior reminiscent of the Wizard of Oz ("pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!"), his role has clearly changed.  And I take no joy in being right; Jobs is clearly a genius and consumer electronics is better off with him at the height of his abilities.  I look forward to him giving the keynote at WWDC in June, 2010.

8) Facebook Membership Growth Flattens; Twitter Surges
Signs are pointing towards Facebook's popularity beginning to peak. Just as with everything social, when moms and dads begin to frequent the coffee shop, the kids need a new place to hang out. Facebook currently has almost 40 million members in the US. While that number has been skyrocketing since it opened up membership to anyone in September 2006, I think 2009 will see a marked deceleration in its growth. The loss of perceived exclusivity and the hassle of the relatively unprotected app space will combine to make it less appealing to many long-time users and new prospects will find fewer people urging them to get on board. Twitter, however, will see continued growth as it continues to tweak and adapt its environment to meet its core users' needs.

While I'm counting this as a miss, it's actually 50% true.  Facebook's growth did not slow significantly as I'd predicted, but Twitter certainly did have the surge I thought was inevitable.

Let's look at some graphs:

You'll notice that Facebook's growth is pretty continuous up until late 2009, where some outages and privacy issues potentially took away from its momentum.  Now, Twitter...

This is a dramatic acceleration in Twitter's reach.  2009 will clearly go down in history as the year of Twitter.  In fact, Google and Microsoft so believed in it that they both inked deals to include Twitter's stream in their search engines as real-time results.

9) App Stores Dominate Mobile Software Delivery
iPhone's app store, Android's market...these types of bazaars, managed by the sponsors/manufacturers of the mobile operating systems, are coming to be the dominant mode for software distribution to mobile users. It marks a significant break from the traditional model, where mobile developers could sell software from their own sites, through 3rd party aggregators, and through carriers. This new approach is more streamlined, making it easier for users, but also more controlled, which can make it harder to accommodate large and complex ecosystems. The fact that each of the existing app stores serves a relatively small market is why we haven't seen these problems emerge to a point where they start driving users away. 2009 will see continued movement towards these controlled markets and away from the free-form/multi-channel models that previous mobile generations (e.g., Palm OS, Windows Mobile) relied on.

Undoubtedly true. Apple paved the way with this new model and, by the end of 2009, the existence of a robust app store is a requirement for any smartphone platform to be considered a contender. Apple's App Store recently passed 100,000 apps while Android's App Market has around 15,000 titles.  Palm's App Catalog just left beta status and is closing in on 1,000 apps.  In 2009, Windows Mobile, Blackberry, and Symbian app catalogs were all launched as well.  Clearly, this is the dominant mobile app distribution model for the foreseeable future.

10) Line Blurs between "Netbooks" and Notebooks/Laptops
Netbooks are currently a fairly homogeneous, and well-defined, niche of laptop computers. Most of them have an Intel Atom processor, a screen from 8.9" to 10" in size, no optical drive, weigh between 2.2 and 3 lbs, and cost $300-$500. There's a big gap in pricing then between these netbooks and the subnotebooks/ultraportables that often have slightly larger screens, way more RAM and processing power, and cost $1,500 or more. To paraphrase the old adage, markets abhor a vacuum, so I expect we'll start seeing all manner of new small notebooks come into the market in this $500-$1000 range sporting screens in the 9"-12" range with anything from 512MB to 2GB of RAM, a variety of operating systems (XP and Linux will continue to be most popular), and a range of processing and display capabilities. Not everyone needs to play Crysis on their notebook, but not everyone can get by with a 1024x600 screen and do everything inside their browser.

This was evident even early on in 2009, and now, at year's end, the trend is clearly supportive. While initial netbooks were all burdened with screens in the 8"-9" range, recently announced models have 11" and even 12" screens.  Surprisingly, the prices we're willing to pay for netbooks is increasing, too (clear up to $1,500 if you consider the impressively engineered Sony Vaio X).  Sure, it could just be that our definition of "netbook" is expanding.  But, it's hard to argue that the line between netbook and notebook is getting pretty diffused. 

So, looking back, my record for 2009 seems to be 7 right, 3 wrong...about in line with last year. Some of these were hard to determine, as I had packed in several related predictions into a single item, something I'll try not to do when I post my predictions for 2010 in the next day or two. Until then, let me know what you think in the comments below. 

Thanks, and have a great New Year!

On Sunday, I saw this post over at Engadget:

I thought, "Wow...plays the right formats, has a good resolution, and is cheap!" So I checked it out at the drop-shipper's website, Ownta.com:

Hottest Free Shipping MP5 recommendation: Teclast T51 PMP Audiophile Quality MP5 Player - 8GB

Gemei HD8800 Full HD PMP Player with HDMI TV-out and OTG Function - 8GB

The HD8800 is that it offers true 1080 HD (1920×1080 screen resolution) in a PMP format, has up to a 50mbps video stream and the 8GB version. It has HDMI output and can play audio (MP3 and iTunes) and video (AVI, DVDA, MKV, MP4, MPG, Realtime, MOV, Flash and WMA).

Gemei HD8800 MP5 Player Specification:

Model	HD8800(8G)
Memory	8G
Storage Media	Flash
Battery	2000 milliamperes lithium batteries
Life	Plug headphones 5 hours movie playback, 10 hours music playback
Expansion Card	Maximum support 32G TF card
Transmission Interface	USB 2.0 interface
Display System
Screen Size	4.3 inch
Screen Features	800 × 480 resolution, high-definition screen LTPS
Supported Languages	Traditional Chinese, Simplified Chinese, English
Synchronized lyrics display	To support synchronous lyrics display function
Photo View	Support JPG, BMP, PNG and other image formats to view and support the Rotary / Slide Show
Text-reading	Support the text-reading capabilities in support of TTS voices in Chinese and English reading, support change font, font color, background color, the Bookmarks feature, support while listening to music, watching pictures look e-books and other functions
Video system
Support video formats	Support for RMVB, RM, FLV (H.263, H.264), AVI, DAT, VOB, MKV (H.264), WMV, TS, TP, MP4, PMP and so on for more than 30 formats, network all the video files of the next -play
Video playback	480P to 1080P Full HD support for any video encoding format
Video Output	HDMI 480P to 1080P Full HD output and normal AV Output
Other video parameters	Decoder chip: Chinachip CC09
Audio system
Support audio formats	mp3 , wma , ape , flac , wav
Audio	Unique 3D virtual sound field, a variety of EQ sound modes
Recording	MP3, WAV audio format
Functional FM	Support FM function of the frequency range 76-108MHZ
Speaker	Pairs of left and right channel speaker outposting
Additional features
Camera	Non
Digital companion function	Supports
Additional features	Support for song search; support for dual-threaded operation; support firmware upgrade function; video break added broadcast are free to change the background themes to customize your desktop, change the font color, picture browsing / rotation, radio stations a list of unique features such as timing off set
Other parameters
Headset Description	3.5mm stereo headphone output
Specifications	111.7×75.2×14.3mm
Accessories	USB cable, headphones, manual, warranty card

Gemei HD8800 MP5 Player Package Contains :

• 1 x Gemei HD8800 MP5 Player
• 1 x USB cable
• 1 x TV-out cable
• 1 x HDMI cable
• 1 x remote control
• 1 x charger
• 1 x Earphones
• 1 x case
• 1 x Instruction manual

It looked good, and cheap, so I bought one.  Or so I thought.

After Ownta confirmed my Paypal payment, they said the unit would ship within 2 business days.  At the end of the 2nd day, I'd not gotten any word about a tracking number, so I inquired about the status and got this reply:

Hello, Dear Craig, Gemei factory has been upgrade the HD8800 chipset and firmware, this caused the delay of the shipment, the estimated shipping date is 25th, Oct, we are so sorry for any inconvnience, you will receive the player as soon as possible. Kindly regards.

OK, I thought...that's fine.  I can wait a few more days. Then I rechecked Ownta's product description page and noticed that the price had been changed from $122.39 to "[Contact us for a price]".  Hmmm.

Then, today, I got this email from Ownta:

Dear Customer:

       Our manufacturer gemei has been received your orders, and all of them are in schedule to ship out in the soonest time. We are upgrading HD8800 firmware and fix some bugs to ensure the good quality of products, so, the latest shipment will expect to arrange on 30th, Oct. We will also try to ship them out as soon as possible.

       For all our Gemei HD8800 customers can receive a free strap gift together with the player, and also, you will get a free reseller membership on ownta.com once we shipped out it. So, you will get reseller prices for all your future orders.

       We are so sorry about the unexpected delay, and rely on your understanding. Ownta.com will always dedicate to provide the best products and best service, if you have any  problems, please feel free contact us at any time.

       Thank you so much & Kindly regards,

 

Arlene, L

Customer Service Department,

http://www.ownta.com

Now I'm starting to wonder if this is a scam.  Will they keep delaying to try and get me beyond Paypal's 45-day dispute window?  I can guarantee you that if it hasn't been shipped by day 44, the payment will be canceled.

We'll see, though...I'm kinda excited to see what crazy bit of kit the Chinese have cooked up now.

I recently received the MobileOffice D28, a very portable duplex sheetfeed scanner, from Plustek.  Overall, it's a very capable, compact, and relatively affordable (compared to similar models from Fujitsu and others) scanner with decent performance and capable, if not very polished, host PC software to support it.
Plustek lists the following as some of the D28's core features:

• Compact design & easy to carry
• Fast Scanning Speed ( 2.2 sec per page)
• Special design for Embossed / Plastic card scanning
• Duplex / Simplex Full Color Scanning
• Power & Time saving (no warming lead time needed)
• Multi function with user friendly software
• Support Asian Language Recognition (Traditional Chinese, Simplified Chinese, Japanese)

While I didn't take a stopwatch to it to test the 2.2-second scanning time claim, it is rather fast.  Since it doesn't have an automatic sheet-feeder, each page has to be manually fed into the scanner.  This makes the human operator likely the slowest part of the setup.  For that reason alone, you'll want the D28 for small scanning jobs only.

The user interface on the scanner is dead simple.  It has a numeric LED that displays which of 9 user-settable scanning modes it's in, a button to change the mode, and then two buttons to select Simplex (single-sided) or Duplex (double-sided) scanning.  That's it.  Oh, and a power button on the side.  The top cover flips open to clear jams and the back part slides up and down to let the user select where outgoing media go (either straight out the back or diverted straight up for easier retrieval).  The only other user-accessible moving part are the sliding media guides on the front, which vary from 8-1/2" to business card width.

Setup includes plugging in the removable cord (with power adapter), plugging in the USB cord to your PC and the scanner, running the setup software, and feeding in the special calibration sheet included in the box.  All told, it took me less than 10 minutes, with most of that unpacking and letting the software install.

Plustek includes a raft of software titles with the scanner:  "ABBYY FineReader 6.0 Sprint for OCR and NewSoft MaxReader 4.1 for organizing Asia language, and NewSoft Presto! PageManager 7.10 for document management, NewSoft Presto! Image Folio 4.5 for photo management."  Pretty complete, but obviously, Plustek used all of its HR budget to hire engineers instead of English-language web editors. 

The one piece of software that the user will interact with most often is the DigiDoc scan control interface.  This is where all the settings for each of the 9 user-determined scanning modes.  Each mode can be individually configured along a variety of settings, including output type (e.g., image file, PDF, etc.), resolution, color depth, save-to directory, file autonaming scheme, and so on.  It is impressively flexible and fairly straightforward, if rather bland and uninviting. 

Here are a couple of sample screen shots.  The first one is set up to save modest-resolution, grayscale JPGs. The 9 tabs each correspond to a different profile, and the checkmarks indicate whether or not the scanner should make them available via its mode selection button.

Palm and Apple: two icons of the consumer technology industry. Over the past 15 years, they've had a complicated relationship. These firms have both learned from each others' mistakes, emulated each others' successes, and, for the first time, are now competing squarely against each other for mastery of the smartphone market.

In 1993, Apple launched what many consider to be the first serious attempt at a sophisticated PDA (personal digital assistant): the Newton MessagePad. Typically referred to simply as a Newton, it was, by most measures, a disaster in the marketplace. While it seemed like a brilliant concept, its uneven performance -- most notably, its lackluster handwriting recognition -- lead it to become the target of much mockery (e.g., several mentions in Doonesbury).

Watching all this transpire was a small group of entrepreneurs and inventors who wanted a crack at the PDA space. This foundling company lead by Jeff Hawkins was Palm. In 1996, it launched its own take on the PDA: the Palm Pilot. Palm had learned several lessons from Apple's experience with the Newton.

For example, instead of trying to transcribe anyone's handwriting (a feat difficult even for the human brain), Palm decided to require the user to learn Graffiti, a special script specifically developed for better handwriting recognition. And it worked; the Pilot soared to heights of popularity, partly because Graffiti was a much better solution to the input problem.

Apple abandoned the PDA market and, after failing to purchase Palm, their paths crossed only very infrequently over the next several years at the corporate level. However, several Apple employees left to join Palm. That trend continued; in fact, a significant percentage of Palm's employees are today former Apple staffers. Palm's Chairman, Jon Rubenstein, lead development of the original iPod while at Apple; he joined Palm and launched the program that resulted in the new Pre smartphone. That cross-breeding may be part of the reason that Palm and Apple continued to learn from each other.

In 1997, upon Steve Jobs' return to Apple, it decided it would cease this practice (for various reasons that continue to be debated to this day). Around the same time, Palm decided to start licensing its Palm OS to other hardware/device makers. Palm quickly began to understand the complexities associated with trying to run a business that sold devices while licensing the OS that ran those devices to its competitors. Diverging product lines and pressure from licensees to open up the OS beyond what Palm could readily manage eventually lead Palm to split in two; its device (PalmOne) and OS (PalmSource) sides went their separate ways with only a licensing agreement and some lingering animosity to connect them.

A few years later, Palm found that the venerable Palm OS was running out steam and chose to begin developing a Linux-based replacement. That new OS, which has been called webOS, will launch on the Palm Pre June 6, 2009.

This OS replacement situation was similar to one Apple faced about a decade ago. Around the time of Jobs' return, Apple decided to begin phasing out the original proprietary Mac OS and replace it with the new UNIX-based OS X, which launched in 2001.

Another way Palm has learned from Apple is how it handles product launches. Steve Jobs has long been considered master of the product launch. Apple tightly controls pre-launch information leaks, highly engineers new products so as to rely on minimal "patches" after launch, and puts heavy emphasis on industrial design. Palm's latest launch, that of the Palm Pre, has all the trademarks of an Apple event. Information has been, for the most part, carefully managed. Palm has taken extreme care in ensuring that the product that hits the streets on June 6 is as devoid of flaws as possible. And the trade-offs associated with form versus functionality are often skewed towards the former (e.g., the rationale for not including a removable memory card slot in the Pre was to ensure the unit was as sleek and small as possible). While both companies have less-than-perfect track records in product launches (e.g., Apple's MobileMe and Palm's Foleo), Palm is clearly learning from Apple's successes in this regard.

But the learning hasn't been all one-way; Apple has also learned quite a bit from Palm's experiences over the past 13 years. Several design decisions in the iPhone are straight out of Palm's playbook: a touchscreen, icon-based interface; an external "ringer" switch to silence the device; an application-launcher "home" screen; and so forth. While the iPhone is different in many ways from any Treo or Palm device ever made, it is clear that some elements were lifted from Palm's successful line of handhelds and smartphones. Palm returned the favor by including some multitouch gestures similar to those used in the iPhone; Apple was unhappy enough with that to threaten legal action, but nothing came of it (yet).

Apple also learned from one of Palm's main failings, which was how it managed third-party development in order to create value for its user community. While Palm had occasionally encouraged and/or partnered with software sites that catered to Palm OS users (e.g., Stingersoft, PalmGear, and Handango), there was never a centralized, easy-to-access catalog for those new to the platform. And even if the user found one of those sites, he still had to navigate downloading to a PC, sometimes unzipping and/or running an installer application, and then syncing the new app to his device. All told, it was not a thoughtfully engineered user experience suitable for the masses. Apple's App Store greatly improved all that by making the one place with all apps available directly from the device. While some might argue that the lack of an open market ecosystem retards innovation, there's no debate over the improvement the App Store approach has had on users' familiarity and usage of 3rd party software.

One area that both companies have had similarly poor performance is interacting with the fan community. Apple is notorious for suing blogs over rumors and product leaks. Palm has sued websites over naming issues. Both companies have had their share of PR faux pas when it comes to handling contentious issues on the Internet. Apple found itself in hot water over how it addressed pricing changes shortly after the 1st-gen iPhone launch. Palm messed up an opportunity with the PreDevCamp crowd over secrecy/transparency pressures (although that appears to be reconciled, now). While it's easy to make original mistakes, let's hope that both companies improve how they manage their community relations.

While I'm certainly not claiming that either Palm or Apple is beholden to the other company for its success (or failure), it seems clear that both companies have carefully observed each other and tried to learn from their experiences. Not replicating your competitors' mistakes is always helpful.

Going forward, as Palm and Apple find each other squarely in the other company's sights, it will be fascinating to watch how each move is countered and each new product is reacted to. With all the history and common blood linking these two firms, this match-up could be one of the more compelling and interesting over the next few years.

Update: Rene Ritchie pointed me (indirectly) to a list of Apple's product flops over the years, which is interesting reading to reflect on when you start thinking the company can do no wrong.

Update #2: Fortune has an interesting story on the impending rivalry: Palm fights back (against Apple)

I'm losing a battle, the battle to keep my personal online self separated from my work/professional online self. And losing that battle has some potentially serious consequences.

In the 15 or so years I've been "on the web," I've tried to maintain a division between my personal life and my professional life. The reason is pretty simple: some of the things I might say or do with friends and family might be incompatible with expectations for my behavior as whatever kind of professional I'm employed as at the time.

I'm not talking anything scandalous...no KKK activities, secret families, or felony indictments...but statements and actions that might seem totally innocuous in one context and to one person (e.g., joking with an old friend) might seem out-of-place in another context to a different person (e.g., to a student or client).

And that division is slowly eroding...slipping away as my ability to keep one "life" separate from the other disintegrates. Some of my work colleagues and students have started following me on Twitter and friending me on Facebook (hi, folks!), places that I've never intended to engage anyone from work (with, perhaps, a few exceptions). More confounding is LinkedIn, on which I have a complete cross-section of associations from every corner of my personal and professional lives.

Many of those connections, and the overall intermixing of my personae, are, admittedly, my own fault. When I initially set up Facebook, I accidentally let it troll through my Gmail addressbook and send out automatic invitations. Newbie mistake. On Twitter, my profile is open, meaning anyone can follow me. And, I also have this tendency to only use my real name online; I never felt comfortable hiding behind a quasi-anonymous pseudonym or fake profile. All considered, I really only have myself to blame for allowing the online division between my personal self and my work self to blur.

So what does this mean? I think it means that my online "self" will have to be much more thoughtful and considerate of the implications, for every facet of my life, of my actions online. A bawdy joke told in a small, yet public, mailing list could easily find its way to my boss' desk. A thoughtless, or even mean-spirited, comment could ultimately offend a co-worker. These unintended consequences are like civilian casualties in a war; collateral damage from acting thoughtlessly in a casual space that is, ultimately, connected in a very real sense to one's professional environment.

Perhaps this is precisely what all those Gen-Y kids were learning when their Facebook profiles and Myspace pages were being used by potential employers as reasons to not hire them; 27 photos of you drunk off your butt at a fraternity party doesn't tend to impress the HR department very much.

So, the bottom line is this, what I'm calling my Golden Rule for the digital era:

Treat others online the way you want them to treat you in person.

If I treat every interaction, whether online or face-to-face, as if it were happening in person, I'm sure there would be times I would handle it differently. Is it better to have less freedom to do as my basest reactionary self wants, less consideration for the human on the other end of the bitpipe? No, I think society has always relied on our ability to reign in that temptation. And the Internet changes nothing in that regard, except, perhaps, to give us more opportunities to screw up.

So, now, going forward, the real test is seeing if I can live by that rule of mine. Wish me luck!

PC Magazine posted a list of 10 companies using Twitter in interesting, novel ways. One of the more common uses was as a customer service channel, such as what Palm and some folks from Sprint have been doing.

And it's fairly easy to do. With Twitter's search engine, it's relatively painless to stay abreast of any mention of your company or its branded services. Monitoring this constantly is essential to initiating timely contacts with customers who mention they are having problems.

But, before companies jump into offering customer service via a novel medium like Twitter, some caution should be taken; while the payoff of an innovative move like this can be significant to your customers, there are easy mistakes to be made. So, a quick list of some general lessons:

1) Twitter isn't the best option for most, or even many, of your customers

For part of my PhD dissertation, I worked with customer support of a major ISP researching how they interact with customers over various channels (at the time, it was phone, email, and IM). We found that different problem types and different customer needs were most effectively handled via different media (due to the characteristics of those media)...there was not one medium that did the best under all circumstances.

So what does this mean when using Twitter? Different customers are going to have different needs. Some are going to have very simple problems that can be addressed quickly and are going to be fairly matter-of-fact/rational about the issue. Twitter could be a terrific medium for those kinds of situations.

But, many customers are going to have complex problems, be upset about the problem, or both. In these cases, Twitter is unlikely to be the best choice. In these situations, the 140-character limitation of Twitter makes it really difficult to engage in complex conversations with completeness and clarity. And in cases where the customer is upset or angry, you need to convey empathy and concern. The terseness required in Twitter is just not adequate for mollifying emotional customers.

2) Use Twitter to route customers to better support channels in your firm

Instead of trying (and likely failing) to address customers' issues via interaction on Twitter, use that opportunity to direct customers to those other people/channels in your company who can best handle them. But don't just rely on a message like the following:

You clearly risk losing the customer. Instead, ensure the hand-off happens by getting the customer's contact information (obviously best if done via direct message) and then passing that onto the appropriate channel so a support rep can then join and continue the conversation that was started on Twitter through whatever medium is best suited for the problem at hand (phone, email, etc.).

3) Failures are public spectacles

It's important to remember that Twitter is a social medium. Any failure on your part to soothe an aggravated customer could easily turn into a public shouting match, even if the shouting is only one way. And to make matters worse, that conversation is persistent, there for the customer to reference for any and all friends to view. A happy customer might tell a friend, but an unhappy one will tell the world. And, since that unhappy customer is already sitting there in front of a potentially huge social network, that negative word-of-mouth can spread quickly. This makes it just that much more important to avoid long, public conversations with upset/angry customers on social networks like Twitter. If the customer wants to vent, let them rant over a medium that is isolated away from public scrutiny and where they are guaranteed to have the customer rep's undivided attention.

4) Do it well, or don't do it

As social media are still fairly new to many companies, it's tempting to let an employee or two who are particularly interested in the medium "try it out" informally, perhaps even during off-hours. This approach is unlikely to result in highly satisfied customers for a few reasons. First, the hand-offs mentioned in #1 above are unlikely to happen smoothly and quickly, thus risking further alienating a customer already having problems. Second, these employees who are interested may not be the best people in your company to do this; they may not even be customer support professionals with appropriate training and/or people skills. And third, a lack of formality means that key lessons may not be captured in order to help improve future efforts at using social media for customer service.

No, instead, set up a quick team with appropriate resources. This doesn't have to be, nor should it be, a several-month project to assemble the team and create policies and document processes. But, some level of formality can be helpful, even if it's simply a list of contacts within the company for handing off different types of problems/customers and a regular (e.g., daily) huddle to share insights and set expectations. This will likely be a very new way to engage the customer, so learning is inevitable. You're unlikely to get it perfect from day one, but getting there as quickly as possible is the key to creating an advantage over your competitors.

A lot has been written about displays on mobile devices; smartphones and portable media players rely heavily on their screens to both display information and allow interaction. A lot of consumers might consider display SIZE when thinking about their next mobile device purchase, but I'd like them to also consider another, slightly more technical, attribute: PIXEL DENSITY.

It's obvious that display sizes vary a lot in the smartphone and PMP world. One comparison of a few relatively recent devices showed a variety of sizes and aspect ratios:

When publishing the specs of devices, most often, we're given two pieces of information about the display:
• Its resolution, expressed in pixels along each side (e.g., 320x240)
• Its diagonal measurement, as in the diagram below

However, we're rarely given the statistic that has a significant effect on a screen's readability and our enjoyment in looking at it, which is the pixel density. Screens with low pixel density can have that "blocky" effect, which can make text unpleasurable to read and photos look, well, yucky.

So, higher pixel density is always good, right? Unfortunately, no. The human eye is limited in its ability to perceive resolution...more than about 300 dots per inch (dpi) and our eyes can no longer distinguish them from each other. High-quality print output is generally in the 300 dpi range. Photos generally don't need to be this high to convey good detail (see my Photo Printing Worksheet for more info).

So where does that leave us with device displays? Well, there's a pretty broad range of what people find acceptable. I consider myself a screen snob and am generally unhappy with displays below about 170 pixels per inch (ppi). However, as noted above, more isn't always better...a display with 350 ppi isn't going to be much better than one with 300 ppi, and may even be worse. The higher the pixel density, usually, the smaller (physically) fonts appear, making it more difficult to read.

We can calculate pixel density (in terms of pixels per inch) by knowing the screen resolution and diagonal size, but it requires a bit of algebra. So, I created an Excel spreadsheet with those calculations and whipped up a table of some popular smartphones, PDAs & PMPs to show the range of pixel densities found in mobile devices today.

This is simply a screen grab of that Excel sheet (here's the Excel file if you want to download it for your own use), but it illustrates how impressive some of these recent devices have gotten in terms of displays. Sony has a weird fetish for painfully high pixel densities, both on their phones and some of the subnotebooks, but RIM, which resisted higher-resolution displays for a long time, now has some Blackberries with really stunning screens.

Hopefully, this will help you think about the pixel density of the next smartphone or PMP you plan to buy, since the display is one of the biggest influences on how much many people enjoy their mobile devices.

It's been about 8 months since our first Hot/Not List, so I thought I'd post an updated one:

HOT

• Logitech Squeezebox - After Logitech's acquisition of Slim Devices, a lot of fans of the smaller company's products were concerned that innovation would halt and corporate fossilization would set in, as happens in so many of these cases. Well, it couldn't be further from the truth. Slim's innovative products are benefiting from Logitech's branding and distribution muscle and the combined firm is churning out really impressive audio streaming devices. Our home audio ecosystem now consists of a Squeezebox Duet controller, two receivers, and a Boom; these three cover about 80% of the house and it's wonderful to have perfectly synced music streamed throughout without breaking the bank.
  
• Palm - The Pre smartphone was the buzz of CES and is still making strong headlines at MWC. Sprint may have a winner on its hands with this new device.
  
• Sprint - Coming off a really impressive turnaround regarding its customer service and anticipation of its 4G wireless network, Sprint could be poised for strong growth in the next few years.
  
• Aptera - So far, this innovative hypermileage boutique car-maker in California has avoided some of the pitfalls that its performance-oriented sibling Tesla Motors has made, and the 2e vehicle it should be shipping very soon looks like it could be a key evolutionary link in transforming the way we think about cars.
  
• Twitter - Easily the most addictive thing I've tried recently.
  
• Windows 7 - Sure, it's still in beta, but I am SO looking forward to its release. As much as I've panned Vista over the years, I think 7 will be a winner.
  

NOT

• Cloud-Based Contact Management - Even with Google's recent improvements to Gmail Contacts, there are no really excellent cloud-friendly contact management solutions available. The best I've found is ClearSync, and that isn't as widely compatible as most would like.
• Battery Technology - Seriously...scientists and engineers have been working on this for decades and we're still not fundamentally better than we were 20 years ago.
• Obese Netbooks - Almost by definition, a "netbook" should be incredibly lightweight. Why, then, are we seeing netbooks weighing over 3 lbs released to market??
• Winter - by definition. I am quite ready for Spring, thanks very much.
• Digital Transition Delay - We set the date for February 17th, and now Congress is pushing it back to June 12 for those stations that want extra time. Why? Delaying it doesn't solve anything and, in fact, actually increases the costs of the conversion and sows more consumer confusion. Clearly a lose-lose proposition.

In July, 2002, Fujifilm and Olympus horrified digital photography fans by launching an all-new flash memory format, the xD-Picture Card. Why, nobody outside these two companies was sure, but it seems the grand experiment may be coming to an end.

Fujifilm has announced that an upcoming pocket point-and-shoot camera, the F200EXR, will accept both xD and SD/MMC memory formats. At least according to the folks at Crave.

I, for one, will be happy to pare down the ranks of incompatible flash memory formats. Sony, would you like to take your turn and off the noxious Memory Stick? Honestly, nobody will miss it...I promise.

I am in need of two new pieces of gear and would like YOUR suggestions and insights on what to get.

First, we need to replace our dead (kaput!) Series 1 TiVo. It lasted an amazing 7 years and change, but it has made the final ascent to the great Now Showing in the sky. So, what should we get to replace it? An HD TiVo? The HD XL TiVo? We have nothing but HD TVs in our house, so the Series 2 isn't terribly desirable. Or should we nix TiVo and go with a different brand altogether? We're on Time Warner Cable (despite their awfulness), in case that affects your recommendation.

Second, I need a smallish digital camera with a reasonable resolution (5MP+), but with as much optical zoom as possible (320mm and greater would be ideal). This is for use with the GigaPan Imager I acquired for work purposes. The GigaPan mount won't support something like a dSLR, so nothing that massive can be considered. What suggestions do you have for this purchase?

Thanks in advance for your comments, here on GearBits (using the form below), to me via Twitter (CRA1G), or via my Facebook account (Craig Froehle).

A mere 12 days ago, I posted GearBits' Predictions for 2009. To my surprise, some of them are already coming true:

3) Palm Launches New OS to Fanfare, Skepticism

I predicted that Palm would announce its new OS and show off at least one device at CES, which they did...in spades. While most coverage has been off-the-charts positive, there have been some nattering nabobs of negativism who feel there's just can't be a way for Palm to come back. Palm's next big hurdle is actually getting the Pre through FCC approval and into Sprint's stores.

7) Steve Jobs Announces Transition to New Role

My guess was that Jobs' health concerns were more serious than the public was being led to believe. Today, Jobs announced he was taking some time because his "health-related issues are more complex than [he] originally thought." Given Jobs' recent statement that his weight loss was due merely to an easily treatable hormone imbalance and expected no change from the status quo, this announcement shocked everyone. We hope for his quick recovery and return to doing the job he does so well.

10) Line Blurs between "Netbooks" and Notebooks/Laptops

My prediction stated that we would start seeing new models fill in the gap between the low-end netbooks and traditional (i.e., full-featured, more powerful, and more expensive) subnotes. At CES, there were a variety of netbooks announced. While most played the familiar tune of 1.6GHz Atom processor, 1GB of RAM, a hard drive, and an 8-10" screen running 1024x600, there were a couple of standouts. The most discussed was the Sony Vaio P, a 1.4-lb netbook (even though they don't want you to call it that) that rocks a 1600x768 screen and runs Vista (albeit slowly). At a price point of $900 (for the low-end unit), it clearly is aimed at the gap between typical netbooks and upscale ultraportables. Another, more obscure one that fills this gap is the Olidata Conte, a very capable machine that, when it comes to market, may cost around $1,000.

Update (1/25/09): Apparently, AMD (via Engadget) agrees with me; CEO Dirk Meyer said in an earnings call that "the distinction between what is a netbook and what is a laptop is going to go away...there will be a continuum of price points and form factors." Good to know the C-suite is listening to me. ;-)

Today at CES 2009 in Las Vegas, Palm launched their new mobile operating system, webOS, and promised the first device running webOS, the "Pre" smartphone, will be available on Sprint sometime in the first half of 2009. Exact timing depends at least partly on FCC and carrier certification, but you can bet Sprint will be eager to get this thing into its stores.

Some key features of the new webOS, according to Palm's presentation:
• Apps can developed using just CSS, HTML, and/or JavaScript
• Multi-tasking
• Internet-centric, integrated throughout all functions (e.g., search)
• Synergy technology combines contacts from online accounts (e.g., Facebook, Gmail) and local applications (e.g., Outlook), aggregates and syncs them on the phone, and eliminates duplicates
• All-new multi-instance web browser (buh-bye, Blazer)
• A notifications bar
• Integrated SMS and IM (via Synergy)

The Pre smartphone lists some impressive hardware specs:
• 320x480 HVGA multi-touch screen
• Slide-out QWERTY keyboard
• Rollerball for one-handed input
• 802.11b/g Wi-Fi
• Bluetooth with A2DP wireless audio
• 8GB of internal flash memory (can act as USB host)
• Texas Instruments' latest OMAP processor
• GPS
• EV-DO Rev. A
• Full-sized 3.5mm headphone jack
• 3MP camera with flash
• Removable battery (take that, Apple!)

And to just round out the wow factor, the Pre will come with be compatible with an optional wireless charger. Yes, wireless charger. You won't "plug in" the Pre, you'll just sit it on the Touchstone charging base and, through the magic of inductive power transmission, the phone will be recharged.

All in all, a very impressive new offering for Palm. If they can execute on this and get it into Sprint's stores quickly, they'll be well-positioned for a comeback.

Here's the full press release.

Once again, here are GearBits' prognostications for the coming year. If you're interested, check out how our predictions for 2008 panned out, or previous years' predictions.

1) Microsoft Launches Windows 7 to Fanfare, Skepticism
Microsoft's two pillars of financial solvency -- Windows and Office -- have been standing on shaky ground recently. Office 2007 was a decent hit, despite it not offering much new and causing significant backward compatibility issues. But Windows Vista, on the other hand, has been an unmitigated disaster. Microsoft even had to resort to tricking users into liking Vista (Mojave, anyone?), it had developed such a bad reputation. Windows 7 will be launched late in 2009 to a general consensus of "it's better," but will not be the "wow" that Microsoft needs to regain the market share it has recently ceded to Apple. But maybe that's a good thing...having strong competitors is usually a good thing for consumer markets.

2) Blockbuster Declares Bankruptcy
This may be a bit "out there," but I see exceedingly tough times at Blockbuster. And this isn't vindictiveness...I've been a reasonably happy Blockbuster.com customer for several years, now. I just think that, given the state of its business (poor), the weakness in the economy (near-critical), the nature of its service (luxury), and the rapidity with which that industry is transforming, I think Blockbuster will file for bankruptcy protection to get out of some of its debt, sell off some property (store locations that aren't faring well), and reinvest that into developing newer and more attractive services. So, they aren't going away...yet.

3) Palm Launches New OS to Fanfare, Skepticism
We've all heard the rumors that Palm will be launching "Nova," its replacement for the ancient Palm OS, at CES 2009 in a few days. I'm pretty sure that's going to happen. I'm also pretty sure that Palm will have at least one new device, if not several, running the new OS available by the end of June. While launching phones can take a while, given the carriers' lengthy testing requirements, launching a PDA doesn't, so Palm could certainly come out with two (or more) non-phone PDAs running Nova pretty quickly. And it needs to...the TX is older than my grandmother (at least in technology years). Generally, I predict there will be more nice things said about Nova, and the new devices, than critical, and it will stack up fairly competitively with Android and WM 6.5. What I do not have a lot of faith in is Palm's ability to develop and deliver the ecology of services (e.g., app stores) that customers are now expecting their smartphones to be integrated into. Time will tell on that front.

4) Blu-Ray Players Hit $99
During 2009, I think we'll see a raft of Korean and Taiwanese off-brand manufacturers launch budget Blu-Ray players. Just like the 2008 holiday sales saw BD players hit $149 in some stores, 2009 holiday sales will see them hit $99...if not sooner.

5) Apple Launches a Tablet to Fanfare
This has been a persistent rumor for years, but I think 2009 will see it actually happen. Why? A few reasons. First, Apple is looking to multi-touch as a key differentiator in its product lines, and having a full-screen, large-display MT device would make total sense. Second, it fits perfectly with the needs of the "creative class," Apple's core customer base. And third, it fills out a hole in their mobile product line that netbooks and other devices not running OS X fill nicely, and that's not a good thing for Apple. So, the technology is ready, the market is willing...and now I think Apple will be able to meet the demand.

6) Consolidation in the Entertainment Industry
2009 will be a strange year on a lot of dimensions. Not only will the stock market be hard to predict, there will be a lot of odd relationships come out of the mess. One industry that is still poised to make things happen is the entertainment industry, where I expect we'll see larger firms (e.g., major movie studios) start to acquire smaller, but very successful, examples from the newer media (e.g., game producers). A good example of the type of transaction I'm imagining would be Vivendi acquiring Ubisoft. I think Time Warner would love to swallow up Electronic Arts, but that might be a bit too big a bite unless something untoward happens to EA's stock price over the next year.

7) Steve Jobs Announces Transition to New Role
I think concerns over Jobs' health have more merit than most of us want to admit. In 2009, I expect him to announce that he's transitioning into a different role than President and CEO of Apple (and CEO of Pixar). Something that keeps him out of the spotlight while he deals with his health issues will be valuable to keep Apple's stock price up and customer base intact. The move towards reducing his presence in near-term product launches is consistent with this strategy. But, he's far from gone...his influence will still be felt behind the scenes, but we'll see less of him in his traditional role as Apple poster boy.

8) Facebook Membership Growth Flattens; Twitter Surges
Signs are pointing towards Facebook's popularity beginning to peak. Just as with everything social, when moms and dads begin to frequent the coffee shop, the kids need a new place to hang out. Facebook currently has almost 40 million members in the US. While that number has been skyrocketing since it opened up membership to anyone in September 2006, I think 2009 will see a marked deceleration in its growth. The loss of perceived exclusivity and the hassle of the relatively unprotected app space will combine to make it less appealing to many long-time users and new prospects will find fewer people urging them to get on board. Twitter, however, will see continued growth as it continues to tweak and adapt its environment to meet its core users' needs.

9) App Stores Dominate Mobile Software Delivery
iPhone's app store, Android's market...these types of bazaars, managed by the sponsors/manufacturers of the mobile operating systems, are coming to be the dominant mode for software distribution to mobile users. It marks a significant break from the traditional model, where mobile developers could sell software from their own sites, through 3rd party aggregators, and through carriers. This new approach is more streamlined, making it easier for users, but also more controlled, which can make it harder to accommodate large and complex ecosystems. The fact that each of the existing app stores serves a relatively small market is why we haven't seen these problems emerge to a point where they start driving users away. 2009 will see continued movement towards these controlled markets and away from the free-form/multi-channel models that previous mobile generations (e.g., Palm OS, Windows Mobile) relied on.

10) Line Blurs between "Netbooks" and Notebooks/Laptops
Netbooks are currently a fairly homogeneous, and well-defined, niche of laptop computers. Most of them have an Intel Atom processor, a screen from 8.9" to 10" in size, no optical drive, weigh between 2.2 and 3 lbs, and cost $300-$500. There's a big gap in pricing then between these netbooks and the subnotebooks/ultraportables that often have slightly larger screens, way more RAM and processing power, and cost $1,500 or more. To paraphrase the old adage, markets abhor a vacuum, so I expect we'll start seeing all manner of new small notebooks come into the market in this $500-$1000 range sporting screens in the 9"-12" range with anything from 512MB to 2GB of RAM, a variety of operating systems (XP and Linux will continue to be most popular), and a range of processing and display capabilities. Not everyone needs to play Crysis on their notebook, but not everyone can get by with a 1024x600 screen and do everything inside their browser.

So, there you have it...GearBits' predictions for 2009. Some are probably pretty safe bets, and some are bound to be wrong. What do you think will happen?

Each year, we at GearBits post some predictions for the coming year. And then, in the interest of honesty, fairness, and self-deprecation, we take a look back to see how we did. Each of our predictions for 2008 are listed below, along with an update on what actually happened.

1) Blu-Ray Wins the Format War
Yep, I'm going to pick a winner and it's going to be Blu-Ray. The one-two punch of Warner Brothers's move to Blu-Ray exclusivity (from its Switzerland-like neutrality of supporting both formats) later in 2008 and Apple's announcement that BD will be the only HD format available in its products will cement HD DVD's demise. And none too soon. I don't really care which wins...just make it snappy so that prices on players and media can plummet, thanks.

As of now, the end of 2008, it seems like forever since Blu-Ray trounced HD DVD in the format war. But back in early January, it was anyone's guess. But then, on February 18th, Toshiba officially threw in the towel. Interestingly, the Warner Bros. move I thought would happen eventually was actually announced the day after I posted my predictions. Of course, Apple hasn't yet released any products with any form of HD optical drive, so that bit wasn't exactly spot on. And I'm still waiting for my $99 Blu-Ray player. But, overall, this prediction looks pretty solid.

2) Google's Android Shakes Up Phone Industry
For a while now, the cellphone industry has been fairly static. A few smartphone and mobile OS makers have generally tussled for market share, but the overall industry has been pretty evolutionary. Google's entry will prove to be a watershed moment, with open source finally making a big impact in the handheld space (and no, I don't consider the Zaurus to be a big deal...sorry). Actual handsets running Android will be announced, if not available, before the end of 2008.

Depending on your threshold for "shaking up" the phone industry, I think most people would agree that Android made quite a splash in 2008 when the HTC G1 was launched on T-Mobile in the US on September 23rd. And we've already heard of around a dozen hardware makers signed on to release Android handsets. While handset sales still pale in comparison to the iPhone, 2009 looks like it just might be the year of the Android.

3) Palm Supports Android
This is more of a hope than an actual prediction, as I just don't know whether the egos at Palm will let the company do the right thing and admit that their next-generation OS (which has been under development since 2004!) will be a viable contender against Android (which has essentially the same technical details but scads more developer support). But, if cooler, more rational heads prevail at Palm, they'll announce that they're plans will be to produce at least one Android-based product (probably to come out sometime in 2012 :-/ ).

Ouch...I couldn't have been more wrong. While I still think Palm would have been smart to advance their product refurbishment by a full year (maybe more) by going with Android instead of continuing to pursue Nova, the company stuck to its original, go-it-alone plans. We'll see how well that pans out in 2009.

4) Microsoft's HD Photo Replacement for JPEG Image Standard Goes Nowhere
I'm not saying it's a bad idea technically; I'm just saying that JPEG is so entrenched now that replacing it would be about as reasonable a thing to try as would be replacing MP3 with any of the multitudes of better formats. JPEG, like MP3, isn't great, but it's adequate (at least for consumers) and ubiquitous. We'll still be saving all our photos in JPG (and maybe RAW) at the end of 2008...and likely long after that.

JPEG XR, the official name of Microsoft's HD Photo format, has generated essentially zero traction in the camera industry. Part of that is Microsoft's less-than-swift transition of JPEG XR into its quasi-open licensing portfolio, a move that will have to happen for camera makers and developers to trust that they won't be bitten by huge licensing fees in the future if they move their products away from RAW to JPEG XR.

5) Subnotes Will Explode in Availability (and Maybe Popularity)
I've always been a fan of tiny, sub-3-pound laptops, but I think 2008 will see a huge number of these clamshell devices come out of every corner of the consumer electronics space. The Asus EeePC and the OLPC XO Laptop are two examples. While Microsoft had a good idea in its UMPC (Ultra-Mobile PC) concept, the hardware was just never executed all that well. Frankly, I think a 7" touchscreen for Windows is just too difficult. But, going with the traditional clamshell design and using cheaper and/or smaller technologies (e.g., flash memory instead of a HDD) will bring us a raft of interesting (and some good) designs at <$500 price points. Bring 'em on! And I think we'll start to see a lot more people toting these things along that traditionally avoided laptops for whatever reason (cost, weight, etc.).

Bingo. If the shelves at Best Buy and Circuit City are any indication, these "netbooks" (the now-favored term...at least by everyone except Psion) have multiplied faster than Tribbles on Cialis. One glance at the huuuge list of netbooks over at small-notebooks.com is enough evidence to suggest that this prediction was spot on.

6) The GPS War Heats Up
TomTom, Nokia, and Garmin will exchange hostile fire over the GPS market due to convuluted agreements regarding mapping data as well as market-share for hardware. Products will continue to decline in price and improve in functionality, and >50% of cellphones will have some form of GPS functionality available on them. I guess that's two predictions in one...oh well.

I'm going to give myself this one. While we haven't heard that much more about the complex licensing agreements involving the big three, you need only walk through a Staples, Radio Shack, or Target to see a vast assortment of portable GPS units now available for under $150, most even having text-to-speech and other advanced functions. That's in direct comparison to late last year, when it was difficult to find a decent unit for under $300.

7) DRM Hits Choppy Water
2007 saw some movement away from DRM (digital rights management), especially in the music industry, but I expect we'll see similar initiatives in all areas of media. DRM has been proven again and again to be little more than an expensive technological boondoggle, and the leading innovators at the consumer media interface (e.g., Apple, Amazon, and Google) will make some headway into reversing the trend of more encumbrance for our media. The RIAA and MPAA will continue to fight it...they know how to do nothing else...but economic results will start to demonstrate that DRM actually hurts profitability.

Nope...we didn't hear much consistent with my prediction. While some markets moved towards offering DRM-free downloads, most are still heavily laden. And the RIAA actually reversed its strategy and is now no longer suing everyone and their mother for alleged downloading. So that's two different ways I was off on this one. Just goes to show that there's no telling what the content owners are thinking.

8) Major Tech Stocks End 2008 Up Significantly
These are bound to be wrong, but what the heck...nobody pays me for stock tips. I think Apple will end 2008 at 235, Google will be at 960, and Microsoft will finish the year at 50. As for other stocks, iRobot will end up at either 46 or 12 (can you tell I'm a cynical shareholder?), IBM will show tepid growth to 112, and RIM, hurt by the continued weak US dollar and facing increasing competition, will struggle to match its 1-year high of 127.

Uh, no. While I doubt many saw the massive downturn in stocks coming, tech stocks are decidedly not even slightly better off than most. Let's see how my specific price predictions held up:
  • Apple (AAPL): Predicted = 235; Actual = 86.29
  • Google (GOOG): Predicted = 960; Actual = 303.11
  • Microsoft (MSFT): Predicted = 50; Actual = 19.34
  • iRobot (IRBT): Predicted = 46 or 12; Actual = 8.95
  • IBM (IBM): Predicted = 112; Actual = 83.55
  • Research in Motion (RIMM): Predicted = 127; Actual = 38.77
In summary, do not ask me to manage your stock portfolio...you would be better served by setting your money on fire, as then you could at least stay warm for a while.

9) I Buy a New Laptop and Am Disappointed
My Panasonic CF-W2 is now three-and-a-half-years-old and I'm starting to cringe every time I turn it on (my luck with hard drives makes me skeptical of many living past their 4th birthday). I've been looking at possible replacements (e.g., Toshiba R500, Panasonic W7, maybe the Lenovo IdeaPad U110 or the rumored Apple subnote) and so far every single one has some significant trade-offs. So, I expect I'll get one and it will turn out to be not significantly better than my aging Toughbook. You'd think in nearly four years that two grand would buy something markedly superior. We'll see...

Unfortunately, I was right on this. The Fujitsu LifeBook P8010 I ended up purchasing in February is a good laptop...don't get me wrong. It's just not a heads-and-shoulders better laptop than my ToughBook was, and that's what I was expecting given the nearly 4 years newer technology and the $2500 it cost. And, given that I've already had to send it in for a repair (the power button broke off), I'm guessing the durability won't even come close to that of the Panasonic (which I still use regularly around the house).

10) Major Changes in Automotive Industry Announced
While the car business makes actual change only very slowly, we'll see some huge announcements in 2008 that will fundamentally change the future of that industry. Things like record oil prices, an increasing attention to sustainable/green technology, and significant ownership changes will substantially change the competitive landscape. Make no mistake; Toyota will continue its ascent and eclipse GM as #1 car-maker in the world. But, we will see several major announcements that will start affecting actual consumers in 2009 and beyond.

While I didn't get the stock predictions exactly right (OK, not even close), I think it's safe to say that the US automotive industry has been shaken up with major changes during 2008. We saw record oil prices (check!), more attention to green tech (check!), and the bottom dropping out of US consumption didn't leave them anywhere to go except to the Congress for help. And Toyota did indeed become the biggest carmaker in the world in 2008, just as predicted. Let's hope the Volt truly is something special...for all our sakes.

So, there you have it: our final score is 7 winners and 3 losers. I'll take it. :-)

In a couple of days, I'll be posting GearBits' predictions for 2009, so make sure you come back and check those out, m'kay?

In some ways, my German heritage makes me a penny pincher and a tech laggard. For example, I finally bought my first digital television to make sure the guests can watch football over the Thanksgiving holidays. (A cheap 46" Sharp AQUOS LC-46C55U 1080p 60Hz LCD from Costco.)

Step 1 Buy TV. Check!
Step 2, Order FiOS HD DVR box. (I'm too cheap to buy a HD Tivo, at least for now.) Arrived in 24 hours! Check. Hey, this FiOS "On Demand" is nice. Save that topic for another blog post.
Step 3, Hook up computer for 46" home office monitor goodness. Doh! My wired keyboard looks terrible here. Time to go cordless.

What's up with all these wireless keyboard and mouse combos? Who can mouse well on a couch? Wireless mouse at a desk, sure. But Wireless keyboard at a desk? Are cables inherently evil? If you're at a desk, use a corded keyboard and save some batteries.

I'm an unashamed ThinkPad trackpoint fanboy, but I can't find wireless keyboard with a trackpoint. Bummer. I'm stuck with either a trackpad or a trackball. The Logitech diNovo Edge looks extemely cool, but (a) it's pricey, (b) needs space to sit and charge in a cradle and (c) some people don't like its touchdisc whatzit.

DiNovo Edge touch disc?

Then I happened across this Logitech PS3 Mediaboard Pro. No "keyboard" in the product name, so it didn't show up on many of my earlier product searches. Don't be scared by the "PS3" -- it also supports PCs over Bluetooth.

While it looks only 2/3 as cool as the diNovo Edge, it's 1/3 the price of the Edge, doesn't need a charging cradle, and received good reviews. People even liked the Mediaboard's trackpad. "One click" on Amazon, and here it comes.

Did I screw up ordering this? Chime in if you have a favorite media keyboard.

Logitech PS3 Mediaboard Pro

With the election behind us, I need some gear chat to help forget about collapsing 401Ks.

My wife and I work at home a lot. When I run the microwave, it completely disconnects the wifi connection on her Dell D610. My ThinkPad doesn't have this problem, go figure. Anyway, I don't always remember to warn her that I'm going to nuke lunch.

Her office is two floors away from the hub, so a Cat5 run isn't really an easy option. I had checked out Ethernet over Power options previously, but they were a little expensive. No longer.

I found a pair of Panasonic BL-PA100A HD-PLC Ethernet adaptors on Amazon for $65. They are faster than my 802.11g, work when the microwave is on, and are very easy to setup. No software required. So far, it hasn't added any complexity to the laptop undocking process, either. I like it so much, I just ordered a extra one to connect my media PC.

One caution -- they prefer to be placed directly into an outlet. They are not happy in extension cords or power strips.

When I nuke lunch, I still gasp when I realize that I forgot to shout out a warning. I imagine that reflex will go away soon.

If you've been hiding under a rock for the past 48 hours or so, you may not have head of Ubiquity, an amazing alpha release of what may be one day heralded as something that changed everything.

It's hard to explain, but basically, this browser plug-in allows the user to create mash-ups, or concoctions of web content, dynamically, as needed, through a simple, language-based interface. No programming, no obscure commands to remember.

Watch the demo video to see what I mean:

Ubiquity for Firefox from Aza Raskin on Vimeo.

Then download it.

If you're not already a Firefox 3.x user, then get that first.

The variety of online tools to help us organize our lives, work with others, and generally get stuff done is just exploding. I've tried to capture some in the list below, but I'm hoping you, dear readers, will leave a comment naming some other tools you like to use.

Webmail
• Gmail - threaded conversations, search

Chat
• Google Talk (integrates conversations with Gmail)

Real-Time Group Collaboration
• Basecamp
• Campfire
• Stickam: group videoconferencing
• Skype: 1-on-1 tele- & videoconferencing, chat, file xfer

File-Sharing
• DropSend (1 GB max size)
• Wikisend (100 MB max size)

Wikis
• WetPaint

Document Sharing
• Google docs

Microblogging
• Twitter

Personal Time Management
• Remember the Milk - Web-based to-do list & task organizer with multi-media reminders

Social Bookmarking/Referral
• Delicious - "Delicious is a social bookmarking service that allows users to tag, save, manage and share web pages from a centralized source. With emphasis on the power of the community, Delicious greatly improves how people discover, remember and share on the Internet."
• Digg - "Digg is a place for people to discover and share content from anywhere on the web."

Note Management
• Evernote: Desktop + Web, with wicked OCR for images

Time.com has positively deviated from the typical "gas prices are awful, aren't they?" approach most journalists take when writing about the fuel situation. Instead of adding to the incessant yammering about how life is going down the crapper because of $4 gas, they decide to highlight 10 positives that might come about because of it:

1. Globalized jobs return home
   
2. Sprawl stalls
   
3. 4-day work weeks
   
4. Less pollution
   
5. More frugal use of transportation
   
6. Fewer traffic deaths
   
7. Cheaper car insurance
   
8. Less traffic
   
9. More cops out of their cars
   
10. Less obesity

Now, I'm not confident all these will happen just because of high gas prices, but you have to give them a nod for at least trying to remind us that some good will likely come out of this.

Read the whole story here.

Mitch, seeing my Hot/Not list from yesterday, compiled his own, so here it is:

HOT

• iPod Touch - I tried the Archos 605 Wi-Fi first and its mediocrity makes the Touch that much more delightful. I really love well done user interfaces and this one is first rate. My only complaint is its picky eating habits when it comes to video formats.
  
• iMac - I waited longer than any other tech purchase to finally go with Apple's all-in-one desktop PC. I opted for the top of the line 3.06 GHz 24" model and have been completely blown away by it. So far I have found no flaws. It is stunning.
  
• High Gas Prices - Innovation rocks and if it takes $5/gallon gasoline to get us out of this oil addiction then I'm more than willing to pay my dues. Fewer SUVs and pickups, electric cars, solar energy, alternative fuels, more big butts on bicycles, less traffic congestion; I'm all for it. Let's drop our consumption by half and let OPEC drink their devalued crude.
  
• Synology - A NAS will soon be as ubiquitous on a home network as the router is today. The clever, feature-filled offerings from Synology are the best of the breed. I'll have a DS508 please!
  
• Subaru - Totally agree with Craig here. I've been
  in Imprezas now going on six years and I still feel like I'm cheating when I share the road with normal cars. Scoobys are fabulous.
  
• Ken Follett's Historical Novels - "The Pillars of the Earth" and "World Without End" are two of my favorite books of all time and I just took them in this Spring. I listened to both on my iPod (over 40 hours each) after downloading them from Audible and they made a month of 1000 mile weekly commutes totally enjoyable. Masterful stuff.
  
• CrossFit - I was in good shape 20 years ago and at 44 I can wipe the floor with my 24 year old self (if that was possible). I've been CrossFitting for almost a year now and some of the things I can do now would have seemed outlandish back then.

NOT

• General Motors - If you Google dinosaur, out of touch, lethargic, and unimaginative you should pull up GM's home page. I used to be a fan, but they have been disappointing me for 25 years now and don't seem to be planning any big changes. The sooner they finish themselves off, the better off we'll be.
  
• Labor Unions - Working in the industrial world I cross paths with unions
  of all sorts way more than I would like. I completely understand why our manufacturing sector is fleeing to other countries. I have never seen such a lazy, selfish, destructive, regressive bunch of people in my life. They can't all be like that, but the ones I've met surely are.
  
• Sheeple-Filled Corporate IT Departments - My 26,000 strong corporation is going to switch to Vista because they don't want to be left with no anti-virus support for their XP platform. Goodbye nice warm frying pan and hello fire.
  
• Cable/Satellite TV - I'm SO tired of paying $80 a month for a bunch of
  garbage that I would never watch even if I had the time. It won't be long until I cut that cord and start rolling my own TV. If I could just decide which way I want to do it!
  
• Global Markets - I realize that even the lowliest trader in/on most investment banks/trading floors/commodities exchanges is smarter than I am, but I would really love to see them use those brains rather than run with every emotion that riffles through the world markets. Do investors even pay attention to P/E ratios or supply and demand or is it all about what the hot analyst is saying or the sheeple are doing?

I've been remiss on posting, so I thought I'd assemble a whole mess of opinions in one place. Over the past several weeks or so, I've come to appreciate some things/companies and have come to be disappointed in others. So, here's a quick run-down:

HOT

• Shutterfly - always gets me great-looking prints/books in a timely manner at low prices.
  
• Google - just keeps rolling out the innovative, useful, and well-designed web apps
  
• Subaru - they just make terrific cars...durable, high-performing, and affordable
  
• Amazon.com - with reasonably good, if not great, prices, excellent customer service, and a stellar website, what's not to like?
  
• Subnotes - The sudden rash of low-power, low-weight, cheap laptops coming out (which I predicted would happen back at the beginning of the year) is a joy to behold...portable computing for everyone!
  
• NPR - Always informative, enjoyable, and worth supporting.
  
• Logitech Cordless Presenter - Have had it for two years now, am still on the first set of AAA batteries, it has taken tons of abuse, and it still works perfectly. Amazing!
  
• Private Electric Car Companies - It's as if we're on the cusp of another time like the 1920's, when every town seemed to have a local car manufacturer, except now they're all electric, hybrid, or alterna-fuel vehicles (a very good thing).

NOT

• Archos - if my 605 Wi-Fi completely hangs on me one more time, I swear I'm going to chuck it off an overpass (I'll post more about this later)
  
• Palm - if my Treo 700p resets on me one more time, I swear I'm going to chuck...aw, who am I kidding? It'll probably reset before I finish this post. C'mon Android...fill this void in my gadget-hoarding soul, will you?
  
• Megalomaniacal Corporate IT Departments - I hope the day comes soon when we can definitively show that the TCO actually improves when you let corporate tech users select their own personal devices.
  
• Flash memory format proliferation - I mean, seriously, do we really need SD, MiniSD, and MicroSD? It's getting as bad as the dang Memory Stick (and that's saying something).
  
• Download-only music stores - I may be in the minority, but I just don't like the DRM associated with most online music stores. And even without the DRM, the cost seems too much if I'm not getting permanent physical media, liner notes/art, etc. Call me old school if you like...go ahead, it only hurts a little.
  
• Intel's Marketing department - Seriously, guys, could you make keeping track of your product lines any more difficult and confusing?
  
• Getting older - I am no longer the kid I still think of myself as being.
  

So what are your Hot and Not?

It's hard being a visionary; nobody knows you're right until well after you did, and by then it may be too late.

Take Dean Kamen, for example. Inventor of over 27.3 million different gizmos, his much-maligned Segway was supposed to redefine how we think of cities.

It didn't. Not even close.

Now, more than seven years after its debut, they're still quite rare.

Well, they're going to be a little less rare, at least in one Ohio town. Hamilton has bought several Segways for its police force to patrol the streets in...er, on...whichever.

My question is this: if Hamilton wanted to buy something for its officers to use that reduced energy costs, why not just buy them bicycles? Five grand will get you a really nice mountain bike. Or three.

Yesterday at lunch I demonstrated for a colleague a rather ridiculous, Rube Goldbergian reminder mechanism consisting of Web 2.0 information management and communication tools.

I called Jott and told it to contact Sandy with a message to feed the parking meter in 30 minutes. A half hour later, Sandy sent my Twitter account a direct message, which ended up arriving to my phone via text message. I also had an email message waiting for me, just in case.

Sure, it's absurd to do something like that for a task so trivial as reminding yourself to refresh a parking meter, but it does demonstrate how amazingly interconnected these mobile/web tools are becoming.

Over at Gizmodo, I came across this entry musing about the pervasiveness of text messaging (apparently not written by a European):

"...I began to wonder about the phenomenon of text messaging as a whole. Sometimes it seems that it would make more sense to call or send an email, but that crap is for old people."

Perhaps I'm mistaken in believing the merits of email should be obvious and that nobody can honestly believe that texting is superior for all, or even most, occasions. So, I thought I'd put together a brief table outlining what I consider the advantages of each technology:

	Text Messaging	Email	Comments
Synchronicity (absence of delay between send and receive)	High Near-instantaneous delivery	Moderate Delivery can be delayed	A clear advantage for texting
Convenience	High Included in all phones	Moderate Increasingly common	Not as much of a difference as even a year ago
Ease-of-Use	High	High	Good mobile email clients are no harder to use than most Texting interfaces
Flexibility	Low 160-character limit	High What can't email do?	Attachments, long messages, and rich text are all things email does easily but that texting doesn't do well, if at all
Archiving	Low no long-term storage	High email archives are forever	Some messages you don't care about referencing in the future, but can you be sure when you send it that you won't care?
Cost	High $0.10+ apiece when not bought in bulk	Low Free with any Internet service	Some may find this contentious, but I pay extra for texting on my cellular account whereas email is just part of my overall Internet connectivity fee

I think the biggest drawback I see to texting is the whole temporal retention issue. I rely extensively on my ability to search through my emails, both professional and personal, sometimes going back years to look up something. In contrast, I don't know anyone who saves their text messages for even more than a few months. I asked a classful of college seniors how long they kept text messages on their phones. Less than 10% keep them longer than a week!

Do I txt? Yep, everyday, but I still use email a lot more. I'm not going to pull the "age = wisdom" card and claim that "old people" (per the Gizmodo story) use email more because they're wiser (I'm not even sure I'd be considered "old"), but my perception is that email offers a lot of advantages that texting just can't match right now.

Google's wonderful Docs suite (browser-based alternatives to the core Microsoft Office apps) now lets you work on your documents while offline.

Check out this Google Docs Blog entry and the little video. It looks pretty easy...can't wait to try it out.

A lot of devices have electro-mechanical controls that can degrade over time. Take the pair of Kilpsch ProMedia 2.0 PC speakers I've had for a few years as an example.

Recently, the volume knob started introducing lots of static/noise whenever it was turned, sometimes throwing off the L/R balance or even dropping out the volume altogether. More fiddling would fix it, but it was annoying.

At this point, most people would simply replace the speakers. But I really like these; they sound utterly fantastic for a 2.0 setup. So I set about finding a fix.

It turns out that the 1-2 punch of CAIG Laboratories DeOxit cleaner followed by DeOxit ProGold contact preservative (which I got from RadioShack.com) was just the trick. After cracking open the speaker with the controls, I spritzed the cleaner into the potentiometer and worked the knob back and forth. Then, a few minutes later, I spritzed in the ProGold to help protect the contacts, and worked the knob a bit more.

A half-hour later, I reassembled the speaker, plugged everything back in and it's perfect. The volume knob is now silky smooth and there's no sign of drop-outs or static. For $15, this sure beats trying to replace some fantastic speakers.

Apple's iPhone and MacBook Air have come to represent cutting-edge, state-of-the-art consumer electronics. We're approaching the iPhone's first birthday and Wired magazine is still calling it "handset of the moment -- maybe even the next few moments."

And the MacBook Air was popular enough last month to single-handedly account for 20% of Apple's notebook computer sales. Any way you slice it, that's impressive.

So what is it that keeps me from getting excited about these products?

I don't think I'm biased for or against Apple. We have a Mac Mini in the house and I'm always happy to see strong competitors in the personal computing space. So I don't think it's any sort of systematic unwillingness to accept Apple's products.

I'd like to think it's the technology. Sure, the iPhone and the MBA are pretty. The iPhone has a user interface that's somewhat innovative, and the Air is very, very svelte. But beyond that, I see more sacrifices than benefits.

The iPhone is a keyboardless EDGE handset with no expansion card slot. To me, that's three strikes right there. I feel like I need a real keyboard; I use the stink out of my Treo's EVDO connection and would dread going back to EDGE speeds; and, as far as I'm concerned, SD cards are the new floppy disk (i.e., ubiquitous). And then there's the issue of the non-user-replaceable battery. Ugh.

Similarly, the MacBook Air is rife with trade-offs: you don't get a removable battery, internal optical drive, Ethernet port, or VGA output (all things I rely on pretty frequently). Yes, it's light, but not markedly more so than many other laptops (for one, my 12.1" Fujitsu subnote weighs less). And don't get me started on the decision to hamstring it by including just a single USB port!

So, is it me? Am I somehow missing the real benefit of these devices? I'll admit, I've always been a function-over-form kinda guy, so is it that obsession with features that is blinding me to the design, or some other source of value entirely?

Or, am I more normal than I think, and it's it just that the media and a significant part of the digerati who write about this stuff have different utility functions than most of the rest of us?

The 605 WiFi, a fifth-generation portable media player from the French electronics firm Archos, is an impressive device. It boasts a vivid, high-res 4.3" touchscreen, 802.11g Wi-Fi (more on that later), and the ability to handle a reasonably broad array of media formats (although the larger, more expensive Cowon A3 handles far more). Plus, the 605 WiFi is available with hard drives of 30, 80, and 160 gigabytes or with 4GB of flash storage (the flash model also sports an SDHC slot for unlimited expansion). This review focuses on the 4GB flash version, which can be had for under $200 online and at a few brick-and-mortar electronics retailers.

As has become customary around the changing of the calendar, here are GearBits' official predictions for 2008.

1) Blu-Ray Wins the Format War
Yep, I'm going to pick a winner and it's going to be Blu-Ray. The one-two punch of Warner Brothers's move to Blu-Ray exclusivity (from its Switzerland-like neutrality of supporting both formats) later in 2008 and Apple's announcement that BD will be the only HD format available in its products will cement HD DVD's demise. And none too soon. I don't really care which wins...just make it snappy so that prices on players and media can plummet, thanks.

2) Google's Android Shakes Up Phone Industry
For a while now, the cellphone industry has been fairly static. A few smartphone and mobile OS makers have generally tussled for market share, but the overall industry has been pretty evolutionary. Google's entry will prove to be a watershed moment, with open source finally making a big impact in the handheld space (and no, I don't consider the Zaurus to be a big deal...sorry). Actual handsets running Android will be announced, if not available, before the end of 2008.

3) Palm Supports Android
This is more of a hope than an actual prediction, as I just don't know whether the egos at Palm will let the company do the right thing and admit that their next-generation OS (which has been under development since 2004!) will be a viable contender against Android (which has essentially the same technical details but scads more developer support). But, if cooler, more rational heads prevail at Palm, they'll announce that they're plans will be to produce at least one Android-based product (probably to come out sometime in 2012 :-/ ).

4) Microsoft's HD Photo Replacement for JPEG Image Standard Goes Nowhere
I'm not saying it's a bad idea technically; I'm just saying that JPEG is so entrenched now that replacing it would be about as reasonable a thing to try as would be replacing MP3 with any of the multitudes of better formats. JPEG, like MP3, isn't great, but it's adequate (at least for consumers) and ubiquitous. We'll still be saving all our photos in JPG (and maybe RAW) at the end of 2008...and likely long after that.

5) Subnotes Will Explode in Availability (and Maybe Popularity)
I've always been a fan of tiny, sub-3-pound laptops, but I think 2008 will see a huge number of these clamshell devices come out of every corner of the consumer electronics space. The Asus EeePC and the OLPC XO Laptop are two examples. While Microsoft had a good idea in its UMPC (Ultra-Mobile PC) concept, the hardware was just never executed all that well. Frankly, I think a 7" touchscreen for Windows is just too difficult. But, going with the traditional clamshell design and using cheaper and/or smaller technologies (e.g., flash memory instead of a HDD) will bring us a raft of interesting (and some good) designs at <$500 price points. Bring 'em on! And I think we'll start to see a lot more people toting these things along that traditionally avoided laptops for whatever reason (cost, weight, etc.).

6) The GPS War Heats Up
TomTom, Nokia, and Garmin will exchange hostile fire over the GPS market due to convuluted agreements regarding mapping data as well as market-share for hardware. Products will continue to decline in price and improve in functionality, and >50% of cellphones will have some form of GPS functionality available on them. I guess that's two predictions in one...oh well.

7) DRM Hits Choppy Water
2007 saw some movement away from DRM (digital rights management), especially in the music industry, but I expect we'll see similar initiatives in all areas of media. DRM has been proven again and again to be little more than an expensive technological boondoggle, and the leading innovators at the consumer media interface (e.g., Apple, Amazon, and Google) will make some headway into reversing the trend of more encumbrance for our media. The RIAA and MPAA will continue to fight it...they know how to do nothing else...but economic results will start to demonstrate that DRM actually hurts profitability.

8) Major Tech Stocks End 2008 Up Significantly
These are bound to be wrong, but what the heck...nobody pays me for stock tips. I think Apple will end 2008 at 235, Google will be at 960, and Microsoft will finish the year at 50. As for other stocks, iRobot will end up at either 46 or 12 (can you tell I'm a cynical shareholder?), IBM will show tepid growth to 112, and RIM, hurt by the continued weak US dollar and facing increasing competition, will struggle to match its 1-year high of 127.

9) I Buy a New Laptop and Am Disappointed
My Panasonic CF-W2 is now three-and-a-half-years-old and I'm starting to cringe every time I turn it on (my luck with hard drives makes me skeptical of many living past their 4th birthday). I've been looking at possible replacements (e.g., Toshiba R500, Panasonic W7, maybe the Lenovo IdeaPad U110 or the rumored Apple subnote) and so far every single one has some significant trade-offs. So, I expect I'll get one and it will turn out to be not significantly better than my aging Toughbook. You'd think in nearly four years that two grand would buy something markedly superior. We'll see...

10) Major Changes in Automotive Industry Announced
While the car business makes actual change only very slowly, we'll see some huge announcements in 2008 that will fundamentally change the future of that industry. Things like record oil prices, an increasing attention to sustainable/green technology, and significant ownership changes will substantially change the competitive landscape. Make no mistake; Toyota will continue its ascent and eclipse GM as #1 car-maker in the world. But, we will see several major announcements that will start affecting actual consumers in 2009 and beyond.

So, I'll check back in about 12 months to see how I fared. In the meantime, what do you think will happen?

Our One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) device arrived in the mail today. We participated in the Give One Get One campaign (we bought two; one was sent to us and the other was donated to a developing area of the world somewhere).

After less than an hour with it, I'm pretty amazed at the hardware that's packed into this little guy, especially for the price of <$200. Sure, the processor is a little slow for handling complex Flash-enabled websites, and you won't win any speed races initiating apps, but it has just an amazing mesh Wi-Fi interface (which allows instant sharing amongst other OLPCs of most activities on any one of them), an embedded webcam, and a whole host of pre-installed applications (from a music mixer to drawing to a web browser to a journal/notebook and so on).

I'm not sure it is a better solution for a kid's school laptop if that kid has access to regular electricity and his/her parents can scrape up the cash for an Asus EeePC or cheapie Dell (I just saw one in a flyer for <$370), but as it was designed for children in third-world countries, I think it should be a great fit for any kid 5+ who wants to just explore what computers can do.

Photo borrowed from the OLPC website.

Update: I just noticed that our unit does not have the two "keyboard LEDs" shown in the above pic. I wonder why not...they'd be handy for nighttime 'puting.

I've not posted about much technology recently. For that, I truly apologize. This is, after all, GearBits. So, to fill that void, here's a brief recap of some gadget and gear acquisitions over the last six months or so (and why they're my picks).

GPS: Garmin Nuvi 370
After borrowing Mitch's Garmin for a recent roadtrip to the Smoky Mountains, I was hooked. The Nuvi 370 is a terrific combination of features and portability. Text-to-speech keeps my eyes on the road and the bright screen and simple menu system makes it an easy-to-use travel aid. Plus, it's small and light enough to take with you on a walkabout, as I did recently when hiking around San Francisco.

TV: Samsung LNT-5271F 52" 1080p LCD
Yeah, this is a bit over-the-top, but I told my wife that I reserved the right to redo the basement TV setup if I got my promotion at work (I did). So far, it's a really nice TV. The first one died on me (the screen went weird a week into the relationship), but this second one is doing fine. Discovery HD Theater has never been more impressive, although crappy SD cable channels now look just as crappy, but bigger. Now I just need to start working on a way to justify getting a Blu-Ray/HD DVD combo player.

A/V Receiver: Onkyo TX-SR705
As part of the upgrade of the basement TV area, our old receiver just had to be replaced. It was ca. 1996, so its idea of "A/V" meant two composite video inputs. The Onkyo is a nice balance between performance (100W x 7 and 3 HDMI inputs + upconversion) and bulk. It definitely is more capable than the Yamaha it replaced (although the Yamaha still sounds great).

DVD Player: Oppo DV-981HD
The new TV quickly showed just how awful our previous DVD player was. I shouldn't have been surprised, really. After all, it was a Sony VHS + progressive scan DVD combo unit that I got from Woot.com for like $40 last year. Man, the video signal it put out, even over component, just made my eyes bleed. The Oppo, on the other hand, makes standard-definition DVDs look really quite excellent, even converting them to 1080p and outputting via HDMI. Its video-processing circuitry is optimized for getting the best possible picture quality off those 480p discs we all know and love. And it's way cheaper than a high-def DVD player.

Media Streamer: DivX Connected (Beta)
I was invited to be part of the public beta of the DivX Connected wireless/wired media streamer concept platform that the DivX folks are currently refining in preparation for licensed production with D-Link. Suffice to say that it's a really nice user experience; much, much better than all of the other media streamers I've used that are supposed to handle video. I hope DivX and D-Link do well with it...I'd definitely consider buying one.

Networking: TRENDnet TEG-S80TXE Gigabit 8-Port Switch
I know, wired networking is a little tame, but when you can get a reliable, all-metal, 8-port Gbit switch for $23 (after Newegg.com rebate), it's worth noting.

Oh, and I've found that MonoPrice.com has some terrific quality cables and audio parts (e.g., speaker mounts) at really excellent prices. Shipping is fast and cheap, too.

So, that about wraps it up for now. Any questions about these items, feel free to post a comment.

CNN has an interesting story on the origins of the smiley emoticon :-) that is now ubiquitous.

However, I'm still waiting on Strunk & White to nail down how it should get used with punctuation. ;-)

Discovery.com has a cool story about how PDAs are being used in African wildlife conservation efforts.

Aug. 1, 2007 - In Africa, one might expect to see a lion with a fresh kill, a baboon with a toothy grin, or an elephant with its herd. But a Bushman with a PalmPilot? It's possible.

Expert hunters and gatherers such as the Bushmen, the indigenous people of the Kalahari Desert, are being equipped with smart phones with special software for tracking plants and animals. Called CyberTracker, the free program combines a database of icons of animals and plants with GPS software to allow people who cannot read or write to record complex information.

Conservationists use the information to create maps and charts of animal movements and feeding habits, which can help improve environmental research and park management.

Read the whole story (Discovery.com)

For the past four years, I've relied on 802.11g Wi-Fi to get our router's Internet connection up to the second floor office where this web-server and our main PC both live. When we first moved into this house, I had come to the conclusion that there was no way I could route Ethernet cable from the first to the second floor (and across the width of the house) without doing something that She-Who-Must-Be-Obeyed would find objectionable.

So, after trying out three routers and countless Wi-Fi adapters looking for adequate range, reliability, and speed, I sunk into the belief that I was destined to put up with wildly fluctuating network speeds (often bouncing between 1 and 8 mbps realized throughput), intermittent connectivity loss (e.g., temporary wireless interference), and a generally unsatisfactory level of network performance.

Then, for no good reason, last week I revisited the idea of having an electrician run Cat-6 from where our router is to the upstairs office. I had always assumed it was prohibitively expensive, but figured getting an estimate couldn't hurt.

Wow! I was simply amazed when the job was done and I was no poorer than had I bought a new 802.11n router and PCI adapter for one computer. For a couple hundred dollars, we now have Gigabit Ethernet connecting our entire network. Granted, the Internet connection still trundles along at 3 mbps, but file transfers within the network (e.g., LAN backups and media copying) are blindingly fast.

So, if you're sick of mucking around with Wi-Fi for networking desktop PCs and other devices that don't move around a lot within your home, consider having an electrician give you an estimate on running some Ethernet cable. You may be surprised at how cheap it actually is (might be less expensive than buying some faster Wi-Fi gear and it's a LOT faster, reliable, and more secure). Make sure to get Cat-6 cable installed so you can be sure to take advantage of the new networking standards coming down the pike in a few years. You don't want to have to go about replacing wire inside your walls, and the better cable is only a few cents a foot more expensive (ours was 30 cents a foot).

Today, Palm announced its new Foleo smartphone companion (shown, next to the Treo). You can learn about it at the Palm website and read some first impressions here, here, and here.

I'm going to reserve judgment on the Foleo until I get some hands-on time with it (you hear that, Palm? Bump me up a few spots on the review unit list, will ya?). It has some interesting points, but I'll admit to being skeptical that the market for this device exceeds a few thousand people.

But it did get me thinking just what would have been a better product (or products) to announce today that would have served a similar purpose (i.e., extending the usefulness of a smartphone like the Treo...or the iPhone)? Here are some ideas that I've seen proposed various places today:

1) Linux-Powered Tablet Treo -- Combine the radio and multimedia functions of a Treo with all the open-source goodness of a Linux kernel and a big touchscreen display.

2) Bluetooth Virtual Display -- Giving the user a better bigscreen view of her Treo's data while only adding a few ounces to her bag seems like an interesting idea. Just one question, though: How do you interact with the Treo if your eyes are blocked by the display?

3) Clamshell Treo -- Proposed by the many who wish the Treo's 2.5" square display was a shade larger yet still pocketable, a clamshell Treo could even have two displays (a la Nintendo's DS) for double the productivity.

4) A Universal Treo-Laptop Interface -- Some have suggested that what Palm really needs to offer is a piece of hardware that would connect a Treo to any PC's USB port and automatically broker data and Internet sharing between the two devices. Imagine a continuous "smart" syncing between the two devices so that the PC could be used as an interface to the Treo's contents, or vice versa.

What's your suggestion? What should Palm have released instead of the Foleo? Or do you think it really is a viable new product category?

Like you, probably, I'm constantly facing "yet another technology decision" at home. This time, it's storage; my main external USB backup drive is running out of space and I need to figure out a solution. But, it just as easily could have been another episode of "there has to be a better media streamer" or the umpteenth round of "my, my, LCD monitors are getting cheap...maybe it makes sense to finally replace my CRT."

But this backup issue haunts me. It seems I am never able to get enough storage in the right place to last for very long. As if I were a gas, merrily following my Brownian ways, I tend to fill up whatever volume (pun intended) I'm given. And that line of thinking made me realize that my home technology infrastructure is the result of countless incremental changes, most being opportunistic or cost-driven and very few (if any) made with a larger, long-term strategy in mind.

So what would I do if I could scrap everything I have and start fresh? Would I go with a Drobo attached to an Apple Airport Extreme to create a massively upgradable NAS, or would I go with a Microsoft Windows Home Server? Would I change everything on my wireless network over to 802.11n? Would I even have a desktop anywhere in the house (other than a Mac Mini to use as a media center PC)?

All those are entertaining issues to mull over, but the reality is that few of us have the money or time to toss out everything and start fresh. I mean, financial implications aside, how freaking long would it take to get all that new kit functioning correctly? My head reels at the thought.

So, I'm back to my issue of a 500GB USB HDD being inadequate as my main backup unit. Should I just go get a 750GB and buy some time, or should I invest in a longer-term solution at a considerably higher price? Decisions, decisions...

This is a review of the new Ziova Clearstream CS510 High-Definition Network Media Player. Ziova (nee Zensonic), a small Australian consumer electronics firm, announced this puppy at CES 2007, but just recently (i.e., last week) started shipping units out for review. After I submitted a review request to the company a few months ago, one landed on my doorstep on Friday and I put it through its paces over the past few days. Here are some initial thoughts.

First, what it is. The CS510 is a home A/V appliance that streams/plays content located on your home network (via Ethernet or 802.11b/g) or attached storage (USB 2.0) to your home theater (TV and/or stereo system). The CS510 differentiates itself from the unwashed masses of network media streamers by virtue of a few unique (or uncommon) features:
• It serves up HD-quality video output (720p and 1080i) and 5.1 surround sound
• It has the ability to play content directly from an attached mass storage device (i.e., no PC is needed to decode the content)
• It offers up Windows network browsing via SMB

I will not enumerate the unit's specs here because that information is available from the Ziova website: overview, features, and reasonably complete technical specs

Below are some photos of the CS510 hardware and screen shots of its on-screen interface and output (if some of the screen shots look a little off-kilter or skewed, realize that I simply took handheld snapshots of the TV...the CS510's output was always completely orthogonal ;-):

As per tradition (OK, for at least the third time), here are my predictions for the upcoming year, 2007:

1) Apple's iPod continues PMP domination
Thought I'd start off with a safe one. Yep, I don't think too many would argue that the iPod is poised to remain the de facto standard in portable media players. Given that the #1 seller in Amazon's electronics category during the 2006 holiday season was the iPod by a significant margin, and given that accessories for all other PMPs combined amount to about 1/100th of what's available for the iPod, there's really no doubt that newcomers will have a hard time challenging the king, despite any technical advantages.

2) 802.11n gets ratified and gear floods to market
802.11n, the next generation of that family of wireless networking standards, has been forever in getting off the ground. 2007 should see its final certification, opening the gates to loads of networking hardware compliant to the new standard.

3) Film cameras all but disappear from electronics stores
While you'll still be able to find cheap disposables, it will become nearly impossible to find any mainstream electronics retailer selling more than one or two token models. $99 digital cameras from recognizable brands will become commonplace.

4) Nintendo tops Sony and Microsoft as gaming overlord
Not a big leap here, but Nintendo, through its Wii and DS lines, will lead all brands in game unit sales in 2007. Sony will retain the crown of technological leader (and work though its Blu-Ray production issues), and Microsoft will continue to play the spoiler in the industry.

5) TiVo is acquired
If this prediction was good enough to be wrong in 2006, then it's good enough for 2007 as well.

6) Google launches the GooglePhone
Google, in partnership with some handheld maker and/or carrier, will launch a branded QWERTY smartphone that natively runs its main offerings (e.g., Gmail, Google Docs, Google Maps, Google Talk, etc.). Maybe I'm predicting this purely out of desire -- I so want such a device -- but I do think it will happen eventually.

7) eBay sells Skype
You heard it here first. Or maybe you didn't. Either way, this is a long-shot prediction, but I think Meg Whitman is smart enough to realize that Skype is worth more to eBay when it's owned by somebody else.

8) Palm brings Jeff Hawkins back to reinvent Treo line
The current Treo line is getting a bit long in the tooth (not to mention the now-ancient Palm OS, which Palm just repurchased the permanent rights to) and its sales are likely getting pinched by slimmer, more aesthetically appealing (while not as functional, but a lot of people by phones based on looks...kind of like how they pick boy/girlfriends in college) offerings from Motorola and others. So, since Palm doesn't seem capable of designing anything anyone wants to buy on its own, the company will announce that Jeff Hawkins is coming back to help lead the development of the next-generation Treo. And many will ask, "What took you so long?"

9) HD-DVD and Blu-Ray persist; nobody cares
More devices will be available at cheaper prices, but sales of both players and media will continue to be tepid. Not only is renting becoming the dominant mode of DVD acquisition, but the current quality of standard dual-layer DVDs is perfectly adequate for 99% of the population. Maybe in a few years, the proliferating 1080p sets will drive people to want high-def movies, but it won't be as rapid an adoption rate as the original DVD was.

10) Robots become sentient, destroy all of humanity
On a related note, iRobot's stock price will double in 2007 as a result of strong sales and the announcement that a first-gen AI will take over as President and CEO.

Have a good year, everyone!

Since I made a series of predictions for 2006, I thought I'd go back and see how many actually came true.

1) Google Launches All-in-One Suite
I've been expecting this for some time, as have other folks, I'm sure, but I think 2006 will definitely see this announcement. Google will, I predict, launch a converged, multi-purpose, browser-based work environment -- lord knows what it'll be called, maybe GoogleDesk or something like that. Anyway, it will incorporate and integrate many of the disparate services that Google currently offers plus add a few. GoogleDesk will integrate Google search, Gmail (plus an enhanced contacts management function), Google Maps (auto-mapping of contacts, natch!), Blogger (for publication/hosting of created content), a new mini-suite of document tools based on the OpenOffice standard (so you can create word processor documents, spreadsheets, and presentation files), GoogleBase (the use of which will become more obvious with time), and Google News (of course). All these will be wrapped up in a browser-neutral (although I wouldn't be surprised for Google to cozy up to Mozilla to enhance Firefox with some special goodies), Java-based interface. Personally, I eagerly await this.

Kinda, sorta true. Google's offerings did indeed multiply in 2006, with Google Documents and a raft of other new and enhanced online services popping up. Technically, they haven't all been integrated into a single UI, but given they all work in a single browser session, that's pretty close.

2) The HD-DVD/Blu-Ray war ends...Blu-Ray wins
Yes, Sony will finally be able to claim a victory in the format wars. After so many failed attempts at ruling the world (cue Pinkie and the Brain theme) -- Betamax, minidisc, all the various flavors of Memory Stick, etc. -- Sony and friends will edge out the HD-DVD group and Blu-Ray will become the de facto format for HD content. That is, until something better comes along almost immediately, but hey, that's a prediction for next year.

The war ain't over, but I think most people who follow the industry would agree that Blu-Ray, despite Sony's floundering on the PS3, has more behind it than does HD-DVD at this point. It will likely take a few more years for the winner to become obvious -- until then, consumers will just be faced with more options they couldn't really care less about. After all, normal DVD looks pretty good on an HDTV and more people are choosing to take their video with them on the go; high-definition is the least of concerns for the joe wanting to watch Family Guy on his iPod.

3) The Linux-based replacement for Palm OS comes out
To limited acclaim in the West, it is immediately adopted by a significant number of Asian companies for its cheap, flexible architecture. The number of devices (almost entirely phones) running it by the end of 2006 will be around 10 in Asia and zero (maybe 1 or 2) in the West (US + Europe).

Wrong. Well, ALP (Access Linux for Palm) was released, but I've yet to hear of any actual adoption, so I'll just have to chalk this up to pure optimism.

4) Nokia will launch a Linux phone
Following the nascent success of its Linux-based 770 Internet Tablet, Nokia launches its first phone using a Linux-based OS. It mimics the S60 in look and feel. It does well, but not markedly so, causing much speculation and debate around the web about whether Nokia is abandoning S60 entirely.

Nope, didn't happen.

5) Democrats regain control of US Senate, make gains in HOR
The margin won't be enormous, but the Senate will once again be in the familiar (and, arguably, beneficial to the electorate) position of being led by the party not in control of the White House. More negotiation will result in 2007 and something a wee bit closer to "democracy" will return to the US shortly thereafter. Still a long way from acceptable, but closer.

Pretty much right on the money. In fact, you might say I underestimated their gains. Looking forward to a government much more balanced by checks and balances than it has been lately.

6) Windows Vista will launch, Apple users yawn
Windows Vista (launched in early Q4) will excite few, especially in the corporate ranks, due to the combination of a lack of "must-have" improvements and unattractive licensing structures offered by Microsoft. The 17 or so flavors of Vista will also leave consumers puzzled over which version is best for them and ultimately wait until they replace their hardware to upgrade. Given that processor speeds aren't increasing much and hard drives are getting easier to replace, there will be fewer changing out their PCs. Microsoft faces a tougher year than usual next year regarding financials; Windows Mobile and Xbox divisions still not profitable (but closer).

Sounds like a pretty accurate description of what actually happened.

7) Digital/HDTV makes big inroads
2006 will be the year of the migration to HDTV. Falling HDTV set prices (especially DLP and LCD), plus an exciting bounty of converging digital content, will usher in a period of rapid adoption that will continue into 2007. Content providers will actually start getting significant numbers of complaints when they broadcast non-HD content on their HD channels, leading to fewer programming lapses.

For the most part, yup. The sales of HDTVs were so large this holiday season that they actually affected the profitability of several large electronics retailers. So I guess it's clear that HDTV is taking off as expected. What remains to be seen is whether the broadcasters actually start paying attention now that HD viewership is climbing into significant numbers.

8) Satellite radio subscribership grows, but limited
Sirius and XM will continue to gain subscribers, but neither will top 10 million by the end of 2006. Someone will launch a mySatelliteRadio service that lets users listen to their personal music collections via satellite receiver (think MP3.com's old model applied to satradio). The RIAA will eat it for lunch, with a few hundred new downloading lawsuits for dessert.

XM had less than 8 million subscribers at the end of 2006 and Sirius had about 6 million, with the latter growing more quickly. Both are growing more slowly than the companies had predicted (and promised to investors), so that part of my prediction is absolutely spot on. I haven't heard of anything like the mySatelliteRadio service being launched, but given that many satellite receivers now enable playback of MP3 files, the two music sources are definitely getting closer.

9) TiVo is acquired
I don't know by whom, but I think this will happen within the next 12 months.

Ahem, no.

10) Resurgances of sci-fi/fantasy TV shows
The recent success of Battlestar Galactica and Lost, and the big money that the Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings franchises generate cause network television studios to start prepping more science fiction and fantasy content. A friend of mine thinks I'm daft to predict this -- we'll see. If not next year, then 2007. Or not.

Not exactly, at least not on the major networks. They are still heading towards the safe-and-familiar lines of reality/unscripted programming, dramas, and situation comedies. Alas, none of those are in space or in a castle somewhere. Too bad.

So, in the end, I had 5 predictions true or mostly correct, 4 that were mostly or completely wrong, and 1 that was unclear. Stay tuned for my predictions for 2007...

I've been cleaning out some old stuff of mine and my parents and have come across an interesting collection of stuff from my childhood. Two things I had saved for future reference included a 1975 World Series (baseball) program and a 1981 newspaper about the Space Shuttle. Looking through these, I discovered a veritable time capsule of consumer electronics -- advertisements from brands like Tandy, Zenith, Polaroid, and Magnavox are pretty amusing compared to today's offerings.

Take a look at some full-page ads for TVs, computers, cameras, and more after the jump...

A colleague turned me onto the excellent Logitech Cordless 2.4 GHz Presenter (pictured). As its name implies, it's a wireless controller for PowerPoint and other presentation software. It's good, so I thought I'd review it.

Why I like it can be summed up in three reasons:

1) It just works, no muss, no fuss. Pop the little USB dongle in a free USB port and the device is nearly instantly in control of your presentation app. No drivers are loaded (or, if they are, it happens very fast and very painlessly, at least on Windows XP machines).

2) It's designed very well. The aforementioned USB dongle is stored in the back of the handheld component, so you're less likely to lose it. The device only comes with a few buttons, so it's easy to hand to someone else without a lot of explaining. It does Forward, Backward, Blank Screen (excellent!), "F5" (which starts or escapes from full-screen mode), and the laser button (yes, it has a red laser pointer). It even comes with a snazzy little neoprene Velcro-close case that fits it just perfectly.

3) It has a countdown timer! I've been looking for this feature for forever. You can set the device to count down from any increment of 5 minutes (up to many hours, in case you're that long-winded), with time remaining displayed on the very readable LCD (which also, quite handily, displays the unit's remaining battery power). You can even have it vibrate at 5 minutes and 2 minutes remaining -- excellent for those of us who lose track of time and don't wear watches.

Anyway, this thing is awesome. I've tried it on several laptops and it's worked flawlessly every time. Since it's on 2.4GHz, you won't get interference from cellphones (although the odd cordless might share its frequency). It's sturdy and, at less than $60 at Amazon.com, it's quite reasonably priced. So, if you give presentations a lot and don't want to be tied to your notebook, give the Logitech Cordless 2.4 GHz Presenter a try...you'll love it.

Nearly every day, we hear statements to the effect of "the world is getting smaller." This, of course, is a metaphor for how access to places on the planet we'd previously only read about is getting easier, faster, and more trivial. But it's a lie.

For a while, the world did indeed seem to shrink. In the early part of the 20th century, radio brought us sounds from remote places. Then, with the rise of film reels in the 1930s and 1940s, and television in the 1950s and 1960s, we saw images of these far-flung locations, distant events, and foreign peoples. The 1970s and 1980s brought us cable television and greatly expanded real-time news coverage, which seemed to bring these distant things just that much closer, both in space and time.

Then, we got us the Internet and the World-Wide Web. In the mid- and late-1990s, we were all about connecting each other even more tightly. Email made it trivial to get text messages to each other. We could send photos, which closed the distance that separated us. CUSeeMe and other video/web-conferencing apps enabled us to see each other in real-time, too, making it seem like we were just in the next room. The world did indeed seem like it was growing smaller by the moment.

But then we got the big idea that we didn't need to be constrained by the physical universe. People began inventing alternative, purely digital existences. They started out as MUDs (multi-user domains, or dungeons) and then grew both in sophistication and scope. And they also started generating a whole lotta content that existed only on the web. We moved beyond merely putting images of paintings in the Louvre on the museum's website -- we had started creating art that had no physical counterpart.

Sure, the Internet/Web was referred to as "cyberspace", suggesting that it had some otherworldly dimensions. But for the most part, we used it merely as a reflection of this tangible world we exist in every day.

These online worlds -- the Sims, the WoWs, the Second Lifes -- combined with the social networking spaces -- MySpace and Facebook, as two examples -- are effectively now making the world a bigger place. All this new content -- the what, the where, and the when -- is creating more "space" that we can, and often feel compelled to, explore.

While our ability to communicate with each other improves in both synchronicity and richness, the amount of space -- both physical and virtual -- is increasing at a faster rate than our communication can keep up with. The upshot is that we are getting more and more overwhelmed by the possibilities of how -- and where -- to spend our time. And this will only continue as new virtual spaces multiply, grow, and become increasing sophisticated.

What are the social implications of this? I've some ideas, but we'll definitely all be surprised as the specifics play out. Should be interesting, to say the least.

According to The Register, some University of Southern California researchers have invented a new way to long-lasting white light out of organic light-emitting devices (OLEDs).

Given that they have lower power requirements than even the most miserly compact fluorescents and last upwards of five years, the obvious application is as a better light "bulb" (although "panel" would probably be a better term).

However, given that OLEDs are "transparent when switched off," you could conceivably replace window glass with OLED panels that would pass natural light through from outside during the day and generate their own light at night. Of course, the transparency of the OLED panel isn't near that of glass, so it might make more sense to intersperse OLED areas with glass areas, but you get the point.

Now THAT sounds pretty appealing!

I was thumbing through the SkyMall on a flight this past weekend and came across a device that looks kinda nifty: the Sharper Image "What Really Happened While You Were Away!" Secret Security Camcorder (pictured).

Basically, this digital clock contains a a motion-sensor and camera that captures QVGA (320x240) video whenever it detects activity. It can store video (in handy DivX files) either on its internal 64MB of memory or on removable SD/MMC cards (which can hold up to 3 hours of video files). Watch videos via USB or by using a card reader on your PC. The Sharper Image website has a video showing some actual recorded footage, which looks pretty decent.

I've no experience using this thing -- at $200, it exceeded my price limit for non-essential impulse purchases -- but am wondering if anyone out there has used it and liked/disliked it.

Gazing into my crystal (liquid crystal, of course) ball, the haze clears and 2006 looms large. Here is what the future holds for us in the coming year:

1) Google Launches All-in-One Suite
I've been expecting this for some time, as have other folks, I'm sure, but I think 2006 will definitely see this announcement. Google will, I predict, launch a converged, multi-purpose, browser-based work environment -- lord knows what it'll be called, maybe GoogleDesk or something like that. Anyway, it will incorporate and integrate many of the disparate services that Google currently offers plus add a few. GoogleDesk will integrate Google search, Gmail (plus an enhanced contacts management function), Google Maps (auto-mapping of contacts, natch!), Blogger (for publication/hosting of created content), a new mini-suite of document tools based on the OpenOffice standard (so you can create word processor documents, spreadsheets, and presentation files), GoogleBase (the use of which will become more obvious with time), and Google News (of course). All these will be wrapped up in a browser-neutral (although I wouldn't be surprised for Google to cozy up to Mozilla to enhance Firefox with some special goodies), Java-based interface. Personally, I eagerly await this.

2) The HD-DVD/Blu-Ray war ends...Blu-Ray wins
Yes, Sony will finally be able to claim a victory in the format wars. After so many failed attempts at ruling the world (cue Pinkie and the Brain theme) -- Betamax, minidisc, all the various flavors of Memory Stick, etc. -- Sony and friends will edge out the HD-DVD group and Blu-Ray will become the de facto format for HD content. That is, until something better comes along almost immediately, but hey, that's a prediction for next year.

3) The Linux-based replacement for Palm OS comes out
To limited acclaim in the West, it is immediately adopted by a significant number of Asian companies for its cheap, flexible architecture. The number of devices (almost entirely phones) running it by the end of 2006 will be around 10 in Asia and zero (maybe 1 or 2) in the West (US + Europe).

4) Nokia will launch a Linux phone
Following the nascent success of its Linux-based 770 Internet Tablet, Nokia launches its first phone using a Linux-based OS. It mimics the S60 in look and feel. It does well, but not markedly so, causing much speculation and debate around the web about whether Nokia is abandoning S60 entirely.

5) Democrats regain control of US Senate, make gains in HOR
The margin won't be enormous, but the Senate will once again be in the familiar (and, arguably, beneficial to the electorate) position of being led by the party not in control of the White House. More negotiation will result in 2007 and something a wee bit closer to "democracy" will return to the US shortly thereafter. Still a long way from acceptable, but closer.

6) Windows Vista will launch, Apple users yawn
Windows Vista (launched in early Q4) will excite few, especially in the corporate ranks, due to the combination of a lack of "must-have" improvements and unattractive licensing structures offered by Microsoft. The 17 or so flavors of Vista will also leave consumers puzzled over which version is best for them and ultimately wait until they replace their hardware to upgrade. Given that processor speeds aren't increasing much and hard drives are getting easier to replace, there will be fewer changing out their PCs. Microsoft faces a tougher year than usual next year regarding financials; Windows Mobile and Xbox divisions still not profitable (but closer).

7) Digital/HDTV makes big inroads
2006 will be the year of the migration to HDTV. Falling HDTV set prices (especially DLP and LCD), plus an exciting bounty of converging digital content, will usher in a period of rapid adoption that will continue into 2007. Content providers will actually start getting significant numbers of complaints when they broadcast non-HD content on their HD channels, leading to fewer programming lapses.

8) Satellite radio subscribership grows, but limited
Sirius and XM will continue to gain subscribers, but neither will top 10 million by the end of 2006. Someone will launch a mySatelliteRadio service that lets users listen to their personal music collections via satellite receiver (think MP3.com's old model applied to satradio). The RIAA will eat it for lunch, with a few hundred new downloading lawsuits for dessert.

9) TiVo is acquired
I don't know by whom, but I think this will happen within the next 12 months.

10) Resurgances of sci-fi/fantasy TV shows
The recent success of Battlestar Galactica and Lost, and the big money that the Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings franchises generate cause network television studios to start prepping more science fiction and fantasy content. A friend of mine thinks I'm daft to predict this -- we'll see. If not next year, then 2007. Or not.

OK, those are my predictions. I may add some more...come this time in 2006, I'll look back on these and, well, probably LMAO at how poorly I forecast the future. Until then, have a good one!

Two years ago, on December 31, 2003, I made a series of predictions for what would happen in 2004. Well, OK, so I'm a year late reviewing how I did...sue me.

Anyway, I had some hits and some misses:

Prediction: PalmSource will release Palm OS 6 to much fanfare. It will be a marked improvment for the operating system, and devices running on OS6 will be available before July. They will rock.

LOL! Man, can I blow a prediction or what? In case you've been under a rock, Palm OS 6 never made it into any consumer devices (the closest I saw was some prototype phones from Asia) and PalmSource has switched to a Linux-kernel future for Palm OS and has since been acquired by Access, an Asian phone software firm.

Prediction: Samsung will continue to encroach on Sony's market share in nearly every consumer electronics product area except for gaming.

I think this was a pretty much dead on. As a direct competitor for Sony in nearly every product segment, Samsung's sales are way, way up -- 44% higher in 2004 than in 2003 -- with a lot of that momentum coming at Sony's expense (revenue down 7.2% compared to 2004). Sony's forthcoming PS3 will definitely grab some market share and Samsung so far has no competitor for it (and I can't imagine it doing so any time soon).

Prediction: LCD televisions will continue to expand as prices drop, brands multiply, and sizes increase. Plasma TV sales in 2004 will plateau, leading to a year-on-year decline (the first ever) in 2005.

Pretty close, but my prediction was a bit early. While plasma sales have continued to rise, they're increasing much more slowly than before. LCD TV sales, however, are skyrocketing and are set to pass plasma sales in 2006.

Prediction: Wi-Fi mania will continue to build and someone will announce a low-power, low-range Wi-Fi variant that effectively obviates the need for Bluetooth. The "death of Bluetooth" will be once again announced by the press...and this time they may be right.

Not quite. Bluetooth is that technology that really hasn't achieved its full potential. Even now in late 2005, it's hard to configure and finicky with most hardware combinations. Rumors of wireless USB and some other interesting technologies are still poised to replace Bluetooth, but it may take a few more years. In the meantime, we'll continue to mutter "you couldda been a contender!"

Prediction: Bad news will continue to pour forth from the US Congress and White House in terms of poorly conceived, technology-ignorant legislation and cow-towing to powerful media lobbyists (e.g., RIAA and MPAA). Environmental devastation and deregulation will increase at the hands of the Bush administration.

Well, this wasn't really a fair prediction since it was almost assured to happen. From the FCC's crackdown on "smut" on TV to MPAA/RIAA-friendly bills requiring digital flag handling in hardware to total refusal to participate in the Kyoto protocol to reduce greenhous emissions (justified, as usual, with selectively edited "scientific" studies), the US government has had a banner couple of years regarding technology abuse.

Prediction: Convergence in home entertainment (audio/video) electronics will be hampered by an industry that is unable and/or unwilling to agree on and follow technical standards.

Again, not hard to predict. The fact that we are STILL wrangling over Blu-Ray versus HD-DVD is just sad. Moreover, there has been little progress towards unification on either of the HDTV specs (720p vs. 1080i), but people are starting to gravitate towards accommodating both and getting 1080p sets.

Prediction: Despite technical and legislative solutions, spam will continue to increase as a percentage of total email, but more slowly (due to the convergence towards 100%).

Pretty much hit this one. Back in mid-2003, spam represented about half of all email. By late 2004, it had stabilized at around 67%, and hasn't climbed much more since then. Spammers have been using more sophisticated methods, such as phishing, to get higher returns out of the the spam they do send out. So, while the volume hasn't gone up dramatically, the danger level continues to rise faster than filtering technologies can adapt.

Prediction: There will be peace on Earth (hey, I can dream, can't I?)

Worst...prediction...evar.

Stay tuned for some end-of-the-year predictions for 2006 and beyond, to be posted next week.

A friend of mine has patented a method to validate a variety of technology-mediated communications by way of tokens, or small codes appended onto email addresses, phone numbers, etc. These tokens help screen out spam from legitimate messages, help message/call recipients establish different treatments for different senders (or classes of senders) and contexts, and a variety of other uses we're still developing.

The interesting bit is how this token approach is better than every other method currently in use, including whitelists, blacklists, and "intelligent" filtering (e.g., Bayesian methods). All these start falling down in the face of unique problems, and spammers tend to outwit automated methods fairly quickly.

We're working on getting the technology into the market, so more as things develop. Should be interesting...

According to Techdirt, privacy concerns aren't the only reasons to distrust RFID (radio frequency identification) technology:

...but there's another reason to shun RFID, according to a couple of authors: it could evolve into the "mark of the beast" referred to in the book of Revelation. There's some wiggle room, though. The Bible specifies the mark will appear on people's right hands or foreheads, and an RFID vendor says both of those spots are impractical for human implants. Then there's also that part about how the mark is 666, and the authors are "not sure how the 666 part fits in."

Well, here's how the '666 part' fits in:

If you convert "RFID" to binary, you get the following:

01010010 01000110 01001001 01000100

Notice how each of the first three bytes sums up to "3" and the last byte sums up to "2".

Well, "333" x 2 = "666".

So there you have it -- conclusive evidence that RFID is Satan's handiwork. ;-)

Update: Apparently, some readers think this post is meant to be taken seriously. Sorry...it's not. :-p

Like many consumer electronics and technology addicts, I have drawers full of aging gadgets that, while they still work, no longer meet any of my needs. Here's a sample of such things from the closest drawer to where I'm sitting at the moment:

- Powered 4-port USB 1.1 hub with A/C adapter
- US Robotics PalmPilot Personal with cradle
- Leather case for a PEG-N series Sony Clie PDA
- Sony Walkman Sport portable FM/cassette player
- Aiwa HS-T50 portable FM/cassette player
- PalmPilot modem
- Palm m100 PDA
- Realistic (Radio Shack) microcassette recorder
- USB1.1 Smartmedia flash card reader

What the heck do I do with this stuff? No one thing will fetch more than $10 on ebay, if that much, making it not worth the time to sell them individually. Nobody is going to want the whole batch of stuff, either. Donating it to Goodwill or the like without manuals isn't a very appealing option either, since they'd probably end up throwing the stuff away for lack of knowing what it's for. And I just can't bring myself to throw perfectly functional tech into the garbage...I just can't do it.

Any suggestions?

To continue our fledgling "Gadget Bag" series, GearBits' own former contributor, Mitch Hamm, updates us on his gear du jour:

I have been through several digital eras in the past ten years. I think things kicked off seriously for me when Microsoft debuted Win95 and I was at the launch party ready to ditch Windows 3.1 and get on with my life. Reality set in soon after and I bailed from Windows for a four year defection to Linux. During this time I was heavily involved with the late, great HP 200LX palmtop. Once it became technically obsolete, I wandered in and out of the Palm world looking for a new love, but none ever came. I am still without a PDA that I rely on and trust like I did my old 200LX.

My latest digital era began long ago, but I never could wrap my head around the concept. I even came to Craig several times with my devious plan, but he just could not "grok" and I'm sure he still can't. I finally put my plan into motion in March after my employer let me know that I had been a very good boy last year...

My bag is a 15" Powersleeve made by Booq. It's just big enough to carry what I need, but not large enough to tempt me into carrying a bunch of extra junk. I also like the "portrait mode" suspension it has versus the conventional landscape mode.

In it I carry a 15" G4 Apple Powerbook. It is a 1.67 GHz model with 128 MB of VRAM, 1GB of main RAM, 100GB hard drive, an 8X Superdrive, Bluetooth 2.0, and built-in 802.11g wireless. I always wondered if the Powerbook hype was true and after two months with it I can say that yes, it's all that and a bag of chips.

Along with me in the Booq is a Radtech BT500 bluetooth mouse, an Apple iSight for stunning video conferencing, a 1GB iPod Shuffle for portable tunage, a Motorola HS810 bluetooth headset (works with the Powerbook and the phone), a Canon Powershot SD300 for pictures and movies, and a Motorola V710 phone keeps me in touch.

In the back pocket of the Booq I always have the latest issue of
Make magazine which is my new favorite publication. Most everything else I read on Zinio in digital format.

So it seems my digital life has come nearly full circle in the past
ten years of so. On Friday, April 29th, Apple launches "Tiger" and I'll be there. My how things have changed since Win95 came out...

We'll continue the series next week, so stay tuned.

In obvious imitation (and the corresponding flattery) of Gizmodo's "Gadget Bag" series, I thought I'd ask a few of my more tech-savvy friends what gear they carry around on a regular basis. First up to the plate is Bob Nonnenkamp, IT professional and really swell guy:

My gear "bags" are a laptop-carrying backpack and a belt holster.

I have grown to dislike most work travel. But not liking something, unfortunately, doesn't make it disappear. (Wouldn't that be nice?) So anything that makes me more productive on the road is goodness. Yeah, I might waste a bit of time at home getting all my toys to work, but that's fun.

I have a couple laptops for work, but I mainly use my ThinkPad T41. It's light and sports 2GB of memory, though my ideal laptop would have at least 3GB. The media-bay battery gives me a total of 8 hours of road warrior time for those coast to coast jaunts. Occasionally I add my external Plexor DVD writer to the laptop bag when I'm teaching a class.

For laptop connectivity, I used to connect my Sanyo4900 Sprint phone (unlimited data plan) cell phone to the laptop to stay on top of Instant Messaging and access mail. Being able to stay connected at 150 kilobits even though you're in a customer's secure computer room is a great way to get the job done fast, though I always get people bumming my notebook for network access. Now that I have a Treo650, I'm still waiting for Palm/Sprint to support the Bluetooth network access for my laptop. (Principles keep me from the buying PdaNet software to do this.)

This leads us to the belt holster, which holds the Treo650. I have a hybrid stereo microhone to listen to music while walking the dogs in the morning. The hybrid mic is also fun to make co-workers wonder whether I'm on the phone or listening to music. (That's a joke. They know I'm always on the phone.) For Treo650 audio in the minivan, I settled on a Belkin Tunecast. (The Tunecast II would auto-off when connected to my Treo650.) Hey, if you have to drive a minivan, you might as well figure out ways to enjoy it...like bringing a bunch of A/C appliances and large power inverter.

While I could listen to music collection my SD card, I'm not blessed with the phenomenal CD collection that Craig has. So, I typically use Pocket Tunes software to listen to Shoutcast internet radio streams, like WOXY (Bam! the future of rock 'n roll.) Now that's a good use of an unlimited data plan!

While I'm not big on using the Treo to web surf, I do occassionally use it for traffic video. (In DC, traffic is more important than politics.) I also use the Treo for for email, instant messaging, video, and remote computer access. VeriChat software keeps me in touch with my spouse and friends over IM. Pocket DVD Studio and MMPlayer for catching up on Sopranos episodes or old movies while waiting at the doctor's office. Lastly, the WebSphere palm vpn client (WECM) lets me tap onto my office LAN for telnet, VNC, and work IM.

Thanks, Bob!

Every day, it seems, I read about how lawmakers and trade groups (sometimes they seem to be one and the same) like the MPAA and the RIAA are concerned with how to regulate the Internet or some new-fangled piece of technology so that people can't violate copyright laws or do something else bad.

• Some people are using peer-to-peer (P2P) file-sharing systems to illegally trade music and movies, so they want to outlaw those systems.
• Some people are using the Internet to upload porn that children might see, so they want to regulate it.
• Some people are switching to VOIP to make phone calls instead of paying their interstate communications taxes like good little sheep citizens, so they want to tax Internet-based communications.
• Some people are selling things on ebay and then not completing the deal, so they want to make everyone get a vendor license.

ENOUGH! You can't keep everyone in line all the time, and locking down the system so as to reduce the chances of abuse to zero only results in a system that nobody can use for anything, good or bad.

• Some people are using highways to smuggle stolen merchandise, so why don't we outlaw highways?
• Some people are making telephone calls to arrange criminal activity, so why don't we eliminate the phone system?
• Some people are using lighters, spoons, and syringes to partake in illegal drugs, so why don't we regulate lighters, spoons, and syringes?
• Some people have used knives and baseball bats to murder other people, so why don't we put limits on who can buy those items?

The reason is that all these items have significant valid and legal uses and their presence benefits society. Instead of regulating spoons and baseball bats, we regulate what can not be done with them (taking drugs and assaulting people).

And this is how it should be. The laws have generally tended to regulate activity, not the things related to the activity. While we regulate cars in terms of safety, we don't put onerous speed limiters on them...why not? Because it's already illegal to speed -- the law addresses the behavior, not the technology.

There are laws that focus on the technology rather than the use, such as the design of vehicles and medicine bottle caps. But that is done primarily for safety reasons, not to prevent criminal behavior. One exception to this is gun control, which is done to reduce the possibility of guns being used to commit crimes. The argument for this regulation is that guns, especially assault rifles, have few valid and legal uses.

Even though I've long been an advocate of gun control, I just realized that one of the arguments against gun control is very similar to the argument I'm making against technology control. That is, laws should address the behavior (e.g., armed robbery or assault with a deadly weapon), not the technology itself. From that perspective, I can appreciate the NRA's position, even if I do still believe their objectives are unfounded (IMO, no private citizen has a valid reason for keeping a gun on his person at all times). But I digress.

So, we already have laws limiting trade, communications, and various criminal acts. If something that's illegal in the real world happens on the Internet, it should be illegal in that case as well. But, we do NOT need new laws specifically for the Internet and related technologies. If an entirely new and unregulated behavior emerges that society wants to constrain, then a law may be appropriate, but regulating information technology itself is just bad policy.

I know now that I shouldn't have sold my camera.

When you're addicted to gadgets, upgrading is almost always just a question of which new device to get. Rarely is it that what you already have, despite it being ancient (at least in technology years), is the best thing going. That's what I'm now finding out about my former digital camera.

I used to use...no, that's not right...obsess over my Olympus C-2100 UZ (shown). This camera had such a cult following at one point that it was called the "Uzi" by its fans.

I was so enamored with that camera that I bought a spare, just in case something should happen to my first one. I had all sorts of extra lenses and filters and doo-dads specially for the camera. And it treated me well...rarely was I at a loss as to how to capture a decent picture. Here are some of my better examples:

But when my wife and I were expecting the birth of our daughter last summer, I felt I needed a camera that could also take decent movies. The Uzi took admittedly crappy movies -- 320x240 at 15fps with lots of distracting focusing/zoom motor noises. Given that I didn't want to be bothered with a separate camcorder, and given that I thought recording straight to MPEG-4 would save a lot of time over importing DV tape (which it has!), I thought I'd sell the Uzis and get myself a nice new camera with similar features and better movie capabilities. I thought I had found just such a camera when the Canon SI 1S was introduced last Spring.

So, I agreed to sell my Olympus setup to a guy in Canada for about $40 more than the Canon and a high-speed 2GB CF card cost. "How cool," I thought, "I'm going to come out ahead on this deal." Well, the results are mixed. While the movie capabilities of the S1 IS are indeed what I was hoping for (VGA 30fps movies of the baby are excellent), the camera aspects of the Canon are a step down from the Olympus.

And here is where the specs failed me. The Canon is 2004 technology, whereas the Olympus came out in 2000. The Canon is 3.2 megapixels while the Uzi was just 2.1. The Canon has a faster focusing mechanism than the Uzi, yet because it doesn't have a focus assist lamp, it often misfocuses in low-light situations. The Canon is smaller and lighter than the Uzi, but once I put on the threaded lens adapter (so I can use filters), it's about the same size. But really none of that matters as much as one simple fact: the Olympus consistently took better pictures than the Canon does.

It's not that the Canon takes bad pictures. They're just so-so. Even after the minor Photoshopping that I always had to do with the Uzi's photos (up the saturation, sharpen a tad maybe), photos from the Canon always seem a bit flat. Maybe it's a little more noise. Maybe it's a little softer images. I don't know. All I do know is that my wife and I look at the photos that come out of the Canon and we're rarely impressed. Contrast that with looking at photos from the Uzi, when we'd regularly go "wow" or "ooh." I am certainly not a gifted photographer, but the Uzi seemed to bring out the best in my efforts.

So, yeah, I miss the Olympus. I made a mistake and am man enough to admit it. Several of my friends (who were convinced they should buy one after trying mine) still have their Uzis, and I'm a bit envious whenever they get theirs out to snap some pics. Maybe I can convince one of them to let me have theirs when they upgrade. Of course, if they read this blog post, they may just never do that.

I guess the lessons learned are think twice, always do a trial before making a permanent switch, and don't expect a device to be excellent at everything. I relied on the specs and regret it a little. The movies are totally terrific with the Canon, but I hope I can find something someday that will once again deliver the knock-out images the Uzi produced for me. Any suggestions?

Hal, a buddy of mine, and I were just chatting last night and we came up with the bud of an idea -- the Home Positioning System, or HPS. Yeah, it's a take-off on GPS (Global Positioning System), but for comparatively tiny areas like homes and offices.

Why do we need this? Well, we're going to see an increasing number of autonomous robots wandering around buildings and homes, and unless they develop some pretty awesome (and cheap) optical systems to help the poor things figure out where they are, some sort of highly accurate wireless navigation system will have to be developed.

One application that got us to thinking about this is Hal's new Roomba Discovery. You know, those cute little tortilla-warmer-sized robotic vacuums. We expect that in a few years, it won't be at all surprising for you to be able to program the Roomba to vacuum certain rooms on certain days, etc. Of course, that requires that the Roomba know which areas are called the Family Room, Living Room, etc. and it has to know where it is all the time so it can get there and back per the schedule.

One idea for the HPS we came up with is a wireless beacon system. Using some unregulated frequency, like 900 MHz, these beacons would send out a unique blip every few seconds. The beacons could be spread around the house, plugged directly into outlets or (and this is potentially very nifty) installed into the base of light sockets, between the outlet contact and the bulb base. Once the robot was trained -- what the floorplan looks like and where the beacons are relative to where walls, steps, etc. are -- it would be trivial for it to navigate wherever it needs to go.

Another idea would be to use RFID. By putting a receiving antenna on the robot and locating differently encoded RFID tags at each doorway or division (real or arbitrary) in the house or office, the robot would know when it's approaching a new zone. This doesn't work as well as a wireless HPS, but it does afford some of the same benefits and would likely be a lot cheaper.

The reason GPS can't be used for this is the issue of accuracy -- GPS is accurate to within yards, whereas an HPS would need to be accurate to within an inch or two. Also, GPS doesn't work as well indoors, as the satellite signals are harder to lock onto.

I'm sure we're not the first two guys to think about this, so what tech is out there to address this? Anything yet?

Follow-up: Apparently, somebody already thought of this back in 1999 and offered the idea of using X10 transmitters. Not a bad idea, but I think we can do better than that with today's, if not tomorrow's, technology.

Yeah, you've seen this somewhere else already -- I'm mostly adding it here because I want to be able to reference it easily in the future.

The Top 100 Gadgets of All Time

I'm saddened to say that I've only owned 4 of their top 20 gadgets. Is it too late to grab an Atari 2600?

CNET News.com has a nice pictorial on various robots, both concepts and actual field-ready units, designed for military functions (e.g., the SWORDS bot pictured below).

Nothing good can come from giving guns to robots. Did we learn nothing from Short Circuit, people, hmm?

OMFG!!1!! W00T!11!

OK, enough 1337 speak, but I'm darned excited -- I just placed my order for an unlocked GSM Treo 650 from palmOne.

I've been excited about the 650 since it was rumored to be on the way, and a recent up-close-and-personal session with my buddy Bob's CDMA version convinced me it's a terrific upgrade.

Due to the backlog, it won't be here for a couple of weeks. Oh, the agony! Anticipa-a-tion...

On a whim, I bought a cheap digital photo frame from Woot!, intending to load it up with photos and give it to an inlaw as a geeky gift. Once it arrived and I showed it to my wife, she suggested that unless I wanted to get tech support calls on a weekly basis, I just keep it and put it in my office at work. She's wise, my wife.

So, I dumped about 100 photos onto a spare CompactFlash card I had (THAT'S why I keep pieces of kit around for years in drawers) and put it in my office. I set it up to cycle through the images, displaying each for 30 seconds. Since the screen is only about 3" on the diagonal, I expected it to be an idle curiosity of which I'd soon tire and forget. I was wrong.

It's been in my office for a while, now, and I catch myself, every so often, glancing over to see an image that makes me smile. It's not a long, doting study -- just a quick dart of the eyes -- but it's enough to evoke a fond memory or a brief chuckle at some funny moment long since past.

Would I have spent the $100+ that most of these things run for? Probably not, but for what I paid, it's been a pleasant surprise. It also makes me realize that it'd be cool to get a discarded 14" or 15" low-res LCD monitor that somebody no longer wants, craft up a little box that would just feed images to the monitor, and hang it on a wall as a decent-sized digital photo frame. Or, better yet, the little box would just tap into my PC using Bluetooth and grab the images off my HDD -- no sense duplicating the data if you don't hafta. It'll happen...probably sooner than I expect, too.

The recently announced Konica Minolta DiMAGE Z5 looks like a potentially awesome camera.

With CCD-based anti-shake, a 12X optical zoom lens, high-quality VGA movie capabilities, and a host of other yummy features, this could be my next camera. While I certainly don't need 5 megapixels, the other specs seem just about perfect. If it included a remote control and had a swivel LCD on it, I would have nothing left to nitpick about. Well, except for the fact that the Z5 is definitely a weird-looking camera.

Once reviews start coming out, I'll definitely be paying attention. While my current camera, a Canon S1 IS, is nice, it has a couple of shortcomings (e.g., slow/inaccurate focus, bad red-eye, need to have the lens hood on to use screw-on filters) that are getting old fast.

I keep a small journal of ideas for novels that I'll never write. One idea I entered into that journal almost a year ago was about a college computer science student. For a computer science class project, he writes a Trojan that enters a victim's computer and, if there's a webcam connected, makes images from the webcam available to the Trojan's controller. He was then going to use that Trojan to uncover some sort of plot...the details weren't all that solidified yet.

Anyway, given those thoughts of mine, I was floored last week to read about this Spanish computer programmer who basically did just what I described. Apparently, he wrote it in 2003, even before my journal entry, but wasn't caught until this month. Apparently, he could control the webcam on an infected computer and activate it -- sending the video stream directly to himself -- at any time.

So, if you have a webcam, point it at the ceiling when you're not using it...just to be safe. ;-)

Back in December, I posted an Excel spreadsheet that helped people determine the largest print they can make from a given digital photograph.

I was hoping to create a CGI version of the worksheet so that people could just do it online and not have to bother with Excel. My buddy Bob crafted up a quick-and-dirty Perl script to do just that. After some tweaks, I'm happy to make version .7 beta available here:

Digital Photo Printing Worksheet -- CGI Edition

Since the script is still in beta, it's not quite finished -- I'd like to make it friendlier to the 85% of the world who doesn't use English units as well as make it a bit more visually friendly (I'm considering adding some My Little Pony graphics).

If you compare the recommendations made by the Excel spreadsheet with those made by the script, you might find some differences. I improved the calculations in the script version and haven't yet updated the Excel spreadsheet, so consider the web version to offer better advice.

If you're curious about how I calculate the recommendations based on image size, pixels per inch, and viewing distance, check out this excellent tutorial on the science of optical resolution. If you're still curious, I'll send you the script.

I predict that satellite radio, like XM and Sirius, won't be around in 10 years. It will be replaced by a mesh of other wireless technologies, such as cellular and WiMax. Internet access via municipal and private terrestrial wireless will replace satellite radio because the functions of satellite radio are so easily replaced by Internet access. Give me 120kbps data speed to my cellphone and I've already obsoleted satellite radio. Not only would you get access to thousands of Internet radio stations, you'd also get access to your own private music collection (e.g., set up Shoutcast on your home machine and just stream your music on demand). Both of those are much more valuable to consumers than 100 or so moderately tailored, but still rather generic, radio stations only tunable by proprietary receivers.

XM and Sirius might morph into something more than what they currently are (if not at least the two companies merging), but if they don't, their days are numbered. Soon, they'll be relegated to the trash heap of business history like full-service gas stations, the Pony Express, and dial-up Internet.

And he says its better than a Treo...whatever.

I have a brand new U2 Edition (the gnarly black and red unit with the band's signatures engraved on the back) Apple iPod that I'm selling on ebay. It's so new that it's still shrink-wrapped, for Pete's sake. Check it out.

Update: Sold.

I was sitting in our family room staring at our collection of aging VHS tapes, which consists of commercial copies of major movies as well as the inescapable home movies and other personal memories-on-tape. As I sat there, I realized that a VCR will likely not be in our house a decade from now, yet we will still want to be able to watch many, if not most, of these movies and other videos. So, I started evaluating our options.

First, I could go out and buy AGAIN all this stuff on DVD. While we most likely WILL go out and buy AGAIN many of the commercial movies that we (read "Lori") watch frequently, the problem that remains is that many of these videos aren't available on DVD (e.g., much of our Disney collection), aren't available in any format anymore (e.g., my collection of Ren & Stimpy cartoons), or were never available for purchase (e.g., our wedding video). So, even if I suck it up and re-buy many of these movies on DVD, I still had a problem with a large percentage of our collection.

I could also pay to have a professional service convert our stuff to DVD. However, most services won't touch copyrighted stuff even when you are creating that one "archival" copy that US copyright law fully permits under the doctrine of fair use. Plus, professional services are expensive and they're really only doing something I could probably do myself.

So, I started looking into options for capturing the output of our VHS VCR to DVD. While many USB capture devices will let you convert non-copyrighted stuff (e.g., home movies), most balk at anything with Macrovision copy protection (that's what causes those wavy lines and overall yuckiness you see when trying to copy from one VCR to another).

However, I did find a device, the ADS Tech DVD Xpress, that pretty much ignores Macrovision -- it basically just sends whatever the TV would display directly to your hard drive (via USB2.0) in MPEG-1 or MPEG-2 format. Alternately, you can go direct-to-disc and skip storing the image files on your hard drive, but that option didn't work at all the one time I tried it.

So far, the results have been pretty good. After a short learning curve, I've been able to capture the entire Star Wars trilogy (the first three movies as originally shown in the theaters) at 4mbps. It's not great quality, and on a wide-screen HDTV, the MPEG artifacting is noticeable a lot of the time. I was even able to add some nifty chapter menus, complete with short video clips for each chapter (makes for a very entertaining menu!).

While the quality is about as good as a mediocre tape played on a mediocre VCR, it definitely beats waiting for the magnetic media to whither and die or our VCR to go belly up and not get replaced. I think it will be quite adequate to archive the unreplaceable stuff while we start replacing most of the commercial movies with DVD versions. After all, when you consider the added value of better image quality plus all the out-takes, deleted scenes, and director commentary that DVDs usually offer, $15 doesn't sound like such a bad deal. Sure beats ripping a videocassette to 4mbps MPEG-2!

I wandered across this manufacturer of hot-looking home theater PC (HTPC) cases: A-Tech Fabrication.

One of the features I admire (i.e., lust after) the most is the in-case touchscreen LCD. Dunno how much it adds to the price tag, but that'd be great to have, IMO.

Yep, that's right. PalmOne has told us that "they're working on Wi-Fi drivers for the Treo 650" yet one guy with some spare time managed to do it first. What's up with that, PalmOne? Hmm?

Get the files and installation instructions and then quietly thank Shadowmite for doing this for us.

This demonstration movie (streaming Quicktime) displays some impressive behavior on the part of Honda's child-sized humanoid bot.

It's not 'I, Robot' yet, and, well, perhaps we should be thankful for that.

I just picked up a Philips Pronto NG TSU3000 universal remote control to help us get a handle on the growing population of remotes that occupy our family room coffee table (6 at last count).

After spending a few hours getting it programmed, it works really well. The range is excellent and the interface is whatever I want it to be (which is nice). If you're considering venturing into the programmable/universal remote waters, definitely check out the king-daddy resource for do-it-yourselfers: RemoteCentral.com.

Last night, I learned that one friend just got a Treo 650 and another friend won an ebay auction of 6 full-sized arcade games for a ridiculously low price. I don't know which to be more envious of! :-)

Yeah, I know, this is a fairly lame post to break such a long silence, but I'll post more soon...I promise. And if anyone actually reads this, post a comment -- I swear, it won't hurt.

 

 

 

Asymptomatic.net has a really nice table comparing several (many, actually) blog software packages. In case you're thinking of blogging and don't want to use a hosted service, check it out -- it will save you hours of time spent comparing the different alternatives yourself.

or "Making good use of the bellwether nerd"

A lot of companies, especially technology-based companies, start out with a product (a gadget, a service, whatever) that is technically innovative. It does something new or vastly improves upon the way others have done it before. They get some success under their belt and grow. Then, middle age hits -- the company starts playing it safe, rationalizing more and more incremental improvements by saying that it needs to take care of its mainstream customers (likely the majority of its customer base), usually at the expense of those early adopters (the geeks and nerds).

That strategy is a fallacy. It is likely to lead to disaster. Why? Because innovation is what drives corporate profits over the long term, and those early adopters who brought the company its early success are the ones it needs to continually strive to impress. I'm convinced that those geeks, nerds, "enthusiasts," or "influencers," by whatever label you want to stick on them, are the company's best indicator of its future health. Sure, they don't represent an accurate picture of the bulk of the company's customers, but that's not what they're for.

Using nerds to ascertain how happy most of today's customers are with today's products is simply foolish. Geeks and nerds are best used to evaluate the prospective success of future products, since that's what they live for. And, after all, history is littered with examples of everyone eventually using what the geeks adopted years before. Why does this happen? Because geeks digest every nuance of a product, they know what works best. And because they know what works best, they often make the best decisions about what to buy and what to avoid, not only for themselves, but also for their family, friends, and employers.

Companies should view their geekiest customers as the proverbial "canaries in a coalmine," since the nerds are the first to truly understand the full potential (good or bad) of a new technology or product. If your nerd customers are dissatisfied, the future probably doesn't look very bright for your firm. Want to know why? Go ask a nerd or ten...they'll be more than happy to tell you what's on their minds.

For about a month, now, we've been trialing BPL (Broadband over Power Line) Internet service from Current Communications. Current is working with our local power company, Cinergy, to test and roll out its service. As you can see in the screencap below, these results from a recent bandwidth test show it's plenty swift.

To use the service, you get a BPL modem. It looks like a largish wall-wart power plug with some LEDs on it. It has an RJ-45 jack on it to connect to a computer or a router. That's about it.

We opted for the Cadillac level service: 3mbps up, 3mbps down, and a dedicated IP. That runs $49.95 a month, but the price decreases as more people in my neighborhood sign up (my current price with >3 neighbors signed up is a paltry $42.46). Given that was paying $44.95 to RoadRunner for 3mbps down, 384kbps up, and a dynamic IP, Current is a bargain.

Right now, Current only offers BPL service in parts of Cincinnati, Ohio. But, if you happen to live here, check out their website for pricing and availability. Or, if you don't live here, beg them to come to your city next.

Recently, I was looking around for a new home theather audio setup for our family room. A colleague recommended I consider the Rocket Tykes 5.1 speaker system sold by AV123.com. I was also looking for a new receiver oriented towards home theater (we're not true audiophiles, but good movie sound is important to us), and AV123.com was offering a Tykes package that added a Kenwood VRS-7100 digital receiver for just $100 more (these have a street price of $300 and up).

It came, I set it up, and it sounds marvelous. The room these little guys are in is fairly big, but they fill it quite adequately. I'm possibly even happier with the receiver than I am with the speakers -- for what I paid, the Kenwood is an excellent piece of equipment. After adding a rear center speaker (for true 6.1 surround) to the setup, movies sound terrific. I'll post pictures of the setup later if I remember to.

The best web browser available, bar none (and yes, that specifically includes Internet Exploder).

Get it now. Don't make me come over there!

Hey, Swiss knife guys, whip one of these up, would ya?