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Now that we've reached the end of another calendar, in continuing a tradition I started in 2003, below is a review of my 10 predictions for 2009 and an assessment of how accurate I was on each one.

1) Microsoft Launches Windows 7 to Fanfare, Skepticism
Microsoft's two pillars of financial solvency -- Windows and Office -- have been standing on shaky ground recently. Office 2007 was a decent hit, despite it not offering much new and causing significant backward compatibility issues. But Windows Vista, on the other hand, has been an unmitigated disaster. Microsoft even had to resort to tricking users into liking Vista (Mojave, anyone?), it had developed such a bad reputation. Windows 7 will be launched late in 2009 to a general consensus of "it's better," but will not be the "wow" that Microsoft needs to regain the market share it has recently ceded to Apple. But maybe that's a good thing...having strong competitors is usually a good thing for consumer markets.

When Windows 7 was officially launched October 22nd, by any measure, it came out to positive reviews and very good, if not great, sales. Of course, following a dog of a product like Vista will go a long way towards creating pent-up demand, so it wasn't unexpected. However, if you went by the press and hype, you'd think Microsoft was the underdog to Apple instead of still appearing on about 93% of all desktops. Windows 7 has slowed the slight shift towards OS X, but it's not clear yet that any ground is being made up.  Ironically, the best thing to happen to Windows in 2009 may have been the explosion of netbooks (more on that below).

2) Blockbuster Declares Bankruptcy
This may be a bit "out there," but I see exceedingly tough times at Blockbuster. And this isn't vindictiveness...I've been a reasonably happy Blockbuster.com customer for several years, now. I just think that, given the state of its business (poor), the weakness in the economy (near-critical), the nature of its service (luxury), and the rapidity with which that industry is transforming, I think Blockbuster will file for bankruptcy protection to get out of some of its debt, sell off some property (store locations that aren't faring well), and reinvest that into developing newer and more attractive services. So, they aren't going away...yet.

After spending much of 2009 desperately raising capital and refinancing its debt, Blockbuster is trying a variety of tactics to stave off its own demise at the hands of an increasingly varied assortment of competitors.  Netflix and piracy, Blockbuster's perennial nemeses, are joined by Redbox in stressing the company's sweaty grip on life even further.  However, per part of my prediction, Blockbuster announced in early 2009 that it would be closing 128 physical stores.  That number was massively expanded late in 2009 to closer to 1,000 stores.  Additionally, Blockbuster is launching a large kiosk initiative.  It's amazing how consistently the company does exactly what its competitors do, but 2-3 years later.  However, Blockbuster did not enter into any form of bankruptcy during 2009, so I'm declaring this one a failed prediction.

3) Palm Launches New OS to Fanfare, Skepticism
We've all heard the rumors that Palm will be launching "Nova," its replacement for the ancient Palm OS, at CES 2009 in a few days. I'm pretty sure that's going to happen. I'm also pretty sure that Palm will have at least one new device, if not several, running the new OS available by the end of June. While launching phones can take a while, given the carriers' lengthy testing requirements, launching a PDA doesn't, so Palm could certainly come out with two (or more) non-phone PDAs running Nova pretty quickly. And it needs to...the TX is older than my grandmother (at least in technology years). Generally, I predict there will be more nice things said about Nova, and the new devices, than critical, and it will stack up fairly competitively with Android and WM 6.5. What I do not have a lot of faith in is Palm's ability to develop and deliver the ecology of services (e.g., app stores) that customers are now expecting their smartphones to be integrated into. Time will tell on that front.

As we all now know, Nova was introduced as Palm webOS in January, 2009 at CES.  The first device running webOS was the Palm Pre, a nifty portrait QWERTY slider with HVGA multitouch screen.  Also during 2009, a second webOS device, the Palm Pixi, was announced and launched.  However, surprisingly, there were no non-phone webOS devices released.  In hindsight, I guess that makes sense, as Palm just doesn't have the resources (technical or financial) to launch 3+ separate devices in a single year.  Looking back, it's pretty clear that webOS and the Pre were well-received.  In fact, the Pre was the only smartphone to make it onto Twitter's Top-10 Trending Topics list for 2009, something neither the iPhone 3G S nor the Motorola Droid accomplished.  The two frustrating bits for Palm in 2009 have been Sprint's performance as a sole-carrier partner (in the US) for its new devices and the slow growth of the App Catalog.  However, both of these should be resolved in 2010...for Palm's sake, I hope so.

4) Blu-Ray Players Hit $99
During 2009, I think we'll see a raft of Korean and Taiwanese off-brand manufacturers launch budget Blu-Ray players. Just like the 2008 holiday sales saw BD players hit $149 in some stores, 2009 holiday sales will see them hit $99...if not sooner.

As I type this, Wal-Mart is selling a Magnavox NB500MG1F Blu-Ray Player for $98.00.  While it's just a Magnavox, it does meet the minimum criteria for confirming this prediction.

5) Apple Launches a Tablet to Fanfare
This has been a persistent rumor for years, but I think 2009 will see it actually happen. Why? A few reasons. First, Apple is looking to multi-touch as a key differentiator in its product lines, and having a full-screen, large-display MT device would make total sense. Second, it fits perfectly with the needs of the "creative class," Apple's core customer base. And third, it fills out a hole in their mobile product line that netbooks and other devices not running OS X fill nicely, and that's not a good thing for Apple. So, the technology is ready, the market is willing...and now I think Apple will be able to meet the demand.

Ha ha ha ha...um, no.  While many, many individuals would love for that to happen (if only as additional blog fodder), Apple has not announced anything.  However, there is feverish excitement in OS X fanboy camps about the iSlate being launched at an Apple event in January, 2010.  Or not.

6) Consolidation in the Entertainment Industry
2009 will be a strange year on a lot of dimensions. Not only will the stock market be hard to predict, there will be a lot of odd relationships come out of the mess. One industry that is still poised to make things happen is the entertainment industry, where I expect we'll see larger firms (e.g., major movie studios) start to acquire smaller, but very successful, examples from the newer media (e.g., game producers). A good example of the type of transaction I'm imagining would be Vivendi acquiring Ubisoft. I think Time Warner would love to swallow up Electronic Arts, but that might be a bit too big a bite unless something untoward happens to EA's stock price over the next year.

There were a number of major entertainment industry mergers and acquisitions in 2009.  One biggie was Disney scooping up Marvel Entertainment (comic books & movies) for $4 billion. While this deal hasn't been finalized, signs point to it going through. Another deal was the spin-off and merger involving Liberty Media Entertainment and DirecTV.  Is this a baby Time Warner in the making?  Hard to say, but I doubt it.  These two deals pale in comparison to what might turn out to be a merger of tectonic proportions:  Comcast buying 51% of NBC Universal.  If this goes through (in 2010), it will continue the trend of the same companies controlling the pipes and content, which could will cause consumers serious headaches in the years to come.  Or, they'll just continue to ignore the networks more and more and, instead, turn to the Internet for socially constructed content.  In that case, pray for net neutrality...it'll be our only hope.

7) Steve Jobs Announces Transition to New Role
I think concerns over Jobs' health have more merit than most of us want to admit. In 2009, I expect him to announce that he's transitioning into a different role than President and CEO of Apple (and CEO of Pixar). Something that keeps him out of the spotlight while he deals with his health issues will be valuable to keep Apple's stock price up and customer base intact. The move towards reducing his presence in near-term product launches is consistent with this strategy. But, he's far from gone...his influence will still be felt behind the scenes, but we'll see less of him in his traditional role as Apple poster boy.

Despite many people calling me a pessimist, an Apple-hater, and worse, I stood by this prediction.  On January 5, 2009, Sir Jobs sent out this infamous note claiming that his health issues were minor and transient.  But then, just a few days later, he followed up with a bombshell that he was much sicker than that and he'd be leaving until mid-year.  Given his absence at keynotes and overall behavior reminiscent of the Wizard of Oz ("pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!"), his role has clearly changed.  And I take no joy in being right; Jobs is clearly a genius and consumer electronics is better off with him at the height of his abilities.  I look forward to him giving the keynote at WWDC in June, 2010.

8) Facebook Membership Growth Flattens; Twitter Surges
Signs are pointing towards Facebook's popularity beginning to peak. Just as with everything social, when moms and dads begin to frequent the coffee shop, the kids need a new place to hang out. Facebook currently has almost 40 million members in the US. While that number has been skyrocketing since it opened up membership to anyone in September 2006, I think 2009 will see a marked deceleration in its growth. The loss of perceived exclusivity and the hassle of the relatively unprotected app space will combine to make it less appealing to many long-time users and new prospects will find fewer people urging them to get on board. Twitter, however, will see continued growth as it continues to tweak and adapt its environment to meet its core users' needs.

While I'm counting this as a miss, it's actually 50% true.  Facebook's growth did not slow significantly as I'd predicted, but Twitter certainly did have the surge I thought was inevitable.

Let's look at some graphs:

You'll notice that Facebook's growth is pretty continuous up until late 2009, where some outages and privacy issues potentially took away from its momentum.  Now, Twitter...

This is a dramatic acceleration in Twitter's reach.  2009 will clearly go down in history as the year of Twitter.  In fact, Google and Microsoft so believed in it that they both inked deals to include Twitter's stream in their search engines as real-time results.

9) App Stores Dominate Mobile Software Delivery
iPhone's app store, Android's market...these types of bazaars, managed by the sponsors/manufacturers of the mobile operating systems, are coming to be the dominant mode for software distribution to mobile users. It marks a significant break from the traditional model, where mobile developers could sell software from their own sites, through 3rd party aggregators, and through carriers. This new approach is more streamlined, making it easier for users, but also more controlled, which can make it harder to accommodate large and complex ecosystems. The fact that each of the existing app stores serves a relatively small market is why we haven't seen these problems emerge to a point where they start driving users away. 2009 will see continued movement towards these controlled markets and away from the free-form/multi-channel models that previous mobile generations (e.g., Palm OS, Windows Mobile) relied on.

Undoubtedly true. Apple paved the way with this new model and, by the end of 2009, the existence of a robust app store is a requirement for any smartphone platform to be considered a contender. Apple's App Store recently passed 100,000 apps while Android's App Market has around 15,000 titles.  Palm's App Catalog just left beta status and is closing in on 1,000 apps.  In 2009, Windows Mobile, Blackberry, and Symbian app catalogs were all launched as well.  Clearly, this is the dominant mobile app distribution model for the foreseeable future.

10) Line Blurs between "Netbooks" and Notebooks/Laptops
Netbooks are currently a fairly homogeneous, and well-defined, niche of laptop computers. Most of them have an Intel Atom processor, a screen from 8.9" to 10" in size, no optical drive, weigh between 2.2 and 3 lbs, and cost $300-$500. There's a big gap in pricing then between these netbooks and the subnotebooks/ultraportables that often have slightly larger screens, way more RAM and processing power, and cost $1,500 or more. To paraphrase the old adage, markets abhor a vacuum, so I expect we'll start seeing all manner of new small notebooks come into the market in this $500-$1000 range sporting screens in the 9"-12" range with anything from 512MB to 2GB of RAM, a variety of operating systems (XP and Linux will continue to be most popular), and a range of processing and display capabilities. Not everyone needs to play Crysis on their notebook, but not everyone can get by with a 1024x600 screen and do everything inside their browser.

This was evident even early on in 2009, and now, at year's end, the trend is clearly supportive. While initial netbooks were all burdened with screens in the 8"-9" range, recently announced models have 11" and even 12" screens.  Surprisingly, the prices we're willing to pay for netbooks is increasing, too (clear up to $1,500 if you consider the impressively engineered Sony Vaio X).  Sure, it could just be that our definition of "netbook" is expanding.  But, it's hard to argue that the line between netbook and notebook is getting pretty diffused. 

So, looking back, my record for 2009 seems to be 7 right, 3 wrong...about in line with last year. Some of these were hard to determine, as I had packed in several related predictions into a single item, something I'll try not to do when I post my predictions for 2010 in the next day or two. Until then, let me know what you think in the comments below. 

Thanks, and have a great New Year!

I announced a couple weeks ago that the Seidio 1350mAh Extended Life Battery for Palm Pre and a Touchstone Wireless Charger Kit had arrived. I got many a request to post a review of one or both, so here goes.

Seidio 1350mAh Extended Life Battery

This battery replaces the 1150mAh stock battery that comes with the Palm Pre in the exact same volume, so everything fits as it does with the stock battery. I haven't noticed a huge leap in on-time, but the phone does seem to nag me later in the day that it's running out of steam than before.

The main reason I got it was not because it's 200mAh "bigger", but that it's actually $5 cheaper than Palm's OEM battery. Also, it works just fine with the Touchstone (review below). So, really, what's not to like?

Touchstone Wireless Charger Kit

The Touchstone Wireless Charger Kit contains a Touchstone Charger (the puck doodad) and a new back cover for the Palm Pre that incorporates the phone's wireless charging stuff (sorry to be so technical). What drove me to plop down $45 on a Touchstone in the first place was my getting incredibly tired of futzing with the little micro-USB door on the side of the Pre every time I wanted to juice up the phone (which is often).

The puck thing is very minimalistic. The "gecko-feet" adhesive base (which actually contains no adhesive glue or anything) is incredibly sticky...I can barely pull it off my nightstand once it's on. When I do, amazingly, there's no mark or residue. Nifty tech, indeed.

The Touchstone back cover is nicer than the phone's original cover (IMO) because it has this soft-touch coating, much like what you find on digital SLRs and high-end binoculars. It feels nice to the hand...which is, you know, nice.

Once you put the new back on and plug the Touchstone in to a wall outlet (it does not run off USB power), charging the Pre is as simple as placing the phone on the puck. When it magnetically snaps into place, the phone alerts you that it has started charging with a chime and/or alert (depending on position of the ringer switch).

All told, I have mixed emotions about the Touchstone charger. Yes, it's MUCH more convenient than messing with cables, especially in the dark (which is how I go to bed nearly every night due to my wife hitting the hay well before I do). And, I can honestly say that it seems to charge the phone just as quickly as the AC-powered cable does (near empty to full in about 2 hours).

However, it has a couple annoyances as well. First, if the Pre is turned off when it's sat on the charging puck, it turns on...or goes into a quasi-screen-saver mode where it shows the time and any alerts. That's not so annoying. In fact, if it was sitting on my desk at work, I think that'd be rather cool. However, there's no way to disable this feature. So, I now have a rather bright nightlight on my bedside table. I've taken to tossing a small black cloth on it, which is a really lame solution. I hope Palm will add an option to the Pre to disable, or time out, the screen-saver clock, as I don't need it all the time.

Second, the kit doesn't come with the necessary USB power cord and AC adapter to plug it into the wall. You have to use the cord and adapter that came with the phone. That means that you no longer have a cable that can be easily used to hook up your phone to your computer (for doing things like syncing with iTunes, USB mass storage, loading on homebrew apps, or whatever). That's just lame. For the price these things are, Palm should just toss in at least the cable, if not both items, just so the customer has a complete solution out of the box.

If the Touchstone was half the price it currently sells for, I'd easily recommend it. However, with these issues, I have a hard time justifying the cost...it's really a judgment call for the individual Pre owner to make. Once the Chinese knock-offs hit Ebay, however, I expect we'll see a lot more of these on desks.

I started describing my thoughts on the Palm Pre smartphone a couple weeks ago (read part I here). Since then, I've had a few more impressions worth mentioning.

First, the hardware. After 5 weeks or so of daily use, the Pre is holding up really well. I don't notice any significant blemishes anywhere, even on the screen. While some users have reported various failures, including the impressively evocative "oreo-ing" of the unit (where the front half and the back half twist apart from one another), I've had nary a problem. Knock on wood.

Second, Palm is cranking on the OS updates. Since I got the Pre, they've pushed out 1.0.3, 1.0.4, and 1.1.0 firmwares. Unlike most phones, the Pre has this nifty ability to download and install its updates over-the-air. Clicking on the "Updates" app searches Palm's catalog for any new versions to the OS or to any apps I've downloaded via the App Catalog (a nice feature). When it's time for a new OS version, it gives you the option of downloading it slowly while the phone isn't actively being used or downloading it quickly right then. Of course, I opted for the latter. The 1.1.0 update was only 87 MB, which took just a few minutes. One reboot later (automatic) and I was up-and-running. And 1.1.0 mysteriously seemed to speed up just about everything.

Third, I've started toying with some homebrew apps. Sure, Palm has the webOS App Catalog, where all the officially approved apps will be available. But, just as with most mobile OSes, webOS has been hacked wide open, enough for enterprising coders to whip up handy ways to get apps onto the Pre without going through the App Catalog. The newest (and best, IMO) way is via FileCoaster. FileCoaster is the first on-Pre GUI app that permits direct installation of apps from the Internet. Just toss the URL of an app's IPK (webOS installer file) into FileCoaster and it takes care of the download, unpacking, installation, and clean-up. Immediately, the app is available in the launcher...no muss, no fuss. Granted, there's not a lot to get overly excited about yet on the homebrew front, but this is literally just a few weeks old. But, if the progress so far is any indicator, there will be a LOT available very shortly. My prediction is that there will be more than 1,000 apps available by year's end.

Fourth, here are a few of the cool things I've discovered on the Pre since my last write-up:

  • It's kinda fun buying music directly from Amazon's MP3 store on the Pre. I hate that I like it.

  • On a recent roadtrip, I was confident enough that the Sprint Navigation app on the Pre could do a great job in a pinch that I left our Garmin GPS at home.

  • The two Twitter clients out for webOS (Spaz and Tweed) are both excellent in different ways. The cool thing about the Pre is that, because I can multi-task easily, I can have both up at the same time to take advantage of their different strengths. Nifty!

  • I get Gmail messages on the Pre even before they show up in Gmail in my PC's browser.

  • I invested in a Touchstone charger. Yes, it's very cool. And yes, it's incredibly sticky. I can barely pull it off my nightstand, yet it leaves zero residual stickiness. Crazy. I just wish they were cheaper.

  • Orb, the free media streaming app, works great when streaming my music collection from my home media PC to the Pre. It does not, however, work with video, yet. Which is fine, really...all I really care about streaming is music. If Orb ever adds an H.264 stream option to its server app, or the Pre starts supporting 3GP video playback, I'll be golden.

Finally, there's the ultimate question: is the Palm Pre a viable replacement for my Palm OS smartphone? If I'm a good case study, the answer is yes. As a long-time Palm OS user, I relied on my Treo/Centro every day (sometimes several times an hour), so replacing it entirely was something I doubted the Pre could do. But, with a few legacy apps safely tucked away in Classic (the Palm OS emulator on the Pre), 100% of my needs are met. The best part of that is that I think we've only seen the beginning of what will be an amazing platform.

I do hope Verizon gets the Pre, or some webOS device, in early 2010. Not that I expect to jump ship from Sprint, but more carriers means more people able to enjoy these phones. I also hope that Palm can launch their rumored Pixie/Eos device, as I think I'd like that form-factor a bit more than the slider. It's not that I dislike the keyboard slider, but I'm so used to having the keyboard available at all times that I find not having it a bit offputting. But I'm sure I'm a little odd that way (among others).

So...any questions? What should I cover in the next update?

My Palm Real Reviewer stint, which lasts for about 6 months, started a couple weeks ago. The device they currently have me using is the Palm Pre, the first smartphone running Palm's all-new webOS handheld operating system.

As a long-time (since early 1996) veteran of Palm OS devices -- really, I can honestly say that I can count on two hands the number of days since May of 1996 that I've gone without relying on a Palm OS device for something -- adapting to an entirely new platform had me a bit apprehensive. But, as Palm OS is going the way of OS/2 and CP/M, I'm forced to move to something, and the Pre is pretty enticing. So, this is my first attempt at summarizing some of the highs and lows of the Palm Pre and webOS, especially as it compares to my previous phone, the Palm Centro.

1. Man, the Palm Pre is teensy! Coming from Treos weighing down my pants over the past several years, I thought the Centro was rather petite, but the Pre makes the Centro look downright beefy. Shorter, narrower, thinner, and lighter, the Pre is very compact and feels nice in the hand.

2. The slider is a bit of a hassle. Having been on Treos and a Centro since the Treo 300 first came out in late 2002, I've gotten used to having a physical QWERTY keyboard on my phone. In fact, that's reason #1 why I didn't consider getting an iPhone. Having used one (my sister's) a fair amount, plus hands-on time in the Apple store, I just didn't feel comfortable with the virtual keyboard. When it comes to typing speed and tactile feedback, there's no substitute for physical buttons. However, when closed, the Pre has only one button (which brings up the cards view) visible. To access the keyboard, it has to be slid out from underneath the display. Yes, that's reasonably easy to do and I'm getting increasingly used to doing it, but it's still not as convenient as having the keys accessible all the time. The trade-off, of course, is the extra height of the display that might have to be given up. Those extra 160 pixels are very handy, so I'm not sure this isn't a great trade-off. More time is needed for me to make up my mind on this aspect. I do like the keyboard, however...very easy and comfortable to type on, in my opinion.

3. Multitasking FTW! Seriously...I had no idea how much I'd come to love multitasking on the Palm Pre. The card view in webOS makes it incredibly easy to switch between tasks, something my old Palm OS devices never did. Opening a new app closed the previous one, sometimes losing state information, which made it less than convenient. For example, if I wanted to add a phone number for someone to a calendar entry, I'd have to stop editing the calendar item, open the addressbook, find the person, copy the phone number, open the calendar back up, navigate back to the day and event I was editing, open it for editing again, and paste the number in. With the Pre, when I use Universal Search to find the contact, I can open that entry and copy the phone number while keeping the calendar event open for editing. This is so much more efficient and convenient than non-multitasking Palm OS was. And, as I have used Windows Mobile devices off and on over the years, even though WinMo does multitask, it doesn't let the user switch among running tasks nearly as fluidly as webOS does.

4. Comparing the Pre to the Centro is interesting. There are loads of really cool things the Pre can do that the Centro cannot (e.g., GPS, multitasking, widescreen video, Synergy-based PIM syncing, etc.). However, there are several little things the Centro can do that the Pre cannot...yet. For example, here's a short list of functions that come to mind as missing on the Pre (although I'm entirely optimistic that all these minor issues will be resolved in due time, either by Palm or by a developer):
    • Can't copy text or images from websites and emails (the browser and email app don't permit that).
    • Controlling the email client with keyboard shortcuts (I was a dedicated Snappermail user, which has very powerful keyboard commands to facilitate rapid processing of one's Inbox...the Pre is missing all that and relies entirely on gestures and on-screen button presses, which are slower).
    • Heavy customization via 3rd party apps/hacks (For example, one app I always used on my Treos and Centro was KeyCaps600, which let you capitalize a letter when typing by using a long key press and get the symbol for a key by hitting it twice quickly. That's an incredibly convenient function and one I still miss dearly on the Pre).
    • Video recording. Why is that not enabled on the Pre? It has a much better camera and loads more storage space than my Centro...so why no video recording?
    • Miscellaneous settings (e.g., font size) in most apps
    • Emoticons in chat (my wife and I both thought the ones on Palm OS were cute...why'd they go away?)
    • Universal search into email messages, calendar events, tasks, and memos (this seems like a pretty obvious "to be added" item on Palm's engineering checklist)

5. The camera is WONDERFUL. I use the camera on my phone a lot...over a thousand photos in my personal collection show up as having been taken on a Pre or Centro. The 3-megapixel camera (with LED flash, even) on the Pre is terrific. Here's a shot I took out my front door just now as an example:

6. So far, I miss my expansion storage slot much less than I thought I would. I always used the SD card in my Treos very heavily, such as for capturing photos and video, storing off-board apps, and keeping some media handy. One use case where I missed it so far was when I wanted to copy a bunch of photos I took with the Pre's camera to my PC. I had to break out the USB cable, which I don't always have with me. Before, I could just pop out the SD or MicroSD card and insert that into my PC's card reader. Maybe they're equally convenient, but my laptop has an SD card reader built in, yet I'd have to carry a microUSB cable with me to connect the Pre. One offsetting feature the Pre has is the ability to upload to photo-sharing websites, such as Photobucket and Facebook, directly from the photo viewer. My Centro could kinda-sorta do that with Facebook, but not as simply and elegantly as the Pre does.

7. It's a really FUN device to use. The UI is gorgeous and nearly everything is quite intuitive, so it's no problem getting the hang of operating the phone. I can hand it to people and most can do whatever they like with minimal intervention/instruction from me. Getting it back from them is usually the hardest part. :-)

8. Unified IM/SMS is quite nice. Being able to easily switch back and forth between IM (e.g., Google Talk or AIM) and texting/SMS is nifty, especially since it shows each of your contacts as a threaded "conversation" regardless of how each message was sent or received.

9. Battery life could be better. I've found some settings (e.g., set email polling to "as messages arrive" to rely on push rather than an "every 15 minutes" type pull) that give better performance for me and am now able to get through a full day with room to spare on the battery meter. I can't go 2 days like I did with the Centro, but I tend to charge nightly anyway. Given all the tech the Pre has that the Centro doesn't (e.g., Wi-Fi, 8GB of RAM, GPS, an HVGA screen, etc.), yet they use the same 1150mAh battery, it's not surprising that the Pre's battery life is a bit worse. But that just gives me an excuse to get one of those nifty Touchstone wireless chargers. And, hey, at least I can swap in a new battery in a pinch.

10. Included out-of-the-box is a pretty nice variety of apps. One I was especially surprised and pleased by is Sprint Navigation, which basically is all the best features of a GPS unit (e.g., real-time 3-D and 2-D mapping with street name pronunciation and multiple route calculation modes). But, there's so much potential here that I cannot WAIT for the flood of apps to hit once the webOS SDK is officially launched and Palm's App Catalog is opened to the public. Based on talking with some devs I know who have access to the SDK, it's really easy to get an app fleshed out and working, so I expect we'll see a small tidal wave of stuff come out in the latter parts of 2009. And that's about when Palm and Adobe should be bringing Flash support to the Pre, which will make some really interesting apps (especially games) possible.

Overall, based on about 2 weeks of having a Palm Pre in my pocket every day, I think it is a very, very promising piece of gear and webOS is poised to be a major platform for years to come. If you have specific questions about the user experience you'd like me to address in future posts, please leave a comment. And, if you're a Twitter user, you can catch some of my shorter comments about the Pre by following CRA1G. Thanks!

Some major pre-launch reviews of the Palm Pre and their concluding thoughts:

Engadget: "Ultimately -- carriers and developers notwithstanding -- what Palm has done is not only a major feat for a company of its size (and its dire position), and we think it's an important step in the evolution of mobile computing. Just like the iPhone's notches up the ladder, and the G1's contributions, the Pre moves the game forward in a very real way."

David Pogue / New York Times: "So do the Pre's perks (beautiful hardware and software, compact size, keyboard, swappable battery, flash, multitasking, calendar consolidation) outweigh its weak spots (battery life, occasional sluggishness, ringer volume)? Oh, yes indeedy."

PreCentral.net: "Palm has hit a home run with the Pre. Probably not a grand slam, but a definite home run."

MyPre.com: "This is first-generation hardware running a first-generation OS, and yet it delivers not only the expected functionality but an innovative UI, solid cellular performance and synchronization features that rivals are already scrabbling to counter. The Pre isn't perfect, but it's very good; when Palm start rolling out OTA updates and delivering things like video recording, it'll get even better. We've high hopes for the Pre's success, but we're even more excited about where Palm will take webOS."

Gizmodo: "The Pre may have hardware that's worse than the G1/G2, but the whole package--the software and the hardware--isn't bad. It's good. It's different. That's something we can get behind. I can''t wait to see what Palm gets dealt in their next hand."

Boy Genius Report: "The OS is great. There's no ifs ands or buts; it's really refreshing to see something that's brand new with a UI unlike anything else out there. The only problem with this is, Palm's never been a hardware company that anyone's really cared about. They have been the furthest thing from innovative since circa-2003 -- their hardware has always been second rate at best and it doesn't seem to be changing now. Couple that with the nation's underdog carrier at a $299 price-point (before rebate), and we're not sure how many people are going to be lined up overnight, yet we're pretty confident once people are able to play a real unit themselves, there will be more than a lot of happy Palm Pre customers."

PC Magazine: "Overall, though, webOS is the most exciting mobile platform I've used in quite a while, and the Pre is pretty impressive, so it nabs our Editors' Choice for smartphones on Sprint."

Walt Mossberg / Wall Street Journal: "All in all, I believe the Pre is a smart, sophisticated product that will have particular appeal for those who want a physical keyboard. It is thoughtfully designed, works well and could give the iPhone and BlackBerry strong competition -- but only if it fixes its app store and can attract third-party developers."

CNET: "Despite some missing features and performance issues that make it less than ideal for on-the-go professionals, the Palm Pre offers gadget lovers and consumers well-integrated features and unparalled multitasking capabilities. The hardware could be better, but more importantly, Palm has developed a solid OS that not only rivals the competition but also sets a new standard in the way smartphones handle tasks and manage information."

Wired: "The Pre emphatically shows that Palm has not reached the stage of suffixes. And multitasking rules!"

CNN Money / Fortune: "That means even if you're one of the folks who likes the Pre's features a bit better than the iPhone's, you might have to do without some of the cooler mobile apps for a while. If that's OK with you, the Pre is a very good choice."

Michael Gartenberg: "Palm's clearly delivered on the vision they articulated last January and the Pre/WebOS combo are clearly going to be a mobile to force to be reckoned with. It's the first platform that's really differentiated itself from the iPhone and looks to be among the few devices that could serve as competition to that most iconic of phones."

Associated Press: "Move over, iPhone. You've had two years on top of the smart phone world. Now there's a touch-screen phone with better software: the Palm Pre."

Phonescoop: "The Pre offers a lot, but has some glaring omissions. If you're willing to give up features such as video capture and don't mind being limited to 8GB of storage, the Pre will offer you excellent personal information and messaging management along with a user interface that outperforms many others in return."

FOX News: "My takeaway: The Palm Pre is an impressive device with a slick design and an even slicker user experience. It took me five minutes to learn how to use it, unlike the Sprint Instinct, which I almost threw into oncoming traffic."

USA Today: "I've been testing the Pre for more than two weeks and like it a lot. Pre is easy on the eyes. I can't think of a more comfortable cellphone in my hand. It has a lovely screen for taking in YouTube videos or browsing the Web. The "always-connected" software foundation at its core, which Palm designed from scratch and calls WebOS, is slick and rife with possibilities."

Laptop Magazine: "We've seen many smart phones come and go since the original iPhone, and the $199 Palm Pre is the first device we've tested whose user interface not only matches up well to Apple's offering, but also beats it in some areas. The Pre isn't just cool and fun to use; its highly integrated approach to calendars, contacts, and messaging, the way it elegantly multitasks, and makes apps and notifications accessible across the device change the game. However much the Pre does for you without your lifting a finger, managing the number of open apps (so you don't hit the limit) can feel like work; and we wish the phone lasted longer between charges. Nevertheless, Palm and Sprint have a hit on their hands with the Pre, and the webOS is a smart phone platform to be reckoned with."

Palm Infocenter: "The Palm Pre delivers on Palm's promise of a bringing a next generation differentiated product to market. WebOS is a powerful and compelling new mobile platform. Despite being a 1.0 product, the Pre is pleasantly functional and it users in new level of simplicity and ease of use. Coupled with the attractive hardware design and charming display, this adds up to a distinctively agreeable experience for mobile phone users. Palm has a lot riding on the Pre and it now appears to be fully back in the game with a superb combination of software and hardware."

Brighthand: "The Palm Pre has been tasked with an almost impossible job: it's the device that's supposed to put both Palm and Sprint back on course after months in the doldrums. Amazingly, it just might do it. Palm has created an operating system and a suite of software that's easy to use but powerful, and has the features both consumers and business people are looking for in a smartphone."

SlashGear: "Still, these are shortcomings in a first-generation platform on first-generation hardware, and we're happy giving Palm the benefit of the doubt. Perhaps it's the threat of financial ruin, but the company seems far more attuned to user feedback than previously; there's a lot riding on the Pre, and Palm know we know it. Thankfully they've delivered a smartphone not only capable but honestly impressive and distinctive. Improvements to webOS will only make it better, but even in this fledgling state we'd readily recommend the Palm Pre."

MobileTechReview: "A most excellent start from Palm with their first new Web OS smartphone. The hardware is attractive and the Pre looks great, feels great (albeit slippery and fingerprint-y) and is smaller than the iPhone and many other touch screen smartphones. The phone is intuitive, fun and generally responsive, though there are occasional minor slowdowns. The capacitive touch screen is not only beautiful but easy to control and the Pre has all the bells and whistles of smartphone except local syncing: email with Exchange support, GPS, top notch web browser, WiFi and Bluetooth. If you're a Sprint user and have been hankering for something truly different and fun, the Pre is a go."

The teaser video featuring Roger McNamee and Jon Rubenstein arguing over how to promote Palm's forthcoming Pre smartphone is, by most standards, pretty funny. And by Silicon Valley geek standards, it's hilarious. I think Palm would be justified using Roger and Jon in some future tongue-in-cheek ads.

This video was shown at the D7 conference today. Have a look:

Acknowledgment: I owe the inspiration for the "Mac & Ruby" abomination above to this tweet by Rene Ritchie, and I'm quite sure I'll never again be invited to Palm's Sunnyvale headquarters because of it.

Shortly after Palm had announced the Pre, its new webOS-powered smartphone, Roger McNamee made the rounds on financial shows touting the product and the company. McNamee, in case that name is unfamiliar to you, is an investor with Elevation Partners, one of Palm's major shareholders.

Here's one of his interviews; he talked about webOS and the Pre, as well as EP's stake in Palm, on CNBC on March 6th, 2009. Below the video is a transcription of some of the claims he makes about the Pre.

"It has a clock, it has your calendar, and it has GPS. So it knows not only where you are, it knows where you should be. So, for example, if you were going to be late for a meeting, it not only alerts you that you're going to be late, it will automatically email ahead to the people you're going to see and tell them. It automatically downloads all of your maps each night before your meeting for the next day."

He made similar claims in another interview around this time (I cannot find that video, though), so this was not a one-off mental slip.

I don't know about you, but I've watched darn near every walkthrough and demo video I can find on the Palm Pre and have never seen these automation features mentioned anywhere other than by McNamee. If the Pre were so advanced as to be able to link its calendar, GPS, and email apps to effectuate the type of autonomy McNamee is describing here, well, I just don't think Palm would've kept it a secret until now.

What do you think? Was he exaggerating, or does Palm have a surprise in store for us come June 6th?

While using my Centro, I began wondering how much wider, if at all, the Palm Pre's screen would be. I knew it was 3.1" diagonal, but how does that compare to the Centro's square 2.2" screen? Or my old Treo 700p's 2.5" square screen?

Not being able to visualize, I whipped up a quick and dirty comparison and included two other 320x480 screen mobile devices (the iPhone and the Palm TX) just for reference:

Yes, the Palm Pre's screen is smaller than the iPhone's, but the whole device more pocketable due to being narrower and shorter overall. So, until we figure out how to pack a 20" display into something you can drop in your pants pocket, there will continue to be this compromise between screen size and overall dimensions; we want one to go up and the other to go down, and borders can only get so thin.

For another take on screen specs, check out my recent post: Mobile Device Displays: A Few Words on Pixel Density

Palm and Apple: two icons of the consumer technology industry. Over the past 15 years, they've had a complicated relationship. These firms have both learned from each others' mistakes, emulated each others' successes, and, for the first time, are now competing squarely against each other for mastery of the smartphone market.

In 1993, Apple launched what many consider to be the first serious attempt at a sophisticated PDA (personal digital assistant): the Newton MessagePad. Typically referred to simply as a Newton, it was, by most measures, a disaster in the marketplace. While it seemed like a brilliant concept, its uneven performance -- most notably, its lackluster handwriting recognition -- lead it to become the target of much mockery (e.g., several mentions in Doonesbury).

Watching all this transpire was a small group of entrepreneurs and inventors who wanted a crack at the PDA space. This foundling company lead by Jeff Hawkins was Palm. In 1996, it launched its own take on the PDA: the Palm Pilot. Palm had learned several lessons from Apple's experience with the Newton.

For example, instead of trying to transcribe anyone's handwriting (a feat difficult even for the human brain), Palm decided to require the user to learn Graffiti, a special script specifically developed for better handwriting recognition. And it worked; the Pilot soared to heights of popularity, partly because Graffiti was a much better solution to the input problem.

Apple abandoned the PDA market and, after failing to purchase Palm, their paths crossed only very infrequently over the next several years at the corporate level. However, several Apple employees left to join Palm. That trend continued; in fact, a significant percentage of Palm's employees are today former Apple staffers. Palm's Chairman, Jon Rubenstein, lead development of the original iPod while at Apple; he joined Palm and launched the program that resulted in the new Pre smartphone. That cross-breeding may be part of the reason that Palm and Apple continued to learn from each other.

In 1997, upon Steve Jobs' return to Apple, it decided it would cease this practice (for various reasons that continue to be debated to this day). Around the same time, Palm decided to start licensing its Palm OS to other hardware/device makers. Palm quickly began to understand the complexities associated with trying to run a business that sold devices while licensing the OS that ran those devices to its competitors. Diverging product lines and pressure from licensees to open up the OS beyond what Palm could readily manage eventually lead Palm to split in two; its device (PalmOne) and OS (PalmSource) sides went their separate ways with only a licensing agreement and some lingering animosity to connect them.

A few years later, Palm found that the venerable Palm OS was running out steam and chose to begin developing a Linux-based replacement. That new OS, which has been called webOS, will launch on the Palm Pre June 6, 2009.

This OS replacement situation was similar to one Apple faced about a decade ago. Around the time of Jobs' return, Apple decided to begin phasing out the original proprietary Mac OS and replace it with the new UNIX-based OS X, which launched in 2001.

Another way Palm has learned from Apple is how it handles product launches. Steve Jobs has long been considered master of the product launch. Apple tightly controls pre-launch information leaks, highly engineers new products so as to rely on minimal "patches" after launch, and puts heavy emphasis on industrial design. Palm's latest launch, that of the Palm Pre, has all the trademarks of an Apple event. Information has been, for the most part, carefully managed. Palm has taken extreme care in ensuring that the product that hits the streets on June 6 is as devoid of flaws as possible. And the trade-offs associated with form versus functionality are often skewed towards the former (e.g., the rationale for not including a removable memory card slot in the Pre was to ensure the unit was as sleek and small as possible). While both companies have less-than-perfect track records in product launches (e.g., Apple's MobileMe and Palm's Foleo), Palm is clearly learning from Apple's successes in this regard.

But the learning hasn't been all one-way; Apple has also learned quite a bit from Palm's experiences over the past 13 years. Several design decisions in the iPhone are straight out of Palm's playbook: a touchscreen, icon-based interface; an external "ringer" switch to silence the device; an application-launcher "home" screen; and so forth. While the iPhone is different in many ways from any Treo or Palm device ever made, it is clear that some elements were lifted from Palm's successful line of handhelds and smartphones. Palm returned the favor by including some multitouch gestures similar to those used in the iPhone; Apple was unhappy enough with that to threaten legal action, but nothing came of it (yet).

Apple also learned from one of Palm's main failings, which was how it managed third-party development in order to create value for its user community. While Palm had occasionally encouraged and/or partnered with software sites that catered to Palm OS users (e.g., Stingersoft, PalmGear, and Handango), there was never a centralized, easy-to-access catalog for those new to the platform. And even if the user found one of those sites, he still had to navigate downloading to a PC, sometimes unzipping and/or running an installer application, and then syncing the new app to his device. All told, it was not a thoughtfully engineered user experience suitable for the masses. Apple's App Store greatly improved all that by making the one place with all apps available directly from the device. While some might argue that the lack of an open market ecosystem retards innovation, there's no debate over the improvement the App Store approach has had on users' familiarity and usage of 3rd party software.

One area that both companies have had similarly poor performance is interacting with the fan community. Apple is notorious for suing blogs over rumors and product leaks. Palm has sued websites over naming issues. Both companies have had their share of PR faux pas when it comes to handling contentious issues on the Internet. Apple found itself in hot water over how it addressed pricing changes shortly after the 1st-gen iPhone launch. Palm messed up an opportunity with the PreDevCamp crowd over secrecy/transparency pressures (although that appears to be reconciled, now). While it's easy to make original mistakes, let's hope that both companies improve how they manage their community relations.

While I'm certainly not claiming that either Palm or Apple is beholden to the other company for its success (or failure), it seems clear that both companies have carefully observed each other and tried to learn from their experiences. Not replicating your competitors' mistakes is always helpful.

Going forward, as Palm and Apple find each other squarely in the other company's sights, it will be fascinating to watch how each move is countered and each new product is reacted to. With all the history and common blood linking these two firms, this match-up could be one of the more compelling and interesting over the next few years.

Update: Rene Ritchie pointed me (indirectly) to a list of Apple's product flops over the years, which is interesting reading to reflect on when you start thinking the company can do no wrong.

Update #2: Fortune has an interesting story on the impending rivalry: Palm fights back (against Apple)

Palm has announced something that many Palm OS die-hards have been waiting to hear: the Pre smartphone will have the ability to run Palm OS legacy applications when it launches sometime in the first half of 2009.

PreCentral.net broke this story on April 1st, meaning it took a bit more convincing than normal that this was, in fact, true.

The "Classic" emulator will be provided by MotionApps. As you can see on the graphic, they cleverly use the bottom third of the screen to represent the standard Palm's hardware buttons, meaning most functions should be usable on regular apps. Hacks and system-level utilities, such as things that change how the keyboard functions, alter Palm OS preferences, or access specific bits of hardware on the Treo (e.g., the camera) likely will not work at all.

One interesting thing is the performance gain that MotionApps' Classic will offer to legacy Palm OS apps:

Compared to Treo 700p your PalmOS apps will run approximately twice as fast on Classic.

Wow! That speaks volumes about how poweful the Pre's new TI OMAP 3440 CPU will be if it can run apps in emulation mode twice as fast as the 700p's 312 MHz Intel XScale PXA270 processor.

While using crusty (in most cases) Palm OS apps isn't the main reason so many are excited about the Palm Pre, it is certainly comforting knowing that those of us who still rely on a Palm OS device as our regular smartphone, but want to move to the Pre when it launches, won't have to lose a lot of functionality while we wait on developers to port over their apps or code up replacements that are better integrated with the Pre's webOS platform.

Backward compatibility is truly the best of both worlds, the old and the new.

Update: Here's a short video of a Palm rep demoing the Classic emulator for Phonescoop:

The Palm Pre looks like it will be an amazing piece of kit, and webOS, Palm's new mobile operating system, sounds light years ahead of the now decrepit Palm OS. However, as a long-time Palm OS user (I got my first Palm OS device, a USRobotics Pilot 5000, in May, 1996), I've come to rely heavily upon, and truly enjoy, several applications that may not be ported over to the webOS-based Pre.

Here's a short list of 5 applications that I'll miss when I migrate to the new Palm Pre (assuming it doesn't come with something equivalent):

1) Capital & Function Key Customizer -- A utility that greatly increases the usefulness of my Treo's keyboard is KeyCaps600, which enables capital letters by press-and-hold and enables symbols by double-pressing the key. This is much faster than hitting the Shift and Symbol buttons prior to the keypress. Given the Pre's hardware keyboard, something like this would be a natural project for the aspiring programmer.

2) Mode / Profile Manager -- Profiles is a utility that does some amazing things. First, it lets you set up different hardware profiles, which determine how the phone works (e.g., backlight level, ringer volume, vibrate mode, etc.). For example, I have a "Meeting" profile that turns off the volume for all purposes, but enables vibrate for calls, text messages, and other notifications. Doing all those things separately would take many steps, but Profiles combines them all into a single switch. Second, Profiles lets me automatically switch among these hardware profiles manually or automatically based on triggers (e.g., calendar events, time of day, etc.). For example, I have a trigger set up to completely silence the phone and disable vibrate at 10pm so as to keep inbound calls and text messages from waking up my wife. It then re-enables all those alerts at 6am. It's incredibly handy and I'm really hoping that kind of functionality is included with the Pre...or comes out shortly after it's launched.

3) Button Customizer -- I've gotten totally spoiled by LudusP, a utility that lets me remap many of my 700p's hardware buttons. I imagine someone is already working on a way to make the Pre's one hardware button (apart from the physical keyboard) do more things than just bring up the app panel...at least I hope so.

4) File Browser -- A powerful file management app makes light work of moving, deleting, and copying media files and other content. With 8GB of onboard storage, the Pre better have a decent interface for managing all that stuff.

5) Backup -- An automated backup utility, like Backup Man, will be impossible to replicate since the Pre has no expandable storage / flash memory card slot. Hopefully, its "cloud" functionality will make this moot...hopefully.

The Pre looks like it will be an incredible device, but there's always room for improvement...or at least customization.

Sprint sent out a rather innocuous-looking notice dated February 16, which arrived at our house yesterday. Opening it reveals two interesting bits of information:

1) Sprint will be increasing the replacement fees it charges to its Total Equipment Protection (TEP) program customers based on a two-tier system; pricier phones, including all Palm devices (which, strangely, are listed under the old PalmOne brand), Blackberries, and assorted other smartphones are listed as Tier 2, meaning a $100 replacement fee (versus the $50 fee it previously charged). These changes go into effect April 19, 2009.

2) Listed among the PalmOne [sic] devices is a model I've not previously heard of: The "TREO Jones". Anyone have any idea what that is? My guess is that it's the forthcoming Treo Pro.

It's also interesting that they refer to the Palm Centro by its much less common name, the Treo 690p, which seems odd for a document meant to be read by non-technical customers.

Sloppy work, Sprint...and disappointing.

A lot has been written about displays on mobile devices; smartphones and portable media players rely heavily on their screens to both display information and allow interaction. A lot of consumers might consider display SIZE when thinking about their next mobile device purchase, but I'd like them to also consider another, slightly more technical, attribute: PIXEL DENSITY.

It's obvious that display sizes vary a lot in the smartphone and PMP world. One comparison of a few relatively recent devices showed a variety of sizes and aspect ratios:

When publishing the specs of devices, most often, we're given two pieces of information about the display:
• Its resolution, expressed in pixels along each side (e.g., 320x240)
• Its diagonal measurement, as in the diagram below

However, we're rarely given the statistic that has a significant effect on a screen's readability and our enjoyment in looking at it, which is the pixel density. Screens with low pixel density can have that "blocky" effect, which can make text unpleasurable to read and photos look, well, yucky.

So, higher pixel density is always good, right? Unfortunately, no. The human eye is limited in its ability to perceive resolution...more than about 300 dots per inch (dpi) and our eyes can no longer distinguish them from each other. High-quality print output is generally in the 300 dpi range. Photos generally don't need to be this high to convey good detail (see my Photo Printing Worksheet for more info).

So where does that leave us with device displays? Well, there's a pretty broad range of what people find acceptable. I consider myself a screen snob and am generally unhappy with displays below about 170 pixels per inch (ppi). However, as noted above, more isn't always better...a display with 350 ppi isn't going to be much better than one with 300 ppi, and may even be worse. The higher the pixel density, usually, the smaller (physically) fonts appear, making it more difficult to read.

We can calculate pixel density (in terms of pixels per inch) by knowing the screen resolution and diagonal size, but it requires a bit of algebra. So, I created an Excel spreadsheet with those calculations and whipped up a table of some popular smartphones, PDAs & PMPs to show the range of pixel densities found in mobile devices today.

This is simply a screen grab of that Excel sheet (here's the Excel file if you want to download it for your own use), but it illustrates how impressive some of these recent devices have gotten in terms of displays. Sony has a weird fetish for painfully high pixel densities, both on their phones and some of the subnotebooks, but RIM, which resisted higher-resolution displays for a long time, now has some Blackberries with really stunning screens.

Hopefully, this will help you think about the pixel density of the next smartphone or PMP you plan to buy, since the display is one of the biggest influences on how much many people enjoy their mobile devices.

In keeping an eye on the Palm Pre news, I ran across this photo on Crave's coverage of Palm's Mobile World Congress display:

Beyond the uses Andrew Lim suggests, which are all well and good, the original intent of that mirrored surface is likely to help someone position the phone so that taking photos of themselves is a bit more reliable (much better than the tiny mirrored domes on so many phones these days).

What other uses do you think it might have?

It's been about 8 months since our first Hot/Not List, so I thought I'd post an updated one:

HOT

• Logitech Squeezebox - After Logitech's acquisition of Slim Devices, a lot of fans of the smaller company's products were concerned that innovation would halt and corporate fossilization would set in, as happens in so many of these cases. Well, it couldn't be further from the truth. Slim's innovative products are benefiting from Logitech's branding and distribution muscle and the combined firm is churning out really impressive audio streaming devices. Our home audio ecosystem now consists of a Squeezebox Duet controller, two receivers, and a Boom; these three cover about 80% of the house and it's wonderful to have perfectly synced music streamed throughout without breaking the bank.
  
• Palm - The Pre smartphone was the buzz of CES and is still making strong headlines at MWC. Sprint may have a winner on its hands with this new device.
  
• Sprint - Coming off a really impressive turnaround regarding its customer service and anticipation of its 4G wireless network, Sprint could be poised for strong growth in the next few years.
  
• Aptera - So far, this innovative hypermileage boutique car-maker in California has avoided some of the pitfalls that its performance-oriented sibling Tesla Motors has made, and the 2e vehicle it should be shipping very soon looks like it could be a key evolutionary link in transforming the way we think about cars.
  
• Twitter - Easily the most addictive thing I've tried recently.
  
• Windows 7 - Sure, it's still in beta, but I am SO looking forward to its release. As much as I've panned Vista over the years, I think 7 will be a winner.
  

NOT

• Cloud-Based Contact Management - Even with Google's recent improvements to Gmail Contacts, there are no really excellent cloud-friendly contact management solutions available. The best I've found is ClearSync, and that isn't as widely compatible as most would like.
• Battery Technology - Seriously...scientists and engineers have been working on this for decades and we're still not fundamentally better than we were 20 years ago.
• Obese Netbooks - Almost by definition, a "netbook" should be incredibly lightweight. Why, then, are we seeing netbooks weighing over 3 lbs released to market??
• Winter - by definition. I am quite ready for Spring, thanks very much.
• Digital Transition Delay - We set the date for February 17th, and now Congress is pushing it back to June 12 for those stations that want extra time. Why? Delaying it doesn't solve anything and, in fact, actually increases the costs of the conversion and sows more consumer confusion. Clearly a lose-lose proposition.

There has been a lot of talk about the Palm Pre and how its name is meant to invoke the phone's ability to anticipate your needs and act upon them before you ask it to. A couple of concrete examples have come straight from Roger McNamee, head of Elevation Partners, a tech-centric venture capital firm which now has 20% of its fund in Palm, in this video interview:

"...but better than that, it does stuff for you. When you wake up in the morning, it has taken your calendar, if you ask it to, downloaded the maps for your whole day, downloaded the Wikipedias for the people you're going to visit and the companies you're going to see. Why is it on PCs you have to go and do all that? And when you're late -- get this -- when you're late, it -- remember, this thing has GPS, it has a clock, and it has your calendar, so it not only knows where you are, it knows where you're supposed to be and when -- and so when it realizes you're going to be late, it says, 'hey, not only are you going to be late, but I can take care of it for you. I can send an email to your assistant, or to the people in the meeting...which would you prefer? And oh, by the way, here's the map.'"

To many, this sounds like something that blurs the line between magic and sentient robots (witchcraft meets Skynet, if you will). To others, it's the logical culmination of converging technologies, and, frankly, they're not sure why it took so long. One such person is Don Norman, an industrial designer with a resume a mile long; he's worked at Apple and HP, is a design professor at Northwestern University, and is co-founder of the Nielsen Norman Group.

Don Norman gave the keynote at the 2005 PalmSource Developer's Conference (the last year the event was held). In that speech, he professed amazement and dismay at his car's inability to put to good use the basic technologies already in and around it. Paraphrasing (from memory) that portion of his speech:

"So my car, a BMW, has a computer on board that lets me know when the oil needs to be changed. What does it do with this information? It illuminates a little light on the dashboard and then expects me to respond appropriately. Why not provide a little more information? Instead of just an idiot light, why can't it use the GPS it has to tell me the phone number of the nearest BMW dealership? Let's take that one step further. The car has Bluetooth so I can send and receive calls through my cellphone when I'm driving. My cellphone also has my calendar in it. Why doesn't my car, sensing it needs an oil change, look at my calendar, figure out a 2-hour period when I'm not busy, add an appointment, call the dealership, make the appointment, and then let me know all that's been done? The technology is there...we just need to integrate it and make it talk to each other."

Clearly, if the Pre comes out with the type of precognitive powers Roger McNamee is describing, the Palm engineers and designers working on webOS took Dr. Norman's comments to heart.

Of course, given the efforts Jeff Hawkins (inventor of the Palm Pilot and founder of Palm) has put into mapping cognition and other fundamental activities of the brain, as well as his close ties to Palm even now, he may have been even more influential on this amazing capacity for anticipatory assistance.

Personally, I'm hoping webOS and the Pre are as revolutionary as the Pilot was back in the Spring of 1996. It's been 13 years...we're due for something exciting from Palm.

A mere 12 days ago, I posted GearBits' Predictions for 2009. To my surprise, some of them are already coming true:

3) Palm Launches New OS to Fanfare, Skepticism

I predicted that Palm would announce its new OS and show off at least one device at CES, which they did...in spades. While most coverage has been off-the-charts positive, there have been some nattering nabobs of negativism who feel there's just can't be a way for Palm to come back. Palm's next big hurdle is actually getting the Pre through FCC approval and into Sprint's stores.

7) Steve Jobs Announces Transition to New Role

My guess was that Jobs' health concerns were more serious than the public was being led to believe. Today, Jobs announced he was taking some time because his "health-related issues are more complex than [he] originally thought." Given Jobs' recent statement that his weight loss was due merely to an easily treatable hormone imbalance and expected no change from the status quo, this announcement shocked everyone. We hope for his quick recovery and return to doing the job he does so well.

10) Line Blurs between "Netbooks" and Notebooks/Laptops

My prediction stated that we would start seeing new models fill in the gap between the low-end netbooks and traditional (i.e., full-featured, more powerful, and more expensive) subnotes. At CES, there were a variety of netbooks announced. While most played the familiar tune of 1.6GHz Atom processor, 1GB of RAM, a hard drive, and an 8-10" screen running 1024x600, there were a couple of standouts. The most discussed was the Sony Vaio P, a 1.4-lb netbook (even though they don't want you to call it that) that rocks a 1600x768 screen and runs Vista (albeit slowly). At a price point of $900 (for the low-end unit), it clearly is aimed at the gap between typical netbooks and upscale ultraportables. Another, more obscure one that fills this gap is the Olidata Conte, a very capable machine that, when it comes to market, may cost around $1,000.

Update (1/25/09): Apparently, AMD (via Engadget) agrees with me; CEO Dirk Meyer said in an earnings call that "the distinction between what is a netbook and what is a laptop is going to go away...there will be a continuum of price points and form factors." Good to know the C-suite is listening to me. ;-)

If you're just as curious as I was how all the press coverage of Palm's Pre / webOS launch was so overwhelmingly positive, watch the entire presentation on Palm's website and you'll soon see why everyone loved it.

Today at CES 2009 in Las Vegas, Palm launched their new mobile operating system, webOS, and promised the first device running webOS, the "Pre" smartphone, will be available on Sprint sometime in the first half of 2009. Exact timing depends at least partly on FCC and carrier certification, but you can bet Sprint will be eager to get this thing into its stores.

Some key features of the new webOS, according to Palm's presentation:
• Apps can developed using just CSS, HTML, and/or JavaScript
• Multi-tasking
• Internet-centric, integrated throughout all functions (e.g., search)
• Synergy technology combines contacts from online accounts (e.g., Facebook, Gmail) and local applications (e.g., Outlook), aggregates and syncs them on the phone, and eliminates duplicates
• All-new multi-instance web browser (buh-bye, Blazer)
• A notifications bar
• Integrated SMS and IM (via Synergy)

The Pre smartphone lists some impressive hardware specs:
• 320x480 HVGA multi-touch screen
• Slide-out QWERTY keyboard
• Rollerball for one-handed input
• 802.11b/g Wi-Fi
• Bluetooth with A2DP wireless audio
• 8GB of internal flash memory (can act as USB host)
• Texas Instruments' latest OMAP processor
• GPS
• EV-DO Rev. A
• Full-sized 3.5mm headphone jack
• 3MP camera with flash
• Removable battery (take that, Apple!)

And to just round out the wow factor, the Pre will come with be compatible with an optional wireless charger. Yes, wireless charger. You won't "plug in" the Pre, you'll just sit it on the Touchstone charging base and, through the magic of inductive power transmission, the phone will be recharged.

All in all, a very impressive new offering for Palm. If they can execute on this and get it into Sprint's stores quickly, they'll be well-positioned for a comeback.

Here's the full press release.

Once again, here are GearBits' prognostications for the coming year. If you're interested, check out how our predictions for 2008 panned out, or previous years' predictions.

1) Microsoft Launches Windows 7 to Fanfare, Skepticism
Microsoft's two pillars of financial solvency -- Windows and Office -- have been standing on shaky ground recently. Office 2007 was a decent hit, despite it not offering much new and causing significant backward compatibility issues. But Windows Vista, on the other hand, has been an unmitigated disaster. Microsoft even had to resort to tricking users into liking Vista (Mojave, anyone?), it had developed such a bad reputation. Windows 7 will be launched late in 2009 to a general consensus of "it's better," but will not be the "wow" that Microsoft needs to regain the market share it has recently ceded to Apple. But maybe that's a good thing...having strong competitors is usually a good thing for consumer markets.

2) Blockbuster Declares Bankruptcy
This may be a bit "out there," but I see exceedingly tough times at Blockbuster. And this isn't vindictiveness...I've been a reasonably happy Blockbuster.com customer for several years, now. I just think that, given the state of its business (poor), the weakness in the economy (near-critical), the nature of its service (luxury), and the rapidity with which that industry is transforming, I think Blockbuster will file for bankruptcy protection to get out of some of its debt, sell off some property (store locations that aren't faring well), and reinvest that into developing newer and more attractive services. So, they aren't going away...yet.

3) Palm Launches New OS to Fanfare, Skepticism
We've all heard the rumors that Palm will be launching "Nova," its replacement for the ancient Palm OS, at CES 2009 in a few days. I'm pretty sure that's going to happen. I'm also pretty sure that Palm will have at least one new device, if not several, running the new OS available by the end of June. While launching phones can take a while, given the carriers' lengthy testing requirements, launching a PDA doesn't, so Palm could certainly come out with two (or more) non-phone PDAs running Nova pretty quickly. And it needs to...the TX is older than my grandmother (at least in technology years). Generally, I predict there will be more nice things said about Nova, and the new devices, than critical, and it will stack up fairly competitively with Android and WM 6.5. What I do not have a lot of faith in is Palm's ability to develop and deliver the ecology of services (e.g., app stores) that customers are now expecting their smartphones to be integrated into. Time will tell on that front.

4) Blu-Ray Players Hit $99
During 2009, I think we'll see a raft of Korean and Taiwanese off-brand manufacturers launch budget Blu-Ray players. Just like the 2008 holiday sales saw BD players hit $149 in some stores, 2009 holiday sales will see them hit $99...if not sooner.

5) Apple Launches a Tablet to Fanfare
This has been a persistent rumor for years, but I think 2009 will see it actually happen. Why? A few reasons. First, Apple is looking to multi-touch as a key differentiator in its product lines, and having a full-screen, large-display MT device would make total sense. Second, it fits perfectly with the needs of the "creative class," Apple's core customer base. And third, it fills out a hole in their mobile product line that netbooks and other devices not running OS X fill nicely, and that's not a good thing for Apple. So, the technology is ready, the market is willing...and now I think Apple will be able to meet the demand.

6) Consolidation in the Entertainment Industry
2009 will be a strange year on a lot of dimensions. Not only will the stock market be hard to predict, there will be a lot of odd relationships come out of the mess. One industry that is still poised to make things happen is the entertainment industry, where I expect we'll see larger firms (e.g., major movie studios) start to acquire smaller, but very successful, examples from the newer media (e.g., game producers). A good example of the type of transaction I'm imagining would be Vivendi acquiring Ubisoft. I think Time Warner would love to swallow up Electronic Arts, but that might be a bit too big a bite unless something untoward happens to EA's stock price over the next year.

7) Steve Jobs Announces Transition to New Role
I think concerns over Jobs' health have more merit than most of us want to admit. In 2009, I expect him to announce that he's transitioning into a different role than President and CEO of Apple (and CEO of Pixar). Something that keeps him out of the spotlight while he deals with his health issues will be valuable to keep Apple's stock price up and customer base intact. The move towards reducing his presence in near-term product launches is consistent with this strategy. But, he's far from gone...his influence will still be felt behind the scenes, but we'll see less of him in his traditional role as Apple poster boy.

8) Facebook Membership Growth Flattens; Twitter Surges
Signs are pointing towards Facebook's popularity beginning to peak. Just as with everything social, when moms and dads begin to frequent the coffee shop, the kids need a new place to hang out. Facebook currently has almost 40 million members in the US. While that number has been skyrocketing since it opened up membership to anyone in September 2006, I think 2009 will see a marked deceleration in its growth. The loss of perceived exclusivity and the hassle of the relatively unprotected app space will combine to make it less appealing to many long-time users and new prospects will find fewer people urging them to get on board. Twitter, however, will see continued growth as it continues to tweak and adapt its environment to meet its core users' needs.

9) App Stores Dominate Mobile Software Delivery
iPhone's app store, Android's market...these types of bazaars, managed by the sponsors/manufacturers of the mobile operating systems, are coming to be the dominant mode for software distribution to mobile users. It marks a significant break from the traditional model, where mobile developers could sell software from their own sites, through 3rd party aggregators, and through carriers. This new approach is more streamlined, making it easier for users, but also more controlled, which can make it harder to accommodate large and complex ecosystems. The fact that each of the existing app stores serves a relatively small market is why we haven't seen these problems emerge to a point where they start driving users away. 2009 will see continued movement towards these controlled markets and away from the free-form/multi-channel models that previous mobile generations (e.g., Palm OS, Windows Mobile) relied on.

10) Line Blurs between "Netbooks" and Notebooks/Laptops
Netbooks are currently a fairly homogeneous, and well-defined, niche of laptop computers. Most of them have an Intel Atom processor, a screen from 8.9" to 10" in size, no optical drive, weigh between 2.2 and 3 lbs, and cost $300-$500. There's a big gap in pricing then between these netbooks and the subnotebooks/ultraportables that often have slightly larger screens, way more RAM and processing power, and cost $1,500 or more. To paraphrase the old adage, markets abhor a vacuum, so I expect we'll start seeing all manner of new small notebooks come into the market in this $500-$1000 range sporting screens in the 9"-12" range with anything from 512MB to 2GB of RAM, a variety of operating systems (XP and Linux will continue to be most popular), and a range of processing and display capabilities. Not everyone needs to play Crysis on their notebook, but not everyone can get by with a 1024x600 screen and do everything inside their browser.

So, there you have it...GearBits' predictions for 2009. Some are probably pretty safe bets, and some are bound to be wrong. What do you think will happen?

Each year, we at GearBits post some predictions for the coming year. And then, in the interest of honesty, fairness, and self-deprecation, we take a look back to see how we did. Each of our predictions for 2008 are listed below, along with an update on what actually happened.

1) Blu-Ray Wins the Format War
Yep, I'm going to pick a winner and it's going to be Blu-Ray. The one-two punch of Warner Brothers's move to Blu-Ray exclusivity (from its Switzerland-like neutrality of supporting both formats) later in 2008 and Apple's announcement that BD will be the only HD format available in its products will cement HD DVD's demise. And none too soon. I don't really care which wins...just make it snappy so that prices on players and media can plummet, thanks.

As of now, the end of 2008, it seems like forever since Blu-Ray trounced HD DVD in the format war. But back in early January, it was anyone's guess. But then, on February 18th, Toshiba officially threw in the towel. Interestingly, the Warner Bros. move I thought would happen eventually was actually announced the day after I posted my predictions. Of course, Apple hasn't yet released any products with any form of HD optical drive, so that bit wasn't exactly spot on. And I'm still waiting for my $99 Blu-Ray player. But, overall, this prediction looks pretty solid.

2) Google's Android Shakes Up Phone Industry
For a while now, the cellphone industry has been fairly static. A few smartphone and mobile OS makers have generally tussled for market share, but the overall industry has been pretty evolutionary. Google's entry will prove to be a watershed moment, with open source finally making a big impact in the handheld space (and no, I don't consider the Zaurus to be a big deal...sorry). Actual handsets running Android will be announced, if not available, before the end of 2008.

Depending on your threshold for "shaking up" the phone industry, I think most people would agree that Android made quite a splash in 2008 when the HTC G1 was launched on T-Mobile in the US on September 23rd. And we've already heard of around a dozen hardware makers signed on to release Android handsets. While handset sales still pale in comparison to the iPhone, 2009 looks like it just might be the year of the Android.

3) Palm Supports Android
This is more of a hope than an actual prediction, as I just don't know whether the egos at Palm will let the company do the right thing and admit that their next-generation OS (which has been under development since 2004!) will be a viable contender against Android (which has essentially the same technical details but scads more developer support). But, if cooler, more rational heads prevail at Palm, they'll announce that they're plans will be to produce at least one Android-based product (probably to come out sometime in 2012 :-/ ).

Ouch...I couldn't have been more wrong. While I still think Palm would have been smart to advance their product refurbishment by a full year (maybe more) by going with Android instead of continuing to pursue Nova, the company stuck to its original, go-it-alone plans. We'll see how well that pans out in 2009.

4) Microsoft's HD Photo Replacement for JPEG Image Standard Goes Nowhere
I'm not saying it's a bad idea technically; I'm just saying that JPEG is so entrenched now that replacing it would be about as reasonable a thing to try as would be replacing MP3 with any of the multitudes of better formats. JPEG, like MP3, isn't great, but it's adequate (at least for consumers) and ubiquitous. We'll still be saving all our photos in JPG (and maybe RAW) at the end of 2008...and likely long after that.

JPEG XR, the official name of Microsoft's HD Photo format, has generated essentially zero traction in the camera industry. Part of that is Microsoft's less-than-swift transition of JPEG XR into its quasi-open licensing portfolio, a move that will have to happen for camera makers and developers to trust that they won't be bitten by huge licensing fees in the future if they move their products away from RAW to JPEG XR.

5) Subnotes Will Explode in Availability (and Maybe Popularity)
I've always been a fan of tiny, sub-3-pound laptops, but I think 2008 will see a huge number of these clamshell devices come out of every corner of the consumer electronics space. The Asus EeePC and the OLPC XO Laptop are two examples. While Microsoft had a good idea in its UMPC (Ultra-Mobile PC) concept, the hardware was just never executed all that well. Frankly, I think a 7" touchscreen for Windows is just too difficult. But, going with the traditional clamshell design and using cheaper and/or smaller technologies (e.g., flash memory instead of a HDD) will bring us a raft of interesting (and some good) designs at <$500 price points. Bring 'em on! And I think we'll start to see a lot more people toting these things along that traditionally avoided laptops for whatever reason (cost, weight, etc.).

Bingo. If the shelves at Best Buy and Circuit City are any indication, these "netbooks" (the now-favored term...at least by everyone except Psion) have multiplied faster than Tribbles on Cialis. One glance at the huuuge list of netbooks over at small-notebooks.com is enough evidence to suggest that this prediction was spot on.

6) The GPS War Heats Up
TomTom, Nokia, and Garmin will exchange hostile fire over the GPS market due to convuluted agreements regarding mapping data as well as market-share for hardware. Products will continue to decline in price and improve in functionality, and >50% of cellphones will have some form of GPS functionality available on them. I guess that's two predictions in one...oh well.

I'm going to give myself this one. While we haven't heard that much more about the complex licensing agreements involving the big three, you need only walk through a Staples, Radio Shack, or Target to see a vast assortment of portable GPS units now available for under $150, most even having text-to-speech and other advanced functions. That's in direct comparison to late last year, when it was difficult to find a decent unit for under $300.

7) DRM Hits Choppy Water
2007 saw some movement away from DRM (digital rights management), especially in the music industry, but I expect we'll see similar initiatives in all areas of media. DRM has been proven again and again to be little more than an expensive technological boondoggle, and the leading innovators at the consumer media interface (e.g., Apple, Amazon, and Google) will make some headway into reversing the trend of more encumbrance for our media. The RIAA and MPAA will continue to fight it...they know how to do nothing else...but economic results will start to demonstrate that DRM actually hurts profitability.

Nope...we didn't hear much consistent with my prediction. While some markets moved towards offering DRM-free downloads, most are still heavily laden. And the RIAA actually reversed its strategy and is now no longer suing everyone and their mother for alleged downloading. So that's two different ways I was off on this one. Just goes to show that there's no telling what the content owners are thinking.

8) Major Tech Stocks End 2008 Up Significantly
These are bound to be wrong, but what the heck...nobody pays me for stock tips. I think Apple will end 2008 at 235, Google will be at 960, and Microsoft will finish the year at 50. As for other stocks, iRobot will end up at either 46 or 12 (can you tell I'm a cynical shareholder?), IBM will show tepid growth to 112, and RIM, hurt by the continued weak US dollar and facing increasing competition, will struggle to match its 1-year high of 127.

Uh, no. While I doubt many saw the massive downturn in stocks coming, tech stocks are decidedly not even slightly better off than most. Let's see how my specific price predictions held up:
  • Apple (AAPL): Predicted = 235; Actual = 86.29
  • Google (GOOG): Predicted = 960; Actual = 303.11
  • Microsoft (MSFT): Predicted = 50; Actual = 19.34
  • iRobot (IRBT): Predicted = 46 or 12; Actual = 8.95
  • IBM (IBM): Predicted = 112; Actual = 83.55
  • Research in Motion (RIMM): Predicted = 127; Actual = 38.77
In summary, do not ask me to manage your stock portfolio...you would be better served by setting your money on fire, as then you could at least stay warm for a while.

9) I Buy a New Laptop and Am Disappointed
My Panasonic CF-W2 is now three-and-a-half-years-old and I'm starting to cringe every time I turn it on (my luck with hard drives makes me skeptical of many living past their 4th birthday). I've been looking at possible replacements (e.g., Toshiba R500, Panasonic W7, maybe the Lenovo IdeaPad U110 or the rumored Apple subnote) and so far every single one has some significant trade-offs. So, I expect I'll get one and it will turn out to be not significantly better than my aging Toughbook. You'd think in nearly four years that two grand would buy something markedly superior. We'll see...

Unfortunately, I was right on this. The Fujitsu LifeBook P8010 I ended up purchasing in February is a good laptop...don't get me wrong. It's just not a heads-and-shoulders better laptop than my ToughBook was, and that's what I was expecting given the nearly 4 years newer technology and the $2500 it cost. And, given that I've already had to send it in for a repair (the power button broke off), I'm guessing the durability won't even come close to that of the Panasonic (which I still use regularly around the house).

10) Major Changes in Automotive Industry Announced
While the car business makes actual change only very slowly, we'll see some huge announcements in 2008 that will fundamentally change the future of that industry. Things like record oil prices, an increasing attention to sustainable/green technology, and significant ownership changes will substantially change the competitive landscape. Make no mistake; Toyota will continue its ascent and eclipse GM as #1 car-maker in the world. But, we will see several major announcements that will start affecting actual consumers in 2009 and beyond.

While I didn't get the stock predictions exactly right (OK, not even close), I think it's safe to say that the US automotive industry has been shaken up with major changes during 2008. We saw record oil prices (check!), more attention to green tech (check!), and the bottom dropping out of US consumption didn't leave them anywhere to go except to the Congress for help. And Toyota did indeed become the biggest carmaker in the world in 2008, just as predicted. Let's hope the Volt truly is something special...for all our sakes.

So, there you have it: our final score is 7 winners and 3 losers. I'll take it. :-)

In a couple of days, I'll be posting GearBits' predictions for 2009, so make sure you come back and check those out, m'kay?

Another medical professional has come out publicly warning those who will listen that cellphones may cause cancer. Or they may not. They're not sure, but why risk it, right?

"I don't know that cell phones are dangerous. But I don't know that they are safe."
   -- Devra Lee Davis, Director of the University of Pittsburgh Center for Environmental Oncology

Next week, the University of Pittsburgh will be issuing warnings about the possible cancer-causing side effects of:
• Cheddar cheese
• Paperclips
• Lingering too long in the grocery's produce aisle
• Sudoku
• Your aunt's meatloaf (actually, that's probably true), and
• Reading medical news stories late at night

Check out the full article (CNN.com)

I opened up my Sprint PCS bill to find an $18 charge described as "Handset upgrade fee." Wha?

Sure, last month, a few weeks after our 2-year indentured servitude contract with the carrier ended (we're now month-to-month), my wife needed a new phone. We got her a new Centro and paid full price for it because I didn't want to go back under contract. But nobody said anything about a fee just for buying a new phone.

So I called up Sprint customer service this morning and, after discussing it with both the rep and her manager, they basically told me there was nothing they could do about it (at which point I asked why they were called "customer service") and that I'd have to go back to the store to argue about the charge.

Who in their right minds would insult a customer who isn't under an active contract (i.e., who is free to leave for a competitor at the drop of a hat) by asking for an extra $18 on top of the $300 he just spent in your store, especially given that he's already paying you nearly $100 a month? And why, oh why, would you trust some random clerk in some random store to salvage what is a very profitable, long-term relationship when the customer has already taken the time to call your service department and talk to you?

It all clearly reminded me why Sprint is nearly universally loathed by its customers and former customers alike.

I then dragged myself into the local Sprint store, girding for yet another fruitless battle over $18. At this point, it wasn't so much the money as it was the principle. Surprisingly, after a 30-second explanation, the store rep said, "Oh, no, that's a mistake...I'll take it right off." And that was that. Awesome.

So, while all's well that ends well, this little experience reminded me quite clearly why I didn't renew my contract with Sprint. Any company who makes such poor decisions about how it manages its customer relationships does not adequately desire, or deserve, my patronage. When the new Android devices, or whatever else that satisfies my requirements, come out, I'll be ready, and eager, to switch carriers as needed.

I've been remiss on posting, so I thought I'd assemble a whole mess of opinions in one place. Over the past several weeks or so, I've come to appreciate some things/companies and have come to be disappointed in others. So, here's a quick run-down:

HOT

• Shutterfly - always gets me great-looking prints/books in a timely manner at low prices.
  
• Google - just keeps rolling out the innovative, useful, and well-designed web apps
  
• Subaru - they just make terrific cars...durable, high-performing, and affordable
  
• Amazon.com - with reasonably good, if not great, prices, excellent customer service, and a stellar website, what's not to like?
  
• Subnotes - The sudden rash of low-power, low-weight, cheap laptops coming out (which I predicted would happen back at the beginning of the year) is a joy to behold...portable computing for everyone!
  
• NPR - Always informative, enjoyable, and worth supporting.
  
• Logitech Cordless Presenter - Have had it for two years now, am still on the first set of AAA batteries, it has taken tons of abuse, and it still works perfectly. Amazing!
  
• Private Electric Car Companies - It's as if we're on the cusp of another time like the 1920's, when every town seemed to have a local car manufacturer, except now they're all electric, hybrid, or alterna-fuel vehicles (a very good thing).

NOT

• Archos - if my 605 Wi-Fi completely hangs on me one more time, I swear I'm going to chuck it off an overpass (I'll post more about this later)
  
• Palm - if my Treo 700p resets on me one more time, I swear I'm going to chuck...aw, who am I kidding? It'll probably reset before I finish this post. C'mon Android...fill this void in my gadget-hoarding soul, will you?
  
• Megalomaniacal Corporate IT Departments - I hope the day comes soon when we can definitively show that the TCO actually improves when you let corporate tech users select their own personal devices.
  
• Flash memory format proliferation - I mean, seriously, do we really need SD, MiniSD, and MicroSD? It's getting as bad as the dang Memory Stick (and that's saying something).
  
• Download-only music stores - I may be in the minority, but I just don't like the DRM associated with most online music stores. And even without the DRM, the cost seems too much if I'm not getting permanent physical media, liner notes/art, etc. Call me old school if you like...go ahead, it only hurts a little.
  
• Intel's Marketing department - Seriously, guys, could you make keeping track of your product lines any more difficult and confusing?
  
• Getting older - I am no longer the kid I still think of myself as being.
  

So what are your Hot and Not?

I'm heartened to see stories like this: Windows Mobile to get pumped up on Nvidia (CNET). I've tried Windows Mobile many times and every time two things send me running as fast as I can away from the platform:

1) The god-awful user interface

2) The reliance of WM on Outlook

While the second problem probably won't go away any time soon -- Microsoft likes to link its products even when its customers don't necessarily want them linked -- the first problem will probably be greatly mitigated if we can get high-end graphics to speed up and beautify the UI.

I'm sure, however, that Windows Mobile won't be the only game in town with high-powered graphics hardware on board. Google's Android seems to be designed with that type of experience clearly in mind. This, plus the "open network" push we're seeing, means that the next 12-18 months should be a very interesting time in the smartphone space.

"...I began to wonder about the phenomenon of text messaging as a whole. Sometimes it seems that it would make more sense to call or send an email, but that crap is for old people."

I think the biggest drawback I see to texting is the whole temporal retention issue. I rely extensively on my ability to search through my emails, both professional and personal, sometimes going back years to look up something. In contrast, I don't know anyone who saves their text messages for even more than a few months. I asked a classful of college seniors how long they kept text messages on their phones. Less than 10% keep them longer than a week!

Do I txt? Yep, everyday, but I still use email a lot more. I'm not going to pull the "age = wisdom" card and claim that "old people" (per the Gizmodo story) use email more because they're wiser (I'm not even sure I'd be considered "old"), but my perception is that email offers a lot of advantages that texting just can't match right now.

Apple's iPhone and MacBook Air have come to represent cutting-edge, state-of-the-art consumer electronics. We're approaching the iPhone's first birthday and Wired magazine is still calling it "handset of the moment -- maybe even the next few moments."

And the MacBook Air was popular enough last month to single-handedly account for 20% of Apple's notebook computer sales. Any way you slice it, that's impressive.

So what is it that keeps me from getting excited about these products?

I don't think I'm biased for or against Apple. We have a Mac Mini in the house and I'm always happy to see strong competitors in the personal computing space. So I don't think it's any sort of systematic unwillingness to accept Apple's products.

I'd like to think it's the technology. Sure, the iPhone and the MBA are pretty. The iPhone has a user interface that's somewhat innovative, and the Air is very, very svelte. But beyond that, I see more sacrifices than benefits.

The iPhone is a keyboardless EDGE handset with no expansion card slot. To me, that's three strikes right there. I feel like I need a real keyboard; I use the stink out of my Treo's EVDO connection and would dread going back to EDGE speeds; and, as far as I'm concerned, SD cards are the new floppy disk (i.e., ubiquitous). And then there's the issue of the non-user-replaceable battery. Ugh.

Similarly, the MacBook Air is rife with trade-offs: you don't get a removable battery, internal optical drive, Ethernet port, or VGA output (all things I rely on pretty frequently). Yes, it's light, but not markedly more so than many other laptops (for one, my 12.1" Fujitsu subnote weighs less). And don't get me started on the decision to hamstring it by including just a single USB port!

So, is it me? Am I somehow missing the real benefit of these devices? I'll admit, I've always been a function-over-form kinda guy, so is it that obsession with features that is blinding me to the design, or some other source of value entirely?

Or, am I more normal than I think, and it's it just that the media and a significant part of the digerati who write about this stuff have different utility functions than most of the rest of us?

Over two years ago, I initiated a general plea for a gPhone. Apparently, PalmSolo has witnessed the answer to my request at MWC08.

Check out his photos and video of HTC's gPhone, an Android test mule, in action (via ZD Net)

I'm fairly certain that my 700p will be my last Treo and that something running Android will be my next smartphone. Now if I can just go another 8-9 months...

As has become customary around the changing of the calendar, here are GearBits' official predictions for 2008.

1) Blu-Ray Wins the Format War
Yep, I'm going to pick a winner and it's going to be Blu-Ray. The one-two punch of Warner Brothers's move to Blu-Ray exclusivity (from its Switzerland-like neutrality of supporting both formats) later in 2008 and Apple's announcement that BD will be the only HD format available in its products will cement HD DVD's demise. And none too soon. I don't really care which wins...just make it snappy so that prices on players and media can plummet, thanks.

2) Google's Android Shakes Up Phone Industry
For a while now, the cellphone industry has been fairly static. A few smartphone and mobile OS makers have generally tussled for market share, but the overall industry has been pretty evolutionary. Google's entry will prove to be a watershed moment, with open source finally making a big impact in the handheld space (and no, I don't consider the Zaurus to be a big deal...sorry). Actual handsets running Android will be announced, if not available, before the end of 2008.

3) Palm Supports Android
This is more of a hope than an actual prediction, as I just don't know whether the egos at Palm will let the company do the right thing and admit that their next-generation OS (which has been under development since 2004!) will be a viable contender against Android (which has essentially the same technical details but scads more developer support). But, if cooler, more rational heads prevail at Palm, they'll announce that they're plans will be to produce at least one Android-based product (probably to come out sometime in 2012 :-/ ).

4) Microsoft's HD Photo Replacement for JPEG Image Standard Goes Nowhere
I'm not saying it's a bad idea technically; I'm just saying that JPEG is so entrenched now that replacing it would be about as reasonable a thing to try as would be replacing MP3 with any of the multitudes of better formats. JPEG, like MP3, isn't great, but it's adequate (at least for consumers) and ubiquitous. We'll still be saving all our photos in JPG (and maybe RAW) at the end of 2008...and likely long after that.

5) Subnotes Will Explode in Availability (and Maybe Popularity)
I've always been a fan of tiny, sub-3-pound laptops, but I think 2008 will see a huge number of these clamshell devices come out of every corner of the consumer electronics space. The Asus EeePC and the OLPC XO Laptop are two examples. While Microsoft had a good idea in its UMPC (Ultra-Mobile PC) concept, the hardware was just never executed all that well. Frankly, I think a 7" touchscreen for Windows is just too difficult. But, going with the traditional clamshell design and using cheaper and/or smaller technologies (e.g., flash memory instead of a HDD) will bring us a raft of interesting (and some good) designs at <$500 price points. Bring 'em on! And I think we'll start to see a lot more people toting these things along that traditionally avoided laptops for whatever reason (cost, weight, etc.).

6) The GPS War Heats Up
TomTom, Nokia, and Garmin will exchange hostile fire over the GPS market due to convuluted agreements regarding mapping data as well as market-share for hardware. Products will continue to decline in price and improve in functionality, and >50% of cellphones will have some form of GPS functionality available on them. I guess that's two predictions in one...oh well.

7) DRM Hits Choppy Water
2007 saw some movement away from DRM (digital rights management), especially in the music industry, but I expect we'll see similar initiatives in all areas of media. DRM has been proven again and again to be little more than an expensive technological boondoggle, and the leading innovators at the consumer media interface (e.g., Apple, Amazon, and Google) will make some headway into reversing the trend of more encumbrance for our media. The RIAA and MPAA will continue to fight it...they know how to do nothing else...but economic results will start to demonstrate that DRM actually hurts profitability.

8) Major Tech Stocks End 2008 Up Significantly
These are bound to be wrong, but what the heck...nobody pays me for stock tips. I think Apple will end 2008 at 235, Google will be at 960, and Microsoft will finish the year at 50. As for other stocks, iRobot will end up at either 46 or 12 (can you tell I'm a cynical shareholder?), IBM will show tepid growth to 112, and RIM, hurt by the continued weak US dollar and facing increasing competition, will struggle to match its 1-year high of 127.

9) I Buy a New Laptop and Am Disappointed
My Panasonic CF-W2 is now three-and-a-half-years-old and I'm starting to cringe every time I turn it on (my luck with hard drives makes me skeptical of many living past their 4th birthday). I've been looking at possible replacements (e.g., Toshiba R500, Panasonic W7, maybe the Lenovo IdeaPad U110 or the rumored Apple subnote) and so far every single one has some significant trade-offs. So, I expect I'll get one and it will turn out to be not significantly better than my aging Toughbook. You'd think in nearly four years that two grand would buy something markedly superior. We'll see...

10) Major Changes in Automotive Industry Announced
While the car business makes actual change only very slowly, we'll see some huge announcements in 2008 that will fundamentally change the future of that industry. Things like record oil prices, an increasing attention to sustainable/green technology, and significant ownership changes will substantially change the competitive landscape. Make no mistake; Toyota will continue its ascent and eclipse GM as #1 car-maker in the world. But, we will see several major announcements that will start affecting actual consumers in 2009 and beyond.

So, I'll check back in about 12 months to see how I fared. In the meantime, what do you think will happen?

	Palm Treo 700p	Apple iPhone
Display	2.5" 320x320-pixel Touchscreen 180 ppi	3.5" 320x480 Multi-Touchscreen 160 ppi
Cellular	CDMA with EvDO (3G)	GSM with EDGE (2.5G)
Wi-Fi	None	802.11b/g
Text Input	QWERTY Keyboard	On-screen Keyboard
Onboard Memory	128 MB	4 or 8 GB
Expansion Slot	Secure Digital (SDHC) (up to 8 GB)	None
Battery	Removable 4.5 hrs talk time 300 hrs standby	Non-replaceable 8 hrs talk time 250 hrs standby
Weight	6.4 ounces	4.8 ounces
Thickness	.9 inches	.46 inches
Multi-Media Messaging (MMS)	Yes	No
Stylus Included	Yes	No
Camera	1.3 Megapixels	2.0 Megapixels
Video Capture	352 x 288 @ 15fps	None
Screen Auto-rotation	No (not necessary)	Yes
My impressions of the two devices:
Overall UI Speed	Fast to Pokey	Very Fast to Fast
One-Handed Use	Excellent to Good	Good to Poor
Browser	Good (Blazer)	Excellent (Safari)
Text Entry	Excellent	Fair (No highlighting or cut/copy/paste)
Third-Party Support	Excellent (Thousands of apps)	Poor (Other than browser applets, Apple is sole provider)
Customizability	Excellent	Fair
Fun to Use	Good	Very Good

While the table doesn't say it in so many words, my impression so far is that the Treo 700p and the iPhone do nearly all the same things, but in very different ways. With its dedicated keyboard and strong text-editing functionality, the 700p is much more of a productivity-centric communication device. In contrast, the iPhone does amazing things with audio/video/photo playback, so it is more of a media/entertainment-centric device.

However, that distinction is far from absolute. The Treo can handle audio and video playback in more formats than can the iPhone, and it also has the 3G chops to stream both audio and video over its cellular connection, so it's more flexible in those regards. But, the iPhone has some productivity tricks up its sleeve, such as its ability to multitask (e.g., pull down email in the background) and the excellent Safari browser (which emulates a desktop browser's capabilities fairly closely).

The iPhone's biggest new innovation -- the multi-touch screen -- seems like it could be something incredibly powerful. The current device seems to underutilize this feature, as it's useful only in rare situations (e.g., resizing/zooming a photo). Moreover, multi-touch inherently requires two-handed use, so it's not something someone is going to make use of all the time. But, if future software enhancements can really make strong use of this feature, then we may look back on this launch as actually meriting all the hype.

So, while I have no desire to get an iPhone for my own use, I'm glad the iPhone is out. Innovation pushes all players in the market to bring us consumers their best products, so I look forward to seeing how Palm, Nokia, HTC, Motorola, and the rest respond to Apple's new phone.

Last month, I became fed up with the increasingly disgusting state of my LCD screens. Both my laptop and my two LCD desktop panels at work were just rife with dust, lint, and macroscopic unmentionables. Just gross.

So, I thought I'd grab a screen cleaner and wipe them off. Turns out that's not as easy as one might imagine. Most everyday cleaners you find in grocery stores have alcohol, ammonia and/or other chemicals in them that do not play nicely with the plastics and coatings involved in LCD and other portable electronic displays.

So, I did what any conscientious tech blogger would do: I ordered three of the more commonly recommended cleaners to do a comparison test. KlearScreen, Purosol, and Mirachem Optix were all purchased from online retailer Photodon (who provided no monetary or other support for this test other than selling me all the cleaners at their standard price). I also purchased a bottle of the Photodon house brand LCD cleaner just to see how it stacked up. I also bought a brand new microfiber cloth to use in the testing.

Read on for details on the four candidates and the results of my month-long test for performance, endurance, and overall value.

Today, Palm announced its new Foleo smartphone companion (shown, next to the Treo). You can learn about it at the Palm website and read some first impressions here, here, and here.

I'm going to reserve judgment on the Foleo until I get some hands-on time with it (you hear that, Palm? Bump me up a few spots on the review unit list, will ya?). It has some interesting points, but I'll admit to being skeptical that the market for this device exceeds a few thousand people.

But it did get me thinking just what would have been a better product (or products) to announce today that would have served a similar purpose (i.e., extending the usefulness of a smartphone like the Treo...or the iPhone)? Here are some ideas that I've seen proposed various places today:

1) Linux-Powered Tablet Treo -- Combine the radio and multimedia functions of a Treo with all the open-source goodness of a Linux kernel and a big touchscreen display.

2) Bluetooth Virtual Display -- Giving the user a better bigscreen view of her Treo's data while only adding a few ounces to her bag seems like an interesting idea. Just one question, though: How do you interact with the Treo if your eyes are blocked by the display?

3) Clamshell Treo -- Proposed by the many who wish the Treo's 2.5" square display was a shade larger yet still pocketable, a clamshell Treo could even have two displays (a la Nintendo's DS) for double the productivity.

4) A Universal Treo-Laptop Interface -- Some have suggested that what Palm really needs to offer is a piece of hardware that would connect a Treo to any PC's USB port and automatically broker data and Internet sharing between the two devices. Imagine a continuous "smart" syncing between the two devices so that the PC could be used as an interface to the Treo's contents, or vice versa.

What's your suggestion? What should Palm have released instead of the Foleo? Or do you think it really is a viable new product category?

Over the weekend on a work trip, the headset jack on my 700p started acting up and the unit was going to have to be replaced.

When I went to my local Sprint store Tuesday evening, they told me, sorry...I would have to go to a special Sprint store that had a technician in it. The nearest one was several miles away.

So, today, at 11:30am, I show up at the Sprint store. I wait 20 minutes just to talk to someone. I give him my phone to hand to the tech to verify that it was, indeed, a bad headset jack. 15 minutes later, the tech verifies that as the problem and says he can't fix it. No sweat, I say, since (a) it's still under Palm's 1-year warranty, and (b) I have the phone repair/replacement warranty on top of that. So, I expect them to hand me a replacement 700p.

Nope. Sales dude Jeff tells me that they have no Treo 700p's in stock and they have to get it from the warehouse, which takes 3-5 days. In the meantime, I will just have to use the wired headset whenever I want to make or receive a call or check my voicemail (which is the only way they'll alert me that my replacement phone is available).

However, I get back to my office today and call the store. I talk to sales dude Mike and ask if they have any 700p's in stock. He cheerily tells me that they have several 700p's in the store and to come on in and pick one up (they're open until 9pm!).

So, what's up, Sprint? I'm paying you nearly $100 a month plus a $6 per month replacement service fee just so you can make me wait an extra 3-5 days while you'll give a new customer my phone today? Sprint sucks.

It's really no wonder that a recent MSN-Zogby poll ranked Sprint as having the worst customer service across all industries. It's times like this that I really miss T-Mobile.

Update: I called Sprint's telephone support and they said they weren't sure why the store said what it did, but that I could go back to the store and ask to speak to the manager. Rather than driving clear up there again tonight, I called and was told that the phones in stock in the store were new phones and that they couldn't give out new phones for replacements (only refurbished models are available for existing customers). I asked the girl if she thought that giving better service to a potential Sprint customer (e.g., someone wanting to sign up for service and buy a 700p outright, who would be handed a new phone immediately) than a current Sprint customer (e.g., me) was the right thing to do. She said, "I'm not going to answer that." Yes, welcome to Sprint...ethics optional.

According to this CNN story, a 13-year-old was crowned National Texting Champion for typing in "Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious" (from 'Mary Poppins') on his phone in 15 seconds.

Just now, I was able to do the same on my Treo in just under 9 seconds. And I wasn't even trying especially hard to be fast, just accurate (I didn't want to have to do it over again).

I'm not saying this to brag, but merely to make a point: a numerical-keypad phone will never be considered a productivity-minded business communications tool until we no longer need to enter text via keys. It just won't do to have to type out lots of even short emails if you have to do so by hitting up to three keys just to get a single character. And let's not even consider adequate (let alone proper) punctuation.

As per tradition (OK, for at least the third time), here are my predictions for the upcoming year, 2007:

1) Apple's iPod continues PMP domination
Thought I'd start off with a safe one. Yep, I don't think too many would argue that the iPod is poised to remain the de facto standard in portable media players. Given that the #1 seller in Amazon's electronics category during the 2006 holiday season was the iPod by a significant margin, and given that accessories for all other PMPs combined amount to about 1/100th of what's available for the iPod, there's really no doubt that newcomers will have a hard time challenging the king, despite any technical advantages.

2) 802.11n gets ratified and gear floods to market
802.11n, the next generation of that family of wireless networking standards, has been forever in getting off the ground. 2007 should see its final certification, opening the gates to loads of networking hardware compliant to the new standard.

3) Film cameras all but disappear from electronics stores
While you'll still be able to find cheap disposables, it will become nearly impossible to find any mainstream electronics retailer selling more than one or two token models. $99 digital cameras from recognizable brands will become commonplace.

4) Nintendo tops Sony and Microsoft as gaming overlord
Not a big leap here, but Nintendo, through its Wii and DS lines, will lead all brands in game unit sales in 2007. Sony will retain the crown of technological leader (and work though its Blu-Ray production issues), and Microsoft will continue to play the spoiler in the industry.

5) TiVo is acquired
If this prediction was good enough to be wrong in 2006, then it's good enough for 2007 as well.

6) Google launches the GooglePhone
Google, in partnership with some handheld maker and/or carrier, will launch a branded QWERTY smartphone that natively runs its main offerings (e.g., Gmail, Google Docs, Google Maps, Google Talk, etc.). Maybe I'm predicting this purely out of desire -- I so want such a device -- but I do think it will happen eventually.

7) eBay sells Skype
You heard it here first. Or maybe you didn't. Either way, this is a long-shot prediction, but I think Meg Whitman is smart enough to realize that Skype is worth more to eBay when it's owned by somebody else.

8) Palm brings Jeff Hawkins back to reinvent Treo line
The current Treo line is getting a bit long in the tooth (not to mention the now-ancient Palm OS, which Palm just repurchased the permanent rights to) and its sales are likely getting pinched by slimmer, more aesthetically appealing (while not as functional, but a lot of people by phones based on looks...kind of like how they pick boy/girlfriends in college) offerings from Motorola and others. So, since Palm doesn't seem capable of designing anything anyone wants to buy on its own, the company will announce that Jeff Hawkins is coming back to help lead the development of the next-generation Treo. And many will ask, "What took you so long?"

9) HD-DVD and Blu-Ray persist; nobody cares
More devices will be available at cheaper prices, but sales of both players and media will continue to be tepid. Not only is renting becoming the dominant mode of DVD acquisition, but the current quality of standard dual-layer DVDs is perfectly adequate for 99% of the population. Maybe in a few years, the proliferating 1080p sets will drive people to want high-def movies, but it won't be as rapid an adoption rate as the original DVD was.

10) Robots become sentient, destroy all of humanity
On a related note, iRobot's stock price will double in 2007 as a result of strong sales and the announcement that a first-gen AI will take over as President and CEO.

Have a good year, everyone!

In two previous posts - Treo 650 SD Slot is teh Fastar (February, 2005) and SanDisk Extreme III Secure Digital SD Card (March, 2005) - I compared the speeds of four Secure Digital cards in three Palm OS devices.

Well, it's been 16 months and newer devices and higher capacity cards are now out, so I thought I'd run some more comparisons. This time, however, I'll be using the new Palm Treo 700p along with its venerable brothers, the 650 and 600.

The four SD cards being tested here are:

L to R: Adata 150X 4GB, SanDisk 133X Extreme III 1GB, SanDisk Ultra II 66X, SanDisk 512MB

Here are the results using VFSMark v1.1 (notice that the 4GB Adata card was not tested in the Treo 650 or 600 -- those devices do not come with support for FAT32 file systems required for 4GB cards):

I think a few conclusions can be made from these data. First, the SanDisk Extreme III is a very fast card. At a rated speed of 133X, it bested even the 150X Adata card overall.

Second, the added expense of their Ultra II line above and beyond the price of SanDisk's standard (blue) line of SD cards appears to be wasted if used in a Treo. There's just no appreciable bump in speed. Maybe on a PC -- didn't test that here, so can't generalize -- but not on a Treo.

Third, the 700p looks like it has faster access to SD cards than its predecessors, which is good news. Not only can it handle FAT32-formatted cards (up to 4GB), it reads faster than the 650 and 600 and writes much faster than the 600 (but about the same as the 650).

So, if you rely on card-intensive apps, you may want to consider the combination of a Treo 700p and a SanDisk Extreme III as a pricey, but effective, upgrade.

When I fly, I tend to try and notice what smartphone* devices people are toting along to the airport. I just got back from a 3-day work trip to California and here's my informal count on the way back (SJC --> DFW --> CVG):

RIM Blackberry: 19

Palm Treo (Palm OS): 16

Windows Mobile (all): 3

Nokia: 2

* Note: only devices with thumbboards are included (I don't consider anything lacking a QWERTY keyboard to be a true "smartphone")

Granted, these are totally my counts based only on what I saw people using or wearing, so anything stuffed in a bag or pocket was not included (obviously). But, I don't think those ratios are too outta whack with reality -- the market has pretty much decided, at least in the US, that it's Blackberries vs the Treo (and, as I didn't see a single Treo 700w, it's pretty much just Palm OS Treos at that).

eWeek: Treo 700w Outshone by 650

Summary: The Treo 700w, the first Palm handheld to run Microsoft's Windows Mobile operating system, combines the Treo's proven smart-phone design with a speedy new EvDO radio. The 700w's 240-by-240-pixel display is a step back from the excellent 320-by-320 display that graces its sibling, the Treo 650, but we found the 700w a strong smart-phone contender nevertheless.

Interesting write-up. Read more.

My wife just got a Treo 650 from work. The problem is she'll soon be expected to carry it around with her while at work, but she doesn't wear normal, everyday clothes. She's an anesthesiologist, so she's in scrubs 99% of the time. This poses a bit of a dilemma for toting the Treo around -- where do you put it and how do you attach it to yourself?

She's pretty small, so clipping it onto the waist of her scrub pants risks pulling them down (no lie). The Treo is significantly heavier than a pager (which it's replacing).

She has to bend down fairly often, so keeping it in the breast pocket wouldn't work -- it'll fall right out. She's considering clipping it into her breast pocket, which might work, but I don't see her enjoying that arrangement.

So, all you out there who've had to do the phone-tote whilst in scrubs, what was your solution? Lanyard? Belt-clip? Velcro? Garter holster?

So I familiarized myself with the Nokia N90 over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend (see Hands On - Nokia N90 Multimedia Smartphone for initial thoughts and photos). Being as this is the first Symbian Series 60 phone I've spent any real time with, the learning curve was a bit steeper than I expected. Also, given that I'm not as much of a "phone guy" as some folks (most of my phone use involves data rather than voice), I came into it with a lot of smartphone-esque expectations (e.g., I'm very used to a touchscreen and lots of hardware buttons, of which the N90 has neither). With that said, after the jump are some thoughts from my first few days of using the N90.

The nice UPS man just dropped off a Nokia N90 on my doorstep.

You remember the N90...it's the new GSM phone with the Carl Zeiss optics, 2MP camera, video capture straight to MPEG-4 at 352x288 resolution, two-way video calls, etc., etc.

While it's warming up (don't want to risk condensation damage) and the battery is charging, I thought I'd post a few shots of what it looks like sans power (next to my Treo 650 for size comparisons). It's amazingly small...thick, but elegant.

So far, me likey. More later after I get it operational.

Continue reading past the break for the photos!

This sounds like a decent deal: Sign up with one of Earthlink's 2-year voice+data plans (start at $69.90/month including unlimited monthly data) and get a Treo 650 for $199. More details here.

Caveat: I've no personal experience with Earthlink as a cellular provider, and I'm sure they're reselling minutes on somebody else's networks, but I thought I'd pass on the info about the cheap Treo 650.

Want a new phone and a way to help out survivors of Hurricane Katrina at the same time? Check out PhoneScoop's Hurricane Katrina Auction for all the details on the phones, rules, etc. Hurry...all auctions end at 1 pm Eastern time on Wednesday, September 14th.

One word: Whaaa??

That's what I said when I read over at Gizmodo that this device would cost $249 with a 2-year contract at Cingular.

OK, more words. Let me get this straight. You want me to pay $249 for an otherwise generic featurephone (camera, quad-band) with the only notable feature being that it holds fewer songs than a $30 512MB SD card? For the same price ($249 with contract), you can get a real smartphone (such as the Treo 650) that will hold 2GB worth of music (~500 songs), play movies, surf the web, get email, take pictures, etc. etc. etc.

Sure, some Apple fanatics will get this just because, but IMNSHO this device is overpriced by $100, if not more.

Handsets were supposed to be the razors so that wireless carriers (and now apparently online music providers) could sell them new and fresh content and services (i.e., razor blades). So now that Apple and Cingular are making it easier to get this content you bought from themn onto the device, they want you to pay $200 more than you would for a similarly equipped piece of hardware just for that convenience. I hope most people are smart enough to say "no thanks" (but then I'm usually disappointed when I rely on the general populace's cognitive ability).

Follow-up: Apparently, I'm not the only one to pooh-pooh the ROKR

In a press conference today, Steve Jobs announced the forthcoming Rokr phone, which enables iTunes download/playback of ~100 songs a la the Shuffle. Apple jointly developed the Rokr with Motorola.

T-Mobile has saved me some hassle by finally providing EDGE service to 90% of its coverage area. I had been considering switching to Cingular to make use of the higher-speed data connection (GPRS usually gets me 10-20 kbps on my Treo 650 while I see 80-120 kbps with EDGE), but now I don't have to.

Thanks, T-Mobile. Now about that North American HSDPA roll-out...

Sorry for the lapse...I was out of the country and I guess my co-authors have not much to say at the moment. Here are a few tidbits of recent note:

Treo 270 in for Repair
My wife's Treo 270 died while she was in Ireland this past week. Actually, just the screen and backlight died; the rest of it seems OK. Apparently, palmOne is charging me $179 for an advance exchange for this beast. Not a great deal, but not terribly bad, IMO.

Treo 600 Battery Life Redux
Like the idiot I am, I left my Treo 600 in my car when I left for my trip Thursday afternoon. I got back to my car around midnight last night -- that's about 4.5 days or 108 hours later -- fully expecting the unit to be deader than a doornail. Much to my surprise, it still had 36% charge left. I finally dropped the unit in the charger today at noon just out of habit; it still had 28% battery left. So, over the course of 5 full days (120 hours), the phone (a) remained in standby (phone on), (b) supported nighly back-ups of its RAM to SD card, and (c) was used for about 20 minutes worth of phone calls and about 15 minutes of PDA activity. Given that it probably could have gone 6 full days had I pushed it, I'm still very, very impressed by the Treo 600's battery life.

Eats, Shoots and Leaves
While on the flight from Dublin to O'Hare, I read Eats, Shoots & Leaves: The Zero Tolerance Approach to Punctuation by Lynne Truss. Fabulous read. I'm quite sure I still have solidly entrenched mispunctuation habits, but I'm trying hard to overcome them. The attractiveness of joining a militant punctuation society is such that if you see someone with a Sharpie correcting a sign offering "Half Price Drink's", that's quite possibly me.

Sony Puts Handhelds on Hiatus in US
Sony has suspended selling its Clie line of Palm OS-powered PDAs in the US until further notice. It seems likely that the rapid rise in popularity of palmOne's recent Zire and Tungsten models and the forthcoming release of the PlayStation Portable (PSP) both made Sony reconsider whether trying to sell PDAs in North America made much sense. Brighthand has a short article on the announcement -- feel free to engage in wild speculation at your leisure.

The Cellular Telecommunications and Internet Association (CTIA) has announced that it is putting together a directory which will contain 75% of the 163 million mobile phone numbers in the USA.

The CTIA is positioning the directory towards real estate agents and other mobile professionals who want people to be able to find their mobile numbers.

However, critics fear that publishing the directory will undermine privacy and open phones to a flood of unwanted calls. In addition, the numbers make it easy to deduce addresses of phones that receive e-mail since usually the number is the user name part of the e-mail address, opening users to e-mail abuse.

One major carrier, Verizon Wireless, has vowed to keep its 39 million subscribers out of the directory, calling the initiative misguided.

There are big numbers at stake. Consulting firm Zelos Group estimates that the directory could generate an estimated $3 billion in annual fees and additional minutes by 2009.

Since cell phones were introduced, mobile numbers have remained private because in the US, recipients of calls pay for air time, and so are reluctant to distribute numbers. Furthermore, 30% of users change carriers each year, making an accurate directory difficult to compile. That changed when the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) allowed the portability of mobile numbers.

I'm fascinated by how consumers categorize their technology. For example, what's the difference between a phone with PDA capabilities and a PDA with phone capabilities? Yet, for some reason, consumers make these distinctions. What's really troubling is that the consultants and pundits (e.g., Gartner) seem to have latched onto certain categories and are pitting one against the other as if it were an illegal dogfight...last one standing wins.

So, let's recap what can be observed out in the marketplace today. What features seem to drive name/image dominance for handheld and mobile devices?

1. Phone -- If a device can be used as a voice phone on a cellular network, it is generally first and foremost considered a phone. Some exceptions to this include the Pocket PC Phone Edition devices, which people generally regard as PDAs, and the Palm Tungsten W, which people generally regarded as a piece of crap. So, the phone feature seems to dominate all other features...generally.

2. Gaming -- Second behind phone is gaming. If a handheld has significant game-playing capabilities, but is not a phone, it will essentially be labeled a gaming device. An example of this is Nokia's n-Gage -- it's a crappy phone and a decent gaming device, yet people still refer to it as a phone. However, consider the Tapwave Zodiac. The Zodiac is considered a gaming handheld despite it having significant PDA capabilities. Were it to have phone functionality, I posit that folks would refer to it as a phone (a la the n-Gage).

3. PDA/PIM -- Personal Digital Assistant or Personal Information Management functionality seems to be third on the influential feature list. If a device has this, but is not a phone or a gaming device, it is generally considered a PDA. There are relatively few exceptions, with the iPod being the most (only?) noteworthy one. The iPod's PIM functionality is crude at best, so perhaps this isn't really even that much of an exception.

4a. Camera -- Camera functionality (both still and video) seems to have no dominance over any other feature. The Sony Clies and the Palm Zires that have cameras are still primarily considered PDAs, and my Treo 600, which has a camera (albeit a lame one), is still considered a phone. Only devices that are strictly cameras (i.e., have no other significant capability) are regarded as cameras. The only exception I've found in this regard is the Panasonic series of multi-function devices (e.g., their D-Snap line) that combine a still camera, video camera, MP3 player, and voice recorder all in one. In that device, the camera dominates the MP3 functionality.

4b. MP3/Media Player -- Being able to play music or video clips is a laudable objective for a handheld. However, it is fairly undistinguishing if this is all a device can do. Most other features (e.g., phone, gaming, and PDA/PIM) overshadow music and video playing if those features are present on the device. Consider (again) the Tapwave Zodiac. It's an excellent multimedia device, yet folks think of it first as a gaming handheld and then as a PDA, with audio and video as an "oh, yeah, it can do this too" feature. Only dedicated devices like the forthcoming Samsung Yepp YH-999 Portable Media Center are known for their audio/video playback capabilities. Were these to have phone functionality or gaming controls or established PDA/PIM functionality, they wouldn't be nearly as lauded for their A/V features. At least that's my guess.

Note that I have Camera and MP3/Video as tied for fourth. It seems there are a lot of examples of cameras that can do the audio/video playback thing and A/V devices with built-in cameras, so I don't see a clear precedence here. Maybe that will emerge as dedicated A/V devices get better and people start considering camera functionality as almost an assumed feature for mid- to upper-level electronics.

OK, I'm interested in hearing what you all think about my theory here. What are the exceptions (gadgets) to my rules that you've seen?

TechDirt and Engadget have stories about the world's fastest phone text typer. Using a standard mobile phone keypad, James Trusler tapped out "The razor-toothed piranhas of the genera Serrasalmus and Pygocentrus are the most ferocious freshwater fish in the world. In reality they seldom attack a human." in just 67 seconds (try it...I doubt you can do it in twice as long the first time).

Of course, I was curious how long this would take me on my Treo 600. Turns out that my second try (first try was interrupted by a phone call...go figure) took me 59 seconds, 8 seconds less than the world's fastest keypad poker (and I'm not a stellar thumb-board typer). Makes me realize again why I would hate to have to go back to a regular mobile phone.

So, how long does it take for you to enter this phrase on your device using your preferred method?

Just a quick post: I've now been using the Treo 600 for well over a month. So far, I'm damned impressed at its battery life.

For example, I can easily go an entire weekend of fairly heavy use (mostly PDA+GPRS plus some talk time) without even coming close to running the battery down.

Another example is from last night. I spent almost 3 straight hours using it for ebook reading (Lessig's Free Culture is excellent, by the way) with the phone on standby and GPRS enabled the entire time. When I finally turned in, my battery was still at 87%. No PDA-phone I've ever used had even close to this much stamina. Well done, guys!

Travel news reports are noting that in some jurisdictions, mobile phones may now be operated in calendar, photo viewer or similar mode.

The British Civil Aviation Authority has begun allowing this in planes under its jurisdiction, because they've decided that - in this so-called "flight mode" with the radio disabled - phones do not interfere with pilot systems.

Furthermore, the BCAA suggests that all airlines should let travelers perform all other non-phone functions - read and write documents, play games - on smartphones, in the same vein as laptops, handheld games, or MP3 players.

Flight crews are saying it is not their responsibility to check for "flight mode", but the BCAA says it is. The BCAA does require that phones make it clear when their transmitter is off - for example, Sony Ericsson's P900 smartphone displays "FLIGHT MODE" on its display.

It is not clear whether the US Federal Aviation Administration will follow the BCAA's lead.

Have you ever heard a song on the radio and thought - "That's great! Now who is that artist?" - and the DJ forgets to let you know? With a new music recognition service from AT&T Wireless, you can easily name that tune.

Customers dial #ID for the identification service, then hold their phone up to the speaker. In 15 seconds, the NowPlaying service sends out a text message with the current song title and artist, as well as information on the last five songs just played (in case you missed one of those).

The service is the first in the US, and is provided by Musicphone in cooperation with Shazam Entertainment, which has provided a similar service in the UK based on proprietary recognition technology and a database of over a million recorded songs.

The UK service includes an additional option to purchase the artist's CD containing the song, once it has been identified.

Nokia has just announced the latest addition to their N-Gage series, the N-Gage QD.

The N-Gage QD improves on the original with a number of new features, including a brighter screen, a better user interface and game controls, a hot-swappable multimedia (MMC) slot, better battery life, and new smartphone features.

The new smartphone features include personal information management, email, and an XHTML browser.

In addition, the microphone and speaker in the QD have been reoriented from the original, making for easier handling as a phone.

A new launcher application simplifies connecting the Nokia's mobile network community via the N-Gage Arena, downloading and playing all available titles, as well as taking part in multiplayer gaming via Bluetooth wireless.

Nokia expects pricing to be in the range of $199 at retail, or $99 with a mobile contract. The N-Gage QD game deck is expected to be available in May-June 2004 worldwide.

Samsung has demonstrated a 2-inch LCD panel with an equivalent resolution of 400ppi, yielding a VGA-equivalent-quality screen for use in cellphones.

Samsung's screen is based on Si-TFT technology. While the number of pixels in the panel is 240 x 640, the high-resolution display is theoretically equivalent to VGA (400-ppi, 480 x 640 pixels) was achieved by a special Four Color Rendering (4CR) technique, proprietary to the company.

The 4CR realizes high resolution equivalence with fewer pixels by utilizing RGB sub-pixels on adjoining scan lines in color and gradient renderings.

A similar technique called field sequential (FS) rendering divides pixels sequentially, displaying colors in the order of RGB.

Samsung has already demonstrated several LCD panels featuring FS rendering, technique, but this is one of the few using 4CR, and the first with this level of resolution, 10x earlier models.

Samsung claims a luminance of 200cd/m2, a contrast ratio of 200:1, and 262,000 colors, with color reproduction area against NTSC at 70%.

NTT DoCoMo has announced that phones from its 3G FOMA videophone series can now be used in Japan to control home appliances from almost anywhere the phone can be used.

The heart of the system is an in-home control box that is contacted by the phone, and which in turn processes commands to appliances via infrared (IrDA) or via cable connection.

The controller can be connected to a PC via a USB port, or to external sensors (such as light or motion sensors) via an independent I/O port. It is connected to the mobile FOMA network via a special data card.

The system lets users control lights and air conditioners, for example, turning them on or off as appropriate.

More amazingly, it enables users to remotely program recording a television program, and then transmit the playback on the phone, streamed through the FOMA network.

A FOMA videophone can also transmit pictures to the controller, for viewing on a connected screen.

I'm selling my Kyocera 7135 Palm OS smartphone on ebay.

If you want it, go bid on it.

LG Electronics has just released the first mobile phone integrating a Fastap keyboard.

Based on a CDMA 800/1900 MHz LG-5450 handset, the new phone integrates a miniature alphabetic keyboard wedged in between the regular numeric keypad.

The company claims that the Fastap keypad allows a more user-friendly approach to keyboard input for communication via email and short-message-service (SMS). Additional capabilities include a VGA camera.

Canadian carrier Telus Mobility is expected to be the first to offer service for the Fastap-enabled handset.

Digit Wireless are the inventors of the Fastap keyboard. The Massachusetts-based firm is a technology innovation and licensing company and plans to license further technology to mobile device manufacturers.

Digit Wireless recently received a second-round financing of $3.3M from Qualcomm and Telus Ventures.

If you've viewed Live from Mundania, you've noticed that the photos I've been taking with the Treo 600's camera are...well...total crap. I'm really not that bad a photographer...honest.

Well, it seems that Bill Koslosky, a.k.a. Wireless Doc, has posted the start of a rather nice-looking Treo 600 Camera Primer. While there's not a whole lot there yet, Bill emailed me today to tell me that he's working on some new material that should be posted soon.

What impressed me the most was the quality of the photos he's getting out of the Treo 600's camera. For example, the photo shown below is just one of several that are pretty amazing especially when compared to the garbage that mine seems to produce. I'm willing to accept some blame for bad pics, but I'm still not 100% convinced that my phone is acting the way it should. I guess I just need Bill to teach me the Zen of Treo 600 photography.

Siemens Mobile has just launched the first home phone with fixed-line multimedia messaging service (MMS).

The Siemens Gigaset SL740/SLX740isdn combines a high-res color display and integrated digital camera in a cordless phone. MMS capability allows photo capture and sharing from the home, and includes a 640-character SMS feature for captioning or straight communication.

The Gigaset borrows a few other tricks from mobile phones. It allows personalization of the digital phone book with snapshots, and allows different polyphonic ringer melodies assigned to specific phonebook entries.

Ringtones, logos and pictures to personalize the phone are downloadable from the Gigaset website.

The Gigaset also features synchronizability of its address book with Microsoft Outlook, and a calendar function that store dates and reminders, such as birthdays and anniversaries, next to phonebook entries.

Not wanting to spend the $30 that palmOne is asking for the Treo 600 charge/sync cradle, I went searching on ebay. I found some superb deals.

One vendor in particular, Dan's Cellular Accessories offers the Treo 600 cradle and a second Treo 600 stylus for $8.99 plus $6.99 shipping. All told, that's roughly half of what palmOne would have charged me.

I've purchased some things before from Dan (including a set of stereo headphones for my Kyocera 7135) and I've found the quality of the items I've bought from him to be equal to what I get from the manufacturer -- I believe they're manufactured by the same Asian companies that make the OEM products.

So, if you're in the hunt for phone or PDA accessories, give ebay a look.

I'm now fully switched over to my new Treo 600 (shown). All the apps and data that resided on my previous smart phone (the Kyocera 7135) have been transferred and I'm living large.

As a phone, it's dandy -- it does everything a phone is supposed to do and it does them superlatively. The size, weight, feel, and interface are all just terrific. Yes, there are smaller phones out there, but the Treo 600 is not what I would call large by any stretch.

As a PDA, it's very good. While the low-res screen reduces the amount of stuff you can see at any one time, the display is amazingly bright and clear (and it's the same 160x160 that I had on my Kyocera). The 32 MB of RAM is adequate (but not tremendous) and the 144 MHz processor is quite snappy. The SDIO slot provides nearly limitless expandability.

The real work of art here is the interface between the PDA side and the phone side. Unlike the Kyocera, there really is no division between these two functions. On the 7135, it was very apparent whether you dealing with a "phone" function or a "PDA" function -- shuttling between the two function sets was difficult and obvious.

In contrast, the Treo 600 blends everything quite perfectly. Using GPRS in a PDA application is seamless and transparent. Initiating a voice call from the Addressbook is fall-down easy. Handspring/palmOne really knows their stuff when it comes to user interfaces.

Then there's the battery life...it's heaploads better than I expected. I can easily go three days on a single charge with moderate PDA and phone/GPRS use. My Kyocera and my old Treo 270 would struggle to go 24 hours. Realizing that "battery = weight" makes me even more accepting of the Treo 600's 6 oz. weight (typical for handhelds, a bit heavier than most cellphones).

But, nothing is perfect. I wish the SDIO slot were full-power rather than it being a bit underpowered (it's not clear whether it's actually SDIO compliant in that regard). I also wish that T-Mobile's GPRS speeds were better. They're not bad in most spots, but the throughput can vary a fair bit from location to location and it still pales in comparison to Wi-Fi. I'm hoping that EDGE will come to T-Mobile fairly soon (is a hardware change required on the phone?). Finally, and this is the tiniest nit to pick, I wish it had a feature that my Tungsten C has -- hold down a letter key to capitalize it. I really like that feature and I wish the Treo 600 had that as an available option. The Shift key isn't inconvenient...it's just that I often capitalize after-the-fact and the TC's approach lets me change my mind after the letter has been struck.

Overall, to borrow from McDonald's, when it comes to the Treo 600, I'm Lovin' It.

I just received notice today that my pre-ordered Treo 600 for T-Mobile has shipped. I pre-ordered it back on February 10th (the first day pre-orders were being taken). The promised delivery date had been "sometime in March," so I'm glad to hear that it's on its way earlier than expected.

More when it arrives later this week...

So, I'm planning on switching my cellular service from Verizon to T-Mobile. My Verizon contract expires on Monday, and my Treo 600 should be getting here in early March.

I've already confirmed with T-Mobile that I can port my Verizon number over, so that's fine.

Anybody have any reactions or recommendations regarding this switch? Good packages at T-Mobile? Interesting wireless data options I should consider?

US mobile telephone operator Cingular has announced that it will acquire rival AT&T Wireless for $41B. The deal creates the largest US wireless provider, with 46 million customers and sales of over $32B.

Cingular is a joint venture between BellSouth and SBC Communications, with over 24 million customers. AT&T Wireless is the second-largest US wireless carrier, with over 22 million subscribers.

British mobile phone company Vodafone was the other participant in a bidding war for AT&T Wireless, which was up for sale with a deadline of Feb 13, extended to Feb 15.

The acquisition is still subject to shareholder and regulatory approval, but is expected to close by late 2004.

Motorola has just announced the V80 cellphone, which sports a unique rotating cover design.

Closed, the V80 shows off an colour display for playing games and photo caller ID alerts. Push a button, and the cover swings open to unveil a full-sized mobile phone.

Rotate the cover to a 90-degree angle, and the phone turns into a 640x480 VGA camera, with auto-landscape mode, photo messaging and integrated Bluetooth for photo-sharing.

The V80 also makes creative use of MP3 ringtones and lighting. Users can attach favourite songs or light patterns to friends' numbers to identify incoming calls, or can play JAVA games with flashing lights, arcade-style.

Olympus has announced its entry into the market of mobile phone camera modules.

The new camera module, pictured here with a Japanese 100-yen coin for a size comparison, realizes its thin size by employing free-shaped prisms for aligning light rays.

The free-shaped prism technology was previously employed by Olympus in a head-mount display, called Eye-Trek. The experience carried over in the design of the miniature camera module.

Compared to conventional camera modules for mobile phones that require several lenses vertically stacked on one another, the resin free-prism model is much thinner, at 8.5-mm. Olympus' camera module has an F value of 2.8, is designed for a 1/4-in optical instrument, and supports a 1.3-million-pixel image sensor.

Olympus is expecting to ship camera modules by spring of 2004, and mass-production in fall 2004, with an estimated production run of 500,000 units per month.

SanDisk Corporation is now shipping the world's first production 1-GB secure digital (SD) card.

At $500, the 1-GB SD card has the capacity to store over 30 hours of digitally compressed music, 1,000 high-res digital images, and over five hours of MPEG-4 compressed video.

This new SD card uses a novel stacking technology, which enables SanDisk to double the previous memory capacity without increasing the size of the card.

SanDisk worked with Sharp's Integrated Circuits Group to devise a way to stack additional layers of NAND MLC die in ultra-thin packages without increasing the card size. In the 1-GB card, two ultra-thin packages are vertically mounted in the same height that currently houses a single package.

The new stacking process also has the potential for application to compact flash (CF) and Sony memory stick (MS) storage media.

Almost one in three (30%) adults say the cellphone is the invention they most hate but cannot live without, according to the 8th annual Lemelson-MIT Invention Index study.

Other very essential but despised inventions cited by the survey are the alarm clock (25%) and television (23%).

The Lemelson-MIT Invention Index, which looks at attitudes toward inventions, also looked at the impact of other inventions such as email and voicemail. While teens overwhelmingly believe email (81%) and voicemail (71%) make life easier, adults agreed only to a lesser extent (59% and 58%, respectively).

Kyocera has issued a recall notice concerning a certain model of battery sold in its 7135 smartphone (shown).

1/23/04 CPSC, Kyocera Wireless Corp. Announce Recall of Batteries in Smartphone Cell Phones

WASHINGTON, D.C. - The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission, in cooperation with the manufacturers named below, today announced voluntary recalls of the following consumer products. Consumers should stop using recalled products immediately unless otherwise instructed. (To access color photos of the following recalled products, see CPSC's Web site at www.cpsc.gov.)

Name of product: Batteries in Kyocera Cell Phones (Model 7135 Smartphones)

Units: About 140,000

Manufacturer/Importer: Coslight International Group, of Hong Kong, manufactured the batteries for Kyocera Wireless Corp., of San Diego, Calif.

Hazard: The recalled batteries can short-circuit and erupt with force or emit excessive heat, posing a burn hazard to consumers.

Incidents/Injuries: Kyocera Wireless Corp. has received four reports of battery failures, including one minor burn injury.

Description: The recalled batteries are included in Kyocera model 7135 Smartphone cell phones. The black and silver flip-up phones say "Kyocera" at the top of the screen. The recalled batteries have the red and white Kyocera name printed on the front and a product code ending with -05 printed on the underside.

Sold at: Verizon Wireless, US Cellular and ALLTEL Corporation stores, in addition to Web site and telemarketing retailers nationwide sold the cell phones with the -05 battery from September 2003 through December 2003 for about $500. The batteries also were sold separately during this time for about $21.

Manufactured in: China

Remedy: Consumers with the recalled units should immediately stop using the battery in the cell phone. Kyocera Wireless will contact consumers to arrange for delivery of a free replacement battery. If consumers are not contacted by Kyocera by Feb. 6, they are asked to contact the firm to receive the free replacement battery. The batteries should be stored in an environment with non-flammable materials.

Consumer Contact: Call Kyocera Wireless Corp. at (800) 349-4478 between 6 a.m. and 6 p.m. PT Monday through Friday, or visit their Web site at www.kyocera-wireless.com.

My one-year contract with my mobile carrier is about up and I'm contemplating a change. Now that I can take my number with me (thank you, Congress), changing cellular carriers is more of an option.

Currently, I use a Kyocera 7135 on Verizon Wireless. While I have no complaints about Verizon's service (coverage and uptime have been stellar), I would prefer to go back to a GSM because the high-speed data options are better. Even the "broadband wireless" service that Verizon has rolled out in DC and San Diego doesn't seem as convenient to me as my phone always having an IP address like it does with GPRS (at least I don't think it does with Verizon's new service...I think it still requires logging on and/or dialing up). I'm not nearly as concerned with bandwidth as I am with coverage and not having to dial up or change modes to get a data connection.

I enjoyed using my Treo 270 on T-Mobile, so one idea I had was to get a Treo 600 (shown) and go back to T-Mobile. But, given that Palm OS 6 is coming out fairly soon, I'm having doubts. One concern is that, given the long validation periods that the carriers require for new handsets, we may not see Palm OS 6-powered smartphones until early 2005.

But then, I doubt I'm typical. My phone basically does three things. First, it's an organizer -- the Palm OS side of things handles all my PIM with aplomb. Second, it's mobile Internet, for email and web on-the-go. Third, it's a voice communicator, since only about 15% of all my minutes used over the past year have been voice calls (the other 85% being data calls). As I said, I'm sure that puts me pretty far outside the mainstream cellular customer. But, as smartphones get better, maybe it will become more the rule rather than the exception.

With the latest release of QuickTime, Apple is claiming that it has developed the first mainstream media format for rich multimedia content across CDMA 2000 and GSM wireless networks.

QuickTime 6.5 enhances the popular software - already a leading platform for high-quality audio and video over IP, wireless and broadband networks, with over 175 million downloads for the 6.0 version - and enables users to share high-quality multimedia across the two predominant wireless networking technologies worldwide.

The new release supports 3GPP and 3GPP2 standards, including Advanced Audio Coding (AAC), Adaptive Multi-Rate (AMR) and Qualcomm Code Excited Linear Predictive (QCELP) audio codecs, MPEG-4 and H.263 video codecs, 3G Timed Text, native .3gp and .3g2 file formats, Movie Fragments, cross-platform Unicode text support, and enhanced DV playback.

I just spoke to a customer support person from T-Mobile and she confirmed that they are able to accomodate the Treo 600 smartphone in their system.

While you can't yet buy the Treo 600 directly from T-Mobile, if you acquire one elsewhere (e.g., directly from palmOne), a T-Mobile SIM card can be obtained at any store and the phone will work with your T-Mobile account.

As an academic researcher, I study how technology can be used by organizations and businesses to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of what they do. This line of investigation often leads me to think about how we, as users, have many of the same issues that corporations do. That is, how should we purchase, implement, and use various technologies to bring about the best personal results for ourselves?

Companies have a lot of techniques at their disposal that help them measure their existing and potential technology decisions: time-and-motion studies, return-on-investment (ROI) assessments, business process re-engineering...the list goes on and on.

However, the tools available to Joe User (you and me) are much more limited. Granted, you and I don't have corporate boards we need to answer to in order to justify our technology investments (although spouses might serve the same purpose). But, is there any less reason that we shouldn't be able to systematically examine how we individually use and apply personal and mobile technology, and then strive to make better investments? Does it not seem reasonable to want to get the most bang (in terms of usefulness and enjoyment) for our technology buck?

What I'd like to see is a set of software tools. The first type of tool would probably be PC-based, and it would help us analyze our cellular use and develop a cellular profile. For example, I suspect that about 85% of my mobile minutes are spent on data calls, but I don't really know that for certain. It could actually be 50% -- I just don't know. Understanding this aspect of my usage would help me decide what kind of device(s) I should be looking for (data-centric, voice-centric, or mixed?).

The second type of tool would be an application, or family of apps, that I can run on the various devices I use. It would give me a breakdown of how I operate my devices. For example, how often do I turn on each device? How long is each device on each time? How much time do I spend doing different things (e.g., using PIM (personal information management) functions, browsing the web, listening to music, playing games, etc.)? Again, knowing all this in a more thorough and systematic way would help me determine what kind of device(s) I should be looking at.

Finally, the third type of tool I want is a comprehensive decision-assistance tool. This could, and perhaps should, be a web-based tool. It would include information on all the various handhelds, phones, and related devices (MP3 players even, maybe). Then, by entering in my personal usage information (from the above tools), this app would determine which devices best fit my user profile.

Of course, that assumes I'm a mature technology user and that my current actual usage best suits what I need to do. If someone wants to change how they use their devices, this type of tool would help with that as well (need to do more mobile email? no problem).

In short, I'd like to see this happen. Will it happen? Most definitely not, for no one person would benefit enough from doing it to produce it all, and it might require the assistance and/or blessing of way too many device makers for such a project to be feasible. So, is there a subset of this dream, a whittled-down core concept, that would still be useful? Possibly...I'm still thinking about that.

In a new article, Brighthand's Steve Bush says he has changed his ways. While he has long been a proponent of using two devices (a PDA and a phone), he is now a convert to using a smartphone. His new device, which I assume was a gift from Microsoft, is a Motorola MPx200 Smartphone.

The one task that Steve does not mention at all is entering text into the device. While the Microsoft Smartphone is a pretty nifty concept, since it has neither a touchscreen nor a thumb-keyboard, it doesn't allow for much, if any, text entry (short of the old-fashioned numpad-multiple-press approach). It has predictive word guessing, but if it's the same as on the Pocket PC, that's of minimal help.

So, my hunch is that Steve uses his phone/PDA as a phone first and a data-viewing device second. My personal use precludes this device since I enter a lot of data directly into the device (new contacts, appointments, to do lists, etc.). I just can't imagine having to tap out 2-2-8-8-9-9-9-0-2-2-7-7-7-3-3-2-3 just to get "buy bread" when 9 key pushes is all that's needed on a thumbboard.

This just goes back to illustrate (yet again) that we've yet to see the "perfect" device for a majority of users. Or have we? Perhaps such a device is merely just the simple cellular phone without any data stuff on it -- at least here in North America, that seems to be what the vast majority prefers.

If you're a Verizon customer, you can't currently even consider getting the yummy new Treo 600 smartphone from palmOne (nee Handspring).

However, there's a rather sizable online petition going to get Verizon to add the Treo 600 to its approved handset list. You can sign the petition here<.a>.

Plus, Gizmodo is reporting that Verizon is saying that it's considering it, so there may be hope yet.

Nokia has admitted that hackers have cracked its N-Gage copy protection codes, allowing copied games to be traded over the Internet.

While Nokia hopes to sell up to 9 million units by the end of 2004, a key part of revenue comes from games, so this latest setback is critical to Nokia's bid to find a foothold in the mobile gaming market.

Telecom giant NTT DoCoMo has demonstrated a prototype wristband phone - called Finger Whisper - which works by transforming the user's hand into a phone, with a microphone on the wrist and a finger earpiece.

To start a call, the user touches forefinger to thumb, enabling voice-recognition dialling via a microphone in the wristband, which also allows calls out.

Calls coming in are converted by Finger Whisper into vibrations transmitted to the bones of the hand. Put your finger in your ear, and these vibrations are sent to the eardrum, and converted back to voice by the brain.

Ever needed to take a business call at home but not give out your home number? Hated juggling between multiple numbers? Cingular Wireless promises to make things easier with the FastForward cradle.

The patented device plugs into an electrical outlet. When a Cingular Wireless phone is inserted into the cradle, calls to the cellphone are forwarded automatically to a designated landline phone, while the cellphone’s battery is being re-charged. Remove the cellphone, and call forwarding is deactivated. Simple!

The $40 FastForward cradle is compatible with select Nokia, Motorola, Sony Ericsson, and Siemens phones. A $3 monthly package enables unlimited call forwarding capability...and also saves your cellphone minutes for use when you actually are on the go.

Looks like a winner to me!

It's official... Shareholders have approved Palm's spinoff of its PalmSource operating system unit, and the acquisition of Handspring by its palmOne hardware unit.

PalmOne will be helmed by Todd Bradley, currently leading the Palm Solutions Group. Its Handheld Computing Solutions group will be led by Ken Wirt, currently a senior VP for Palm Solutions, and its Smart Phone Solutions group will be led by Ed Colligan, currently Handspring President.

Jeff Hawkins, founder of Palm and currently Handspring's Chairman and Chief Product Officer, will be Chief Technology Officer for palmOne. Donna Dubinsky, Handspring CEO, joins palmOne's board of directors.

Under the stock swap formula put together earlier this year, Handspring's shareholders would own 32.2 per cent of the new company, and Palm's shareholders would own 67.8 percent.

Officials hope the new focus brought about by the PalmSource spinoff and Handspring acquisition will help it stay ahead of rivals in a shrinking market.

Several websites have posted initial impressions of their recently obtained Treo 600 smartphones from Handspring:

• Alex King seems to love his and he posted several photos of the contents of the box and a comparison to his Handspring Treo 300.
  
• Gizmodo says they have "...been getting a TON of email about the new Treo 600, mainly from readers who have gotten one and can't believe how good it is."
  
• TreoCentral got a 24-hour take-home preview and had many, many laudatory comments about the 600.
  

Update: While the Sprint Treo 600 has been launched to much acclaim, the GSM/GPRS version that is supposed to come out on T-Mobile has been delayed again.

In this mobile age characterized by the flavor-of-the-day feature, where the camcorder phone trumps the camera phone, it's refreshing to find a company whose business plan is based on the motto "Less is more."

The Cyclone phone, by New Horizons Technologies International (NHTI), is about as basic as you can get - but it works! It is recyclable and rechargeable, and in its guide as the 911+ emergency cell phone, can be powered by three regular AA batteries!

The five-ounce phone is packaged with nationwide minutes and retails for $39.99 (15 minutes); $49.99 (30 minutes); or $59.99 (60 minutes), and will be available at your local grocery, hardware store, or Kwikee Mart. Duracell, a major partner, will be marketing the phone alongside its battery displays.

The purchaser activates the phone himself by dialling a toll-free number. A live operator asks for his ESN (electronic serial number), and gives the customer his own phone number. Voila!

The low cost and simplicity means the phone will appeal to seniors and to parents with pre-teen children - who may need to phone home, but don't need to SMS. NHTI hopes people will buy the Cyclone like flashlights, and store them throughout the house, car, cottage, school locker or backpack....ready for use in the next emergency.

PalmInfocenter has a story about a new phone that Samsung is working on, the SGH-i505 (pictured). The SGH-i505 is a GSM clamshell phone based on Palm OS 5.2.1.

The nifty bits of the SGH-i505 are the high-res screen (320x320), the integrated VGA camera, and the fact that you can swivel the screen 180 degrees to lay it back down over the keypad (the first that we know of that lets you do that).

The story was broken first by msmobiles.com, which seems a bit odd, and is the source of the photo shown. Given that Samsung has recently delayed the SGH-i500, its previously announced GSM Palm OS 5 phone, perhaps the SGH-i505 is already set to replace it even before the SGH-i500 is ever released. Stranger things have happened, for sure.

There seems to be growing concern about the future (if not the present) for mobile devices using Microsoft operating system, Windows Mobile. Two recent blog entries offer some interesting insights into this issue.

Mike Rohde recently blogged some thoughts about stagnation in the Pocket PC space, especially as he compares it to the innovation going on in the Palm OS camp, and offers some links to other stories to support his ideas:

"I don't think Pocket PC is going away, but rather that Microsoft may be looking to greener pastures like their new Smartphone platform or Tablet PC platform."

However, per Gizmodo, Steve Sande over at PDAntic has some rather significant concerns over Microsoft's strategy, or lack thereof, and doubts the longterm commitment that Microsoft is making to any of its mobile products, including Tablet PC:

"I just don't feel like Microsoft is doing much to generate any excitement in the mobile computing world lately. Last week's introduction of three new PalmOS devices from PalmOne is one of several "symptoms" that indicate to me that things might not be going all that well in the Windows Mobile world."

So, what's up with mobiles in Redmond? Given that both JVC and Gateway have recently abandoned their stated intentions of developing Windows Mobile products, is Windows Mobile in trouble? Is it being ignored by Microsoft in order to shore up other, more reliable (and traditional) products, or does Microsoft just simply not get mobility (like it didn't get the Internet for a while)?

CNET's Brian Cooley talks with Joni Blecher about the Handspring Treo 600 smartphone.

Watch the video here. My goodness, that thing is small!

Editorial comment: After watching the entire video, one starts to wonder how Joni Blecher got that job. Could she know less about the devices she reviews?

According to New Scientist, origami techniques are providing cameras in cellphones with a much better focusing mechanism.

"Thanks to a novel and ultra-cheap micromotor technology, cellphone cameras should soon be able to zoom and focus with the same precision as the autofocusing lenses used in expensive stills cameras.

1 Limited of Cambridge, UK, has found a novel way to make a thin sheet of a piezoelectric ceramic material work like a motor. It can move whatever is placed on top of it, or it can be rolled into a cylinder to grasp and move a miniature camera lens."

Moving from fixed-focus to variable focus should provide a large improvement in picture quality. Of course, I'm not sure I'd put picture quality as my #1 concern when it comes to cellphones, but maybe that's just me.

In this article, CNET News.com reports on a report suggesting that increased mobile phone sales are leading to the decline in PDA sales:

"The market for mobile phones is increasingly encroaching on the market for handheld organizers, leading to the second straight year of decline in organizer shipments, according to a report from research firm IDC.

So-called "converged" mobile phones, which combine organizer functions with the ability to make phone calls, are taking customers away from the handheld device market, IDC said Monday. For 2003, worldwide shipments are expected to decline 8.4 percent, to 11.35 million units from 12.4 million units last year."

If you take a different perspective -- that "converged mobile devices" are both phones and PDAs, then one might conclude that the PDA market is doing well...actually growing. It's not clear why IDC arbitrarily decided that anything that can be used as a cellular phone is a "phone" -- I think the lines separating the various categories are getting too blurred to make this type of report very useful.

Think of the Palm Tungsten W (pictured at the right). Out of the box, it can be used to place voice calls, but it's primary mission in life is as a wireless data device. Is this a "phone?" It's not clear from IDC's report whether this is counted or not (I believe it would be).

OK, then, what about any of the PDAs that have Wi-Fi built-in? These can be used for voice-over-IP (VOIP), meaning you could place a voice call if you're within an active Wi-Fi network with an Internet connection. Is that a phone? If not, why not? Or, what about the phones that have merely a bare-bones calendar and address book? Are those considered "converged devices?" Again, it's not clear from the IDC report what the criteria truly are. In fact, one would nearly need to go device-by-device to establish which category each fits into and why.

So, as the lines between device categories continue to blur, and "converged device" has less and less meaning every day, I'll continue to take reports like this one from IDC with a huge grain of salt. Or, better yet, perhaps we should just start ignoring them totally. Maybe then these research/consulting houses would be forced to come up with something more useful than the omnipresent "exponential growth" curve that they seem to use to describe every technology on the horizon.

But then again, if they showed what a reasonably clued in person expects for most new technologies, many fewer copies of their reports would be sold -- nobody is interested in reading about things that are headed into obscurity. How do you spell "conflict of interest" again?