Category: Industry

May 8, 2008

Technical Maturation of the Smartphone Market

I'm heartened to see stories like this: Windows Mobile to get pumped up on Nvidia (CNET). I've tried Windows Mobile many times and every time two things send me running as fast as I can away from the platform:

1) The god-awful user interface

2) The reliance of WM on Outlook

While the second problem probably won't go away any time soon -- Microsoft likes to link its products even when its customers don't necessarily want them linked -- the first problem will probably be greatly mitigated if we can get high-end graphics to speed up and beautify the UI.

I'm sure, however, that Windows Mobile won't be the only game in town with high-powered graphics hardware on board. Google's Android seems to be designed with that type of experience clearly in mind. This, plus the "open network" push we're seeing, means that the next 12-18 months should be a very interesting time in the smartphone space.

Posted by Craig in Industry and Phones
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May 2, 2008

In Search of a Quicker Demise

The industriousness and efficiency of humanity is really, really impressive if you stop to think about it. While lesser species sit around and wait for Nature to "happen," we devise new ways of accelerating our ass-over-teakettle tumble through new realities.

One particularly delicious example of this is global warming. "Oh, yes, we know all about that," you say, but wait...there's a cool twist.

For years, scientists have been telling us that the Earth's climate is changing, largely due to the burning of fossil fuels and other of man's activities that result in a hotter planet. And for years, scientists have been predicting the most dire of outcomes: dramatic loss of coastal land (and the cities that sit on them), increasingly violent and unpredictable weather, a huge decrease in biodiversity as scores of plant and animal species fail to adapt to what is essentially overnight change to their ecosystems, and so on.

One prediction that scared the US Defense Department so much that it put global warming on its list of top national security threats was the likelihood of widespread food shortages. Changing weather patterns, including increased drought and flooding, were going to wreck havoc on food production around the globe. This shortage would then lead to instability in parts of the world that weren't terribly stable to begin with and further fuel the anti-Western backlash that began sometime before this decade. This would generate new threats like terrorism, disruptions to our own food and energy supply chains, and increase the uncertainty in global markets. All told, not a very rosy scenario.

And that was all supposed to happen by the middle of this century.

But, humanity's unfailing inability to leave bad enough alone has created a worldwide food shortage well before global warming could directly. No, global warming (which, remember, is our fault) is motivating us to seek out alternative fuel sources, such as corn-based petroleum substitutes. These biofuels are diminishing the availability of food and driving up costs. This, in turn, is starting to generate unease in the world's poorest communities. And that is precisely the type of situation that the Defense Department warned us about...just about 40 years earlier than predicted.

It is indeed ironic that our efforts to stem global warming are resulting in many of the very same problems that global warming was itself going to cause, just sooner. When your best effort to avoid calamity only hastens its arrival, you have to wonder whether there's any hope of steering clear at all.

Posted by Craig in Cars and Industry and Science & Nature
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April 26, 2008

Famous Look-Alikes: Steve Ballmer and Peter Boyle

Why does Steve Ballmer (photo borrowed from Gizmodo)

keep reminding me of Peter Boyle in Young Frankenstein?

Seriously...is it just me?

Posted by Craig in Computing and Industry and Movies & Books
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April 1, 2008

Fighting T-Mobile with Its Own Color

T-Mobile is being a collective asshat. It's threatening to sue Engadget by claiming, ridiculously enough, that the website is infringing on T-Mobile's use of the color magenta.

So, GearBits is painting itself magenta for the day in an act of solidarity against such stupid abuse of intellectual property laws.

Posted by Craig in Industry and Wireless
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March 25, 2008

Wal-Mart Sues Brain-Damaged Ex-Employee

You gotta hand it to big companies; they just keep finding new ways to be sociopathic.

The latest example is Wal-Mart. Yes, the big, yellow happy-face is suing a brain-damaged ex-employee. According to CNN (paraphrased):

Eight years ago, Debbie Shank was stocking shelves for the retail giant and signed up for Wal-Mart's health and benefits plan.

Shank suffered severe brain damage after a traffic accident that robbed her of much of her short-term memory and left her in a wheelchair and living in a nursing home.

Two years after the accident, Shank and her husband, Jim, were awarded about $1 million in a lawsuit against the trucking company involved in the crash. After legal fees were paid, $417,000 was placed in a trust to pay for Debbie Shank's long-term care.

Wal-Mart had paid out about $470,000 for Shank's medical expenses, but in 2005, Wal-Mart's health plan sued the Shanks for the same amount.

And then, as if these people need more bad news, their son was killed in Iraq and Jim Shank was diagnosed with colon cancer. He even had to divorce Debbie last year in order to maximize her Medicaid payments.

You have to read the full story to get all the details. But I particularly enjoyed the Wal-Mart spokesman's response to why the Shanks couldn't keep the money they won in the lawsuit against the trucking company:

"Wal-Mart's plan is bound by very specific rules. ... We wish it could be more flexible in Mrs. Shank's case since her circumstances are clearly extraordinary, but this is done out of fairness to all associates who contribute to, and benefit from, the plan."

Translation: We'd sell our own mother for a dollar.

This is corporate greed exaggerated to unfathomable proportions. If this had been the plot of a movie, people would be complaining it was too far-fetched. Yet, it's all true.

In an interesting coincidence, Bob sent me a link to a video showing the virus-like spread of Wal-Mart across the US from its 1962 origins in Arkansas.

Posted by Craig in Industry
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March 17, 2008

Hello Verizon, may I introduce you to GPL?

I'm a techie that spends most of my days in the the software world. I sometimes deal with litigation concerns. So this little news update caught my eye, "Verizon settles open source software lawsuit." It seems that a hardware device manufacturer, Actiontec, supplies a FiOS router to Verizon and the device had shipped with some code that it didn't properly license. The code in question was some software, called BusyBox, which is released under an open source license (in this case, GPLv2.)

I actually have an Actiontec FiOS router in my house.

Except for the flaky wireless access point, it does a great job serving up my FiOS internet with phenomenal uptime. I do find myself disappointed that the Actiontec folks didn't concern themselves with the rules of open source.

I haven't dug deep enough to know if Actiontec was sued as well, but they will have to play by the rules and post their own code online. Now, perhaps, I can add some neat features to my Actiontec router at home!

It is interesting how Verizon got caught in the mix here. Not that I know what happened, but you might assume that they picked a hardware supplier and didn't fully check out the suppliers development processes. It almost makes me feel sorry for Verizon.

I'll admit that the fact that I like my FiOS internet makes me more than a bit subjective in this case. :)

If you didn't know, the BusyBox developers are a smart bunch. Their little utility helps you turn some ordinary hardware devices into an interactive computer. (I've recently run BusyBox on a DNS-323 network storage device to improve its ftp support.) It supports a wide range of useful unix commands on a command prompt (for you Windows folks out there, imagine being able to open a Windows command prompt or "dos box" on you wireless router and do a dir command.)

Posted by Bob in Computing and Industry and Internet
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March 11, 2008

Microsoft's Tough Time: Price Reductions Hurt Image

Microsoft has had some embarrassing setbacks lately across its product range. Based on poor sales, the company has had to reduce prices on a variety of its premier offerings.

Late last year, Microsoft started a fire sale on its Zune line of portable media players. Granted, that was in part due to a new model coming out, but you don't see prices on successful products like iPods cut that dramatically at the end of the product life cycle (a sure sign Microsoft overestimated demand on its first-generation device).

Earlier this month, Microsoft's premier product line, the Windows Vista operating system, had prices reduced by as much as 25% to help spur flagging sales (corporate sales of Vista have been far short of what Microsoft expected). Even Microsoft has been critical of Vista.

And just today, Microsoft announced that prices for the Xbox 360 would be slashed in Europe to undercut the Nintendo Wii. Competing with the steamroller that is the Wii has to be tough...doubly so if your product is more expensive and similarly (now) lacks the capability to play HD media.

It makes you wonder why Redmond is going after Yahoo!, at a cost of almost $45 billion, when so many of its core products seem to be doing so poorly.

Posted by Craig in Industry
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March 8, 2008

What Hot Wheels Should Do with the Web

My daughter and I decided that we wanted to play cars. She was there in her fairy princess outfit running a Hot Wheels car along the floor and it occurred to me that we didn't have any track! When I was a kid (in the 70s), Hot Wheels track was about as ubiquitous as Lego pieces and army men, so it seemed imperative that we go procure some track immediately.

So, we went out to the store and I was shocked and dismayed at how Hot Wheels has devolved over the years. Sure, they offered several track kits, but none of them actually had much track. They had these complicated, automated moving ramps and claw things that picked up the cars and smacked them into each other. The most track I could find in any set was a mere 14 feet! Plus, they didn't sell just track...the only way to get some was to buy one of these kits.

This pales in comparison to how it used to be, when you were able to buy sets with tons of track AND you were also able to purchase separate "Track Packs" of 10-20 pieces and those little purple connectors.

So, I checked eBay. Of course, tons of people were selling old kits like what I remembered. The problem was (a) they were charging an arm and a leg for them (one guy wanted $40 for 40 feet of track), and (b) the shipping charges were even worse (another $20 for UPS ground?!). I'm sorry, but $60 for some Hot Wheels track is just ridiculous.

So, I had an epiphany. Hot Wheels should harness the power of the web to recapture people's imaginations. Currently, the only interactive feature Hot Wheels has is an online personalized database of all the cars you've collected. Whee. No, what I have in mind is a bit more invigorating:

The Hot Wheels Track Set Online Design Studio

Imagine a browser-based tool that lets you assemble parts of track sets that Hot Wheels sells into your own custom track setup. You could drag and drop all the 2-foot pieces you want, add a couple of 90-degree banked curves, toss in an inline accelerator, put in a full loop, and then reconnect back to where you started. The system would automagically calculate all the connectors you need and give you a price quote. Then, if you decided to purchase it, Hot Wheels would assemble your custom package and ship it straight to you.

An interesting extension of this would be if you could take advantage of some of today's gaming technology and actually test out different configurations by running virtual cars through your newly designed track. Finding out that you need a bit more elevation drop (and thus more track) for your design to work would be quite useful to ensure that people aren't disappointed by what they've designed. Plus, Hot Wheels could give each person a list of cars they own that is compatible with the track they've designed. Furthermore, imagine if you could share the tracks you've designed with other people; think Cafe Press for Hot Wheels.

I don't know about you, but I think this would rock. With all the quality issues Mattel has had recently, they're going to have to differentiate themselves on some other dimension, and offering customized Hot Wheels track sets might be just the ticket. Plus, think how much added press and brand-building could be accomplished by an online tool like this. Seems like a decent idea to me.

Posted by Craig in Industry and Internet
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February 13, 2008

Google's gPhone Up Close and Personal

Over two years ago, I initiated a general plea for a gPhone. Apparently, PalmSolo has witnessed the answer to my request at MWC08.

Check out his photos and video of HTC's gPhone, an Android test mule, in action (via ZD Net)

I'm fairly certain that my 700p will be my last Treo and that something running Android will be my next smartphone. Now if I can just go another 8-9 months...

Posted by Craig in Industry and Phones and Wireless
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February 5, 2008

Competition is Good...Unless It's Not

Microsoft's recent play for Yahoo!, an effort to advance its online advertising market share and more effectively dominate the entire world compete with Google, got me thinking back a bit to those interesting days in the late 90s when Microsoft was having to defend its monopoly status in the operating system market. A couple of graphs and quotes might be helpful, here.

So, according to Microsoft, the market on the left is just fine and doesn't need any intervention, whereas the market on the right has no compelling "number two competitor" and would benefit from some consolidation.

I think that's called wanting to eat your cake and have it at the same time.

Posted by Craig in Computing and Industry and Internet
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January 25, 2008

More Evidence that Blu-Ray Has Won the HD Format War

It's pretty safe to say, I think, that the HD format war is over. Two pieces of information reveal just how dire HD DVD's situation is.

First, this article at TWICE describes some recent NPD figures: "Blu-ray Disc player sales accounted for 90 percent of dedicated HD disc player unit sales and dollar volume during the week ending Jan. 12." 90 percent? Wow.

Second, and perhaps this is a bit more subtle, but the marketplace at AVSForum.com, home planet for the A/V obsessed, shows an interesting trend. Over the past two weeks, there have been around 25 HD DVD players offered for sale, but only two stand-alone Blu-Ray players have been put up (and one mentioned wanting to upgrade). That's a far larger margin than player sales have been, suggesting that the early adopter crowd is starting to abandon the HD DVD format rather quickly.

So, I can't say I'm sorry to see one of the formats go. From the beginning of this war, I've said I don't care who wins, just to make it snappy. I'm glad 2008 will be the year one side gives up (Toshiba, that'd be you).

Update: Apparently now, the rumor is that Circuit City is preparing to put all its HD DVD players on clearance, suggesting that it is quitting the format altogether.

Posted by Craig in Home A/V and Industry
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January 4, 2008

GearBits' Predictions for 2008

As has become customary around the changing of the calendar, here are GearBits' official predictions for 2008.

1) Blu-Ray Wins the Format War
Yep, I'm going to pick a winner and it's going to be Blu-Ray. The one-two punch of Warner Brothers's move to Blu-Ray exclusivity (from its Switzerland-like neutrality of supporting both formats) later in 2008 and Apple's announcement that BD will be the only HD format available in its products will cement HD DVD's demise. And none too soon. I don't really care which wins...just make it snappy so that prices on players and media can plummet, thanks.

2) Google's Android Shakes Up Phone Industry
For a while now, the cellphone industry has been fairly static. A few smartphone and mobile OS makers have generally tussled for market share, but the overall industry has been pretty evolutionary. Google's entry will prove to be a watershed moment, with open source finally making a big impact in the handheld space (and no, I don't consider the Zaurus to be a big deal...sorry). Actual handsets running Android will be announced, if not available, before the end of 2008.

3) Palm Supports Android
This is more of a hope than an actual prediction, as I just don't know whether the egos at Palm will let the company do the right thing and admit that their next-generation OS (which has been under development since 2004!) will be a viable contender against Android (which has essentially the same technical details but scads more developer support). But, if cooler, more rational heads prevail at Palm, they'll announce that they're plans will be to produce at least one Android-based product (probably to come out sometime in 2012 :-/ ).

4) Microsoft's HD Photo Replacement for JPEG Image Standard Goes Nowhere
I'm not saying it's a bad idea technically; I'm just saying that JPEG is so entrenched now that replacing it would be about as reasonable a thing to try as would be replacing MP3 with any of the multitudes of better formats. JPEG, like MP3, isn't great, but it's adequate (at least for consumers) and ubiquitous. We'll still be saving all our photos in JPG (and maybe RAW) at the end of 2008...and likely long after that.

5) Subnotes Will Explode in Availability (and Maybe Popularity)
I've always been a fan of tiny, sub-3-pound laptops, but I think 2008 will see a huge number of these clamshell devices come out of every corner of the consumer electronics space. The Asus EeePC and the OLPC XO Laptop are two examples. While Microsoft had a good idea in its UMPC (Ultra-Mobile PC) concept, the hardware was just never executed all that well. Frankly, I think a 7" touchscreen for Windows is just too difficult. But, going with the traditional clamshell design and using cheaper and/or smaller technologies (e.g., flash memory instead of a HDD) will bring us a raft of interesting (and some good) designs at <$500 price points. Bring 'em on! And I think we'll start to see a lot more people toting these things along that traditionally avoided laptops for whatever reason (cost, weight, etc.).

6) The GPS War Heats Up
TomTom, Nokia, and Garmin will exchange hostile fire over the GPS market due to convuluted agreements regarding mapping data as well as market-share for hardware. Products will continue to decline in price and improve in functionality, and >50% of cellphones will have some form of GPS functionality available on them. I guess that's two predictions in one...oh well.

7) DRM Hits Choppy Water
2007 saw some movement away from DRM (digital rights management), especially in the music industry, but I expect we'll see similar initiatives in all areas of media. DRM has been proven again and again to be little more than an expensive technological boondoggle, and the leading innovators at the consumer media interface (e.g., Apple, Amazon, and Google) will make some headway into reversing the trend of more encumbrance for our media. The RIAA and MPAA will continue to fight it...they know how to do nothing else...but economic results will start to demonstrate that DRM actually hurts profitability.

8) Major Tech Stocks End 2008 Up Significantly
These are bound to be wrong, but what the heck...nobody pays me for stock tips. I think Apple will end 2008 at 235, Google will be at 960, and Microsoft will finish the year at 50. As for other stocks, iRobot will end up at either 46 or 12 (can you tell I'm a cynical shareholder?), IBM will show tepid growth to 112, and RIM, hurt by the continued weak US dollar and facing increasing competition, will struggle to match its 1-year high of 127.

9) I Buy a New Laptop and Am Disappointed
My Panasonic CF-W2 is now three-and-a-half-years-old and I'm starting to cringe every time I turn it on (my luck with hard drives makes me skeptical of many living past their 4th birthday). I've been looking at possible replacements (e.g., Toshiba R500, Panasonic W7, maybe the Lenovo IdeaPad U110 or the rumored Apple subnote) and so far every single one has some significant trade-offs. So, I expect I'll get one and it will turn out to be not significantly better than my aging Toughbook. You'd think in nearly four years that two grand would buy something markedly superior. We'll see...

10) Major Changes in Automotive Industry Announced
While the car business makes actual change only very slowly, we'll see some huge announcements in 2008 that will fundamentally change the future of that industry. Things like record oil prices, an increasing attention to sustainable/green technology, and significant ownership changes will substantially change the competitive landscape. Make no mistake; Toyota will continue its ascent and eclipse GM as #1 car-maker in the world. But, we will see several major announcements that will start affecting actual consumers in 2009 and beyond.

So, I'll check back in about 12 months to see how I fared. In the meantime, what do you think will happen?

Posted by Craig in Computing and Gaming and Home A/V and Industry and Internet and Other and Phones and Photography and Popular Media and Science & Nature and Society / Politics and Technology and Wireless
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December 28, 2007

Most Popular Media on Peer-to-Peer Networks

Wired has an interesting article that shows the media (recording artists, TV shows, and movies) most popular on the P2P networks (i.e., BitTorent). I was surprised...surprised by (a) two of my favorite shows were on the list, and (b) I'd heard of nearly nothing on the music list. I guess aging has its consequences, eh?

Anyway, here are the lists (for the full details, check out the Wired story):

Top Songs of 2007
1. Shop Boyz - "Party Like A Rock Star"
2. Akon - "I Wanna Luv U"
3. Sean Kingston - "Beautiful Girls"
4. Mims - "This Is Why I'm Hot"
5. Akon - "Don't Matter"
6. T-Pain - "Bartender"
7. Soulja Boy - "Crank Dat Soulja Boy"
8. Justin Timberlake - "My Love"
9. DJ Unk - "Walk It Out"
10. Jim Jones - "We Fly High"

Top Music Artists of 2007
1. T.I.
2. T-Pain
3. Akon
4. 50 Cent
5. R. Kelly
6. Lil Wayne
7. Justin Timberlake
8. Fergie
9. Ludacris
10. Snoop Dogg

Top Movies of 2007
1. Resident Evil: Extinction
2. Pirates of The Caribbean: At World's End
3. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry
4. Ratatouille
5. Superbad
6. Beowulf
7. Transformers
8. American Gangster
9. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
10. Stardust

Top TV Shows of 2007
1. Heroes
2. Prison Break
3. Top Gear
4. Smallville
5. Desperate Housewives
6. House, M.D.
7. Lost
8. Grey's Anatomy
9. 24
10. Dexter

Posted by Craig in Industry and Internet and Movies & Books and Music & Audio and Popular Media and Society / Politics
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December 24, 2007

Corporate Doublespeak Makes You Look Silly

I just received a notice that my Blockbuster.com subscription pricing would be increasing at the end of the year. My original plan price was $14.99, then was increased to 17.99 earlier this year, and is now going up to $19.99. So I went to the Blockbuster website to see about alternate plans.

Upon reviewing the currently available plans I noticed that none of them seemed to offer the two monthly "e-coupons" (good for one free movie or game rental each) that I get now. Upon searching their FAQs for clarification, here's what I found:

Question: Why don't I receive e-coupons? My friend receives an e-coupon each month.

Answer: We recently enhanced our plans to provide our subscribers with more options. As part of this effort, e-coupons were eliminated from most of, but not all, our plans. If you have friends who still receive e-coupons, it may be because they are on one of the older plans that still include e-coupons.

Hold the fort. When they "enhanced their plans" to "give more options," they eliminated coupons good for one free anything in the store? What's more flexible than that? How can the elimination of a great feature like this be either an "enhancement" or "give me more options?" This kind of doublespeak makes Blockbuster look silly, if not downright disingenuous.
C'mon, Blockbuster...you can do better by your customers than this.

So, in the interest of honesty, here's what I suggest as an alternate FAQ:

Question: Why don't I receive e-coupons? My friend receives an e-coupon each month.

Answer: We recently changed our plans to better serve more customers in a cost-effective manner. Coupons were confusing to some customers and were not used by most, suggesting that we could do better by focusing on other aspects of our service.* As a result, we eliminated e-coupons from all plans available to new members. If you have friends who still receive e-coupons, it may be because they are on one of the older plans that still include e-coupons.

* I made this sentence up just to give some reasonable justification for their decision. In my experience, customers are much more willing to work with you and accommodate your pricing/terms if the rationale behind them is clearly explained and reasonable (i.e., not overly advantageous to the provider).

Posted by Craig in Industry and Movies & Books
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November 6, 2007

Find a Penny, Save a Bit More

And to think that someone once told me I was wasting my time saving Canadian pennies.

Canada's Dollar Reaches Record High on Fed Rate Cut Speculation

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Canada's dollar climbed to a record against its U.S. counterpart on speculation credit market losses will prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again this year.

The currency rose 0.7 percent to $1.0791 at 8:07 a.m. in Toronto as the U.S. dollar weakened against 15 of the 16 most- traded currencies.

Read the whole story (Bloomberg.com)

Posted by Craig in Industry and Other and Society / Politics
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September 21, 2007

Microsoft Zune Officially Jumps the Shark

At least according to woot!, who is once again offering the much-maligned Zune at its lowest price to date...just $129.99. That's even lower than the very impressive $149.99 they had less than a month ago.

Check out today's woot! entry for a Steve Jobs iPhone rebate parody as well...terrific stuff.

Posted by Craig in Industry and Mobile & PDAs and Music & Audio
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August 22, 2007

A Sure Sign that Zune Is a Loser?

A little less than a year ago, Microsoft launched its iPod competitor, the Zune, for $250.

Within 7 months, the price had fallen under $200. Now, 4 months later, the Zune is $150 and being sold through Woot.com, the online equivalent of the Dollar Store.

I think it's safe to say the Zune wasn't exactly a home run.

Of course, an alternate explanation is that Zune version 2 is on its way and Microsoft is just clearing out the last of its old inventory through a lower-visibility channel. We shall see...

Update: Turns out that Woot had 6300 units and sold all of them over a 21-hour period. Seems demand for Zunes might be fairly elastic.

Posted by Craig in Industry and Mobile & PDAs and Music & Audio
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July 31, 2007

FedEx SmartPost Not Very Smart

I recently bought a t-shirt from an online retailer. Their chosen method of shipping the shirt to me is a new service from FedEx called "SmartPost," which uses FedEx facilities/transportation part of the journey and then hands off to the US Postal Service for final in-home delivery.

A large number of this retailer's customers have noticed that SmartPost takes a really long time to get from the origin to the destination and often follows some rather peculiar, if not nonsensical, routes. As an example, here's the route my own package is following:

Manifest ID: 218_____ Status: Sortation Center Departure Est. in Home 07/31/2007

Date	Time	Description	Location
July 23, 2007	5:00 PM	Pickup	CARROLLTON, TX
July 23, 2007	6:05 PM	Sortation Center Arrival	DALLAS, TX
July 24, 2007	7:10 AM	Sortation Center Departure	DALLAS, TX
July 25, 2007	2:34 AM	Sortation Center Arrival	NEW BERLIN, WI
July 26, 2007	8:15 AM	Sortation Center Departure	NEW BERLIN, WI
July 26, 2007	5:26 PM	Sortation Center Arrival	GROVE CITY, OH
July 27, 2007	3:01 AM	Sortation Center Departure	NEW BERLIN, WI
July 27, 2007	8:02 PM	Sortation Center Arrival	CHARLOTTE, NC
July 31, 2007	5:10 AM	Sortation Center Departure	CHARLOTTE, NC

And just for fun, here's a map showing the rather circuitous path my t-shirt has taken so far (the purple envelope is the origin in Carrollton and the golden house icon is my home in Cincinnati):

Needless to say, I don't think it's going to be making it to my house by the estimated delivery date.

Posted by Craig in Industry
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June 13, 2007

The 3-State Race (3SR): 86-Mile Road Race around Cincinnati I-275 Loop

I have an idea. It's pretty crazy and 99% likely never to bear fruit, but I feel compelled to describe it here...just in case. And don't think this is entirely thought out...I'm imagining it literally as I type.

Imagine this: a road race around the 86-mile loop of highway circling Cincinnati, Ohio known as I-275 (map below). I-275 in Cincinnati is a divided highway ranging from 2 to 4 lanes in both directions. It wanders through three different states -- Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky -- and crosses the Ohio river twice.

Who could race in this event? Anyone. It would be a true road race where any road-worthy automobile may enter. Think road rally for the everyman.

But who would race in this event? That's an entirely different question. Since closing I-275 would be impossible for any period of time more than, say, a few hours (if even then), the field of cars would have to be limited to about 180. Here's how I figure that. If one lap is 86 miles and even the pokiest racer should be able to average 100 mph, that's .86 hours, or about 50 minutes around the whole loop. If you want to finish the last car in by noon (to re-open the highway), and you wanted to start each car a minute behind the previous one (so as to limit bunching up), then you could launch cars for three hours straight (e.g., starting at 8am, the last one leaving at 11am and returning just before noon).

But, who would those 180 racers be? Well, we'd need to make sure that they know how to drive, so they would have to show that their cars are road-legal and pass a full race safety inspection (a la SCCA rules). But that would still leave thousands aching for a chance to blast through closed highways at ridiculous speeds.

So, to further pare the field, a $500 entry fee would be required. Maybe make it $1,000...or maybe auction off the spots. Alternately, and this could be done to help offset the costs of hosting the race (more on that later), the organizers could require a $X00 fee to enter a RAFFLE from which participants would be drawn. Then, each participant would have to pay the entry fee to actually race. The motivation would be the thrill, potential prize money, and some local fame.

I also imagine that you'd need a few classes of cars, primarily for sequencing the starts (you should have the fastest cars at the beginning and the slowest at the end in order to minimize overtaking and passing) and based primarily on top speeds (e.g., 180+, 160-180, 140-160, and less than 140). This would be the perfect opportunity for those rich guys with their Porsche Carreras and Mercedes SLRs to really open them up on public roads. It would also make for a really fine exotic car show.

Staging the cars could be done at an on-ramp area near I-75 and adjacent to a large commercial base of restaurants, etc. for helping support the hordes of tourists.

And that brings me to the money part. This could, if managed correctly, be a HUGE money-maker for the region. While you could you sell TV rights to the event, the tourism dollars alone would be enormous. If the race is on a Sunday morning (lightest traffic means the best time to close the highway for a few hours), then the day before, a Saturday, could be a huge parade of all the cars through downtown Cincinnati. It could be like a public Indy 500 for the everyday guy.

My biggest concern would be the ability to negotiate a way to close down a major highway loop that crosses three different states for a period of 4 daylight hours. If that could be done, the rest would be perfectly feasible, I think. And, if it could be pulled off once, the second year would be bigger, better, and easier just because a lot of the complexities would have already been worked out.

So, if anyone from Cincinnati town council or Hamilton County is reading this, please consider this idea; I think it would be at least an interesting thing to attempt. Heck, Cincinnati once proposed to be the site of the summer Olympics. This race wouldn't be one-tenth that much cost or effort, yet might still accomplish many of the same goals for the city and the region.

Posted by Craig in Cars and Industry and Society / Politics and Travel
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May 15, 2007

Aryan Girl: Niche Marketing Taken to Its Logical Extreme

Posted by Craig in Industry and Other and Society / Politics
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May 9, 2007

Calling 'Shenanigans' on Sprint Wireless

Over the weekend on a work trip, the headset jack on my 700p started acting up and the unit was going to have to be replaced.

When I went to my local Sprint store Tuesday evening, they told me, sorry...I would have to go to a special Sprint store that had a technician in it. The nearest one was several miles away.

So, today, at 11:30am, I show up at the Sprint store. I wait 20 minutes just to talk to someone. I give him my phone to hand to the tech to verify that it was, indeed, a bad headset jack. 15 minutes later, the tech verifies that as the problem and says he can't fix it. No sweat, I say, since (a) it's still under Palm's 1-year warranty, and (b) I have the phone repair/replacement warranty on top of that. So, I expect them to hand me a replacement 700p.

Nope. Sales dude Jeff tells me that they have no Treo 700p's in stock and they have to get it from the warehouse, which takes 3-5 days. In the meantime, I will just have to use the wired headset whenever I want to make or receive a call or check my voicemail (which is the only way they'll alert me that my replacement phone is available).

However, I get back to my office today and call the store. I talk to sales dude Mike and ask if they have any 700p's in stock. He cheerily tells me that they have several 700p's in the store and to come on in and pick one up (they're open until 9pm!).

So, what's up, Sprint? I'm paying you nearly $100 a month plus a $6 per month replacement service fee just so you can make me wait an extra 3-5 days while you'll give a new customer my phone today? Sprint sucks.

It's really no wonder that a recent MSN-Zogby poll ranked Sprint as having the worst customer service across all industries. It's times like this that I really miss T-Mobile.

Update: I called Sprint's telephone support and they said they weren't sure why the store said what it did, but that I could go back to the store and ask to speak to the manager. Rather than driving clear up there again tonight, I called and was told that the phones in stock in the store were new phones and that they couldn't give out new phones for replacements (only refurbished models are available for existing customers). I asked the girl if she thought that giving better service to a potential Sprint customer (e.g., someone wanting to sign up for service and buy a 700p outright, who would be handed a new phone immediately) than a current Sprint customer (e.g., me) was the right thing to do. She said, "I'm not going to answer that." Yes, welcome to Sprint...ethics optional.

Posted by Craig in Industry and Mobile & PDAs and Phones and Wireless
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April 9, 2007

Cameraphone Photo-Sharing Declines

According to TWICE, a recent study suggests that phone-based photo-sharing is declining:

Camera Phone Image Sharing on Decline
By Greg Scoblete -- TWICE, 4/6/2007 9:24:00 AM

Jackson, Mich. -- Despite a sharp uptick in the number of households with camera phones, fewer consumers than ever are sharing their camera phone images, according to a new study from the Photo Marketing Association.

In a January survey canvassing 5,985 families, 35 percent reported owning a camera phone, up from 26 percent in the previous year. Of that figure, only 24 percent reported sharing images via e-mail or wireless transmission, down from 28 percent in 2005 and 36 percent in 2004.

The percent of camera phone owners who print their images was unchanged at 4 percent.

More than 80 percent of camera phones on the market are under 2-megapixels, PMA said.

I see two likely reasons for this trend (if it is, indeed, an actual trend). First, cameras are increasingly found in all manner of phones, from the priciest smartphones to the freebie disposables you get with a new contract. That means a wider variety of individuals are using cameraphones. So, given that a camera in one's phone may be a new feature to many who have it now for the first time, they may be less familiar and less likely to use it. Also, many who now have cameraphones got the phone with no intention of using the camera function -- it just happened to have a camera in it. Both of these user demographics factors would tend to lower the percentage of cameraphone owners who actually share photos with the cameraphones.

Second, and perhaps more sinister, is how difficult, cumbersome, and unpleasant most carriers have made it to actually share photos using their cameraphones. Take Sprint, for example. In order to share a photo from my phone, I have to submit it through the Sprint's proprietary Picture Mail service. Once uploaded, say, via MMS, the recipient gets a text message pointing him to a URL (yes, a website!) at which the photo can be viewed. This requires starting an actual web browser and burning through lots of overhead packets downloading things like menus, background images, etc. Despite having a perfectly good MMS application in my Treo and my wife's Treo, both on Sprint, we can't simply MMS a photo to each other. Instead, it either has to go through Sprint's craptastic Picture Mail service, or we just have to email it as an attachment. Instead of simply using the functions that most phone-makers have already embedded in the handsets themselves, carriers' desire to control every aspect of the usage experience generally tends to harm the user's experience and destroy value for their customers.

While the demographic trend may ultimately push these numbers down fairly low, the carriers could easily help reverse the trend somewhat by opening up picture-messaging the same way that most have done with SMS/text messaging. Open standards promote use and foster innovation, both of which benefit the carriers nearly as much as they benefit their customers.

Posted by Craig in Industry and Mobile & PDAs and Photography
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April 8, 2007

Zune Media Players Now Under $200

This from a well-known online electronics merchant (that I don't particularly want to promote), down 20% from the Zune's original price of $249 just a few months ago:

Economics tells us that things in high demand rarely see significant drops in price.

Posted by Craig in Industry and Mobile & PDAs and Music & Audio
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April 3, 2007

Daily Kos Gives Good Advice to Traditional Media

Sometimes a blog entry is written so well and expresses such insight that you know it didn't come from GearBits you just have to pass the word. Daily Kos, that bastion of frothing-at-the-mouth ultra-liberalism, has a short article that offers some pretty solid advice to the old media -- you know, newspapers, network news, etc.

Why do you think blogs are so popular? Because people don't believe they can trust you. They don't believe you're interested in telling them stories that are important. They've seen one too many newscasts lead off with stories of idiot celebrities and their latest sex tape. One too many story screaming 'tune in at 11 or your children may die from a common cleaning agent that's in your home!' One too many editorial explaining why the last 999 editorials have been right -- even when all the evidence shows they were dead wrong.

No one -- and I mean no one -- trusts you.

But it's still not too late. It can be fixed. As with most things worth doing, the rules are simple, though following them is not.

Read the rest...

Posted by Craig in Industry
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April 1, 2007

Time Warner Cable Fined for Bad Customer Service

According to Consumerist, Time Warner Cable was recently fined $25,000 for providing crappy service:

Time Warner has, for a period of time, not lived up to the obligations that are required for the citizens of this community.

Given that Time Warner Cable is notorious for bad service, I'm surprised more cities aren't doing this with TWC and other consistently bad service firms. Well, no, actually I'm not surprised...just reminded how little most governments actually care about their constituents.

Posted by Craig in Industry
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March 16, 2007

Steve Jobs Knows Tech, Not Finances

CNNMoney.com has an interesting piece on Steve Jobs' recent Apple stock and options dealings. It not only shows that Jobs didn't artificially manipulate or inflate his worth, it shows he did the exact opposite: make financially unenlightened decisions that literally cost him piles of money (over a billion in personal wealth by the article's estimates).

But the thing I thought was most interesting in the article was this insight:

Though Jobs is considered one of Silicon Valley's leading egomaniacs, which is saying something, he had virtually no faith in his own abilities. When he wrote us that letter, he knew something the rest of the world didn't: that in a few months he would stand on a stage and introduce a new product called the iPod. Yet he not only insisted his options were worthless but put his money where his mouth was two years later and made a trade that will be immortalized as one of the worst ever.

It has been proven time and again that some, if not most, of the most successful and innovative leaders have, ironically, relatively little confidence in their future success. I think it may very well be this same lack of confidence that helps them to be so successful. The overly confident are prone to overlooking significant risks and/or challenges and often fail to adequately plan for contingencies. Intelligent leaders who feel they are on the brink of failure tend to make their plans much more robust, helping to gird up their chances of success even when their chances may already be quite high.

So, to those would-be entrepreneurs and innovators out there, don't ever stop being paranoid about failure. Comfort is a luxury you simply can't afford (at least not until you've exercised those options and diversified your portfolio).

Posted by Craig in Industry
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March 11, 2007

Browser Shares at GearBits.com: Firefox is HUGE

I just checked the Browser Share figures for GearBits (and my personal site, craigfroehle.com, which makes up a teensy fraction of all logged traffic) over the past month and wow! At roughly a quarter of all visitors to GearBits, Firefox's figures are enormous here, especially when combined with Safari, compared to larger averages (some of which, for example, put IE still at 80% or more overall share). GearBits' readers must be a rather intelligent group! :-)

Posted by Craig in Computing and Industry and Internet
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March 4, 2007

US Copyright Royalty Board Effectively Kills Off Internet Radio

The newly passed royalty rates, some of which are (incredibly) retroactive, for online music broadcasting are patently ridiculous. Wired's coverage outlines many of the ways these new rates will effectively demolish online broadcasting for US-based companies.

The new rates force webcasters to pay for each song streamed to each user, and increase over the next few years as follows:

2006: $0.0008 to stream one song to one listener
2007: $.0011
2008: $.0014
2009: $.0018
2010: $.0019

Those fees will add up quickly for larger webcasters; the Radio and Internet Newsletter (RAIN) calculates that, assuming that the average station plays 16 songs per hour, sites would have to pay "about 1.28 cents" per listener per hour using the 2006 rate, and would owe this retroactively, in addition to licensing fees going forward.

This is very, very bad, especially for small- and medium-sized webcasters like our beloved WOXY.com. Also, you have to realize that these rates don't even include royalties paid to the original writer/composer of the work being broadcast; the rates above are just to the recording artist!

It makes me wonder exactly how much those fogeys on the CRB get paid by the RIAA. Sure, not directly -- they're not that dumb -- but gifts to friends and family and the occasional perk indirectly sponsored by the RIAA are, I'm sure, part and parcel of the assignment. After all, if it's not bribery, how do you explain a ruling so lopsidedly in favor of industry at the expense of consumers and to the detriment of innovation?

Posted by Craig in Industry and Music & Audio and Society / Politics
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February 19, 2007

XM and Sirius To Merge

The two satellite radio firms will eventually operate as one, but not until the deal has been OK'd by all the necessary agencies and the financials are worked out.

I hate to say I told you so (even two years ago)...

Posted by Craig in Industry
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January 25, 2007

NBC's Anti-Piracy Efforts Toss Out Baby with Bathwater

NBC is actively pursuing individuals who use the BitTorrent peer-to-peer network to acquire episodes of TV shows NBC owns. NBC's primary tactic of the moment is to find active torrents of these shows and identify the IP addresses of anyone sharing (uploading) any piece of the "offending" file.

Given that it's relatively easy to associate IP addresses of seeders with the ISPs who are providing that Internet address, NBC likely has a small army of interns and co-op students busily tracking these networks. Once they locate an offense, they issue a boilerplate letter containing the specifics (IP address, date, time, file, etc.) to the ISP, which is then supposed to take preventative measures against the offending IP address user.

There are (at least) two significant problems with this approach.

One reason is attribution; just because an IP address is associated with offending activity, it is not necessarily the account holder, or even someone associated with him, that is engaging in the activity. As we all know, wireless networks are inherently insecure and easily tapped into in most cases by someone with even a modicum of know-how. Beyond that, many types of malware tap into peer-to-peer networks without the PC owner even remotely aware that it's happening. Punishing the account holder in either of these situations seems difficult to justify, indeed.

But that's not even the biggest problem with the tactic NBC is currently taking.

An even more ridiculous problem is that NBC is essentially undermining its own business model. By asking ISPs to terminate the accounts of users who download an episode of, say, Battlestar Galactica, this makes several things happen.

First, it causes ill will with consumers of its programming; swearing off watching any particular show because the studio is making your life difficult (and switching ISPs can be a royal pain-in-the-ass) is not a great stretch, especially when TV watching in general is already on the decline. This reduces its viewer base and reduces potential ad revenues.

Second, canceling the Internet access of those who watch your TV show that way effectively eliminates them from your potential customer base entirely. Instead of coercing them into some more desirable activity, such as paying for and downloading the episodes through iTunes, these individuals now have no Internet access whatsoever, so they won't be getting the content either way (free or paid). This further erodes the potential customer base for any legitimate online offering.

So, through its simple-minded pursuit of file-sharers, NBC is basically undermining its very ability to monetize new programming. Maybe there are enough people watching the episodes of a given show straight through, commercials and all, to support these programs. But for shows appealing to young people and nerds (e.g., Battlestar Galactica), I doubt it. If these watchers aren't viewing directly off a TiVo/DVR (and skipping the ads), they're watching an MPEG-4 copy they ripped from their DVR or downloaded from the Internet. Sure, some might be buying them off iTunes, but given all the DRM attached to that method, the cost there would have to be a lot closer to free to make it worth considering.

NBC, like all the major networks, needs to shed its ideas that a 1980's business model is still viable. The Internet is not going away, no matter how hard they wish it would. Better to embrace the new challenges than resist them altogether and wake up one day to realize that you've joined the buggy-whip manufacturers as an icon of anachronistic industries.

Posted by Craig in Computing and Industry and Society / Politics
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January 22, 2007

Copyrights in the US: Where Common Sense and Common Law Fail to Overlap

Imagine this scenario:

Amy pays her cable company to deliver television service to the digital video recorder (DVR) she rents from the same company. Amy programs her DVR to record the entire series of a particular TV show. One week, however, the cable goes out (as it's wont to do) and her DVR fails to record an episode.

So, Amy visits the website of the broadcaster and discovers that the company doesn't offer downloads of its episodes. Amy then finds out that she can pay $2 for the right to download and play (for a limited number of times and only under certain circumstances) the episode she missed. Amy also discovers that she could alternately download a copy of the missing episode for free from a peer-to-peer network.

Does Amy have a right to view the content that was delivered to her (but that her DVR failed to capture) without paying for it again? The TV network, as the copyright holder of the show in question, feels that Amy does not have such a right, and it will apparently pursue her through her ISP for copyright infringment if she goes about grabbing the show from a P2P network. However, if the network can get Amy to cough up $2, it's more than happy to let her have a copy of the episode.

But what about the cable company? Shouldn't it be the one to pay the network for Amy's episode? After all, it was a failure with the cable company's network/equipment that lead to this situation in the first place, isn't it? But Amy is smart enough to realize that getting her cable company to reimburse her $2 for an episode download is quite unlikely.

And what about "fair use?" This concept has little relevance to this situation, unfortunately (at least as I understand it; IANAL), so Amy is basically up a creek.

Why has US copyright law allowed such a situation to occur? Lobbyists for the networks (e.g., NBC), their parent companies (GE), and various affiliated organizations (e.g., the RIAA and the MPAA) have simply done an excellent job at buying our publicly elected officials. And guess where the money comes from for these lobbying efforts? Yep...that $2 Amy now needs to pay the network to see her missing episode. How convenient.

Maybe the best solution is, after all, swearing off corporate content altogether. Independent and foreward-thinking artists, be they music acts, filmmakers, or authors, tend to be much more encouraging of free dissemination of their work. Maybe they do it primarily for the joy of creation rather than the money. Maybe they don't need to support an army of lawyers, country club memberships for everyone in the C-level executive suite, and fuel for corporate jets. Maybe, just maybe, they know what the corporations have forgotten: copyrights are meant to foster, rather than inhibit, innovation.

Whatever the cause, the effects are clear: Amy will consume less TV the harder and/or more expensive it becomes. Frankly, TV isn't all that terrific anyway, and the creative power of the networked masses has yet to be fully realized.

Posted by Craig in Industry and Popular Media and Society / Politics
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January 19, 2007

The Death of eBay

It seems that 2007 may be the year eBay's undisputed reign as king of the secondary market begins to crumble.

Until recently, I was a fairly satisfied eBay user. Like many, I found their fees to border on the usurious, but since transactions nearly always went through and the most buyers were found there (as any economist will tell you, the bigger the pool of buyers, the better the seller's price will be), I continued to sell things there. Not a lot...a printer here and an antique something-or-other there...maybe 40 items over 8 years.

But recently, as I've begun documenting in another post, scammers are starting to make it nearly impossible to execute a high-value transaction on eBay. Electronics, especially, seem targeted by scam artists who, once they win an auction, ask you to ship it to Nigeria or some other suspicious destination.

What eBay clearly needs is a better authentication system and a way for sellers to screen their bidders more effectively. But, I seriously doubt eBay will do that. Despite charging sellers a final value fee, which is essentially taking a commission on the sale, eBay is quite clear that it wants nothing to do with the actual transaction that follows the sale. Sure, it will engage its PayPal subsidiary to help transfer funds, but given that PayPal, or PayPal phishing attempts, are now an effective tool for these same scammers, that doesn't help much.

So, I predict that something will arise fairly soon as a viable competitor for eBay. Let's hope it is better at building secure communities.

Update (3/3/07): MSNBC has an interesting article detailing the recent upsurge in eBay scams and how little the company seems to be able to do about it. I think we're witnessing one of the biggest, fastest devastations of an industry leader ever.

Posted by Craig in Industry and Internet
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January 2, 2007

GearBits' Predictions for 2007

As per tradition (OK, for at least the third time), here are my predictions for the upcoming year, 2007:

1) Apple's iPod continues PMP domination
Thought I'd start off with a safe one. Yep, I don't think too many would argue that the iPod is poised to remain the de facto standard in portable media players. Given that the #1 seller in Amazon's electronics category during the 2006 holiday season was the iPod by a significant margin, and given that accessories for all other PMPs combined amount to about 1/100th of what's available for the iPod, there's really no doubt that newcomers will have a hard time challenging the king, despite any technical advantages.

2) 802.11n gets ratified and gear floods to market
802.11n, the next generation of that family of wireless networking standards, has been forever in getting off the ground. 2007 should see its final certification, opening the gates to loads of networking hardware compliant to the new standard.

3) Film cameras all but disappear from electronics stores
While you'll still be able to find cheap disposables, it will become nearly impossible to find any mainstream electronics retailer selling more than one or two token models. $99 digital cameras from recognizable brands will become commonplace.

4) Nintendo tops Sony and Microsoft as gaming overlord
Not a big leap here, but Nintendo, through its Wii and DS lines, will lead all brands in game unit sales in 2007. Sony will retain the crown of technological leader (and work though its Blu-Ray production issues), and Microsoft will continue to play the spoiler in the industry.

5) TiVo is acquired
If this prediction was good enough to be wrong in 2006, then it's good enough for 2007 as well.

6) Google launches the GooglePhone
Google, in partnership with some handheld maker and/or carrier, will launch a branded QWERTY smartphone that natively runs its main offerings (e.g., Gmail, Google Docs, Google Maps, Google Talk, etc.). Maybe I'm predicting this purely out of desire -- I so want such a device -- but I do think it will happen eventually.

7) eBay sells Skype
You heard it here first. Or maybe you didn't. Either way, this is a long-shot prediction, but I think Meg Whitman is smart enough to realize that Skype is worth more to eBay when it's owned by somebody else.

8) Palm brings Jeff Hawkins back to reinvent Treo line
The current Treo line is getting a bit long in the tooth (not to mention the now-ancient Palm OS, which Palm just repurchased the permanent rights to) and its sales are likely getting pinched by slimmer, more aesthetically appealing (while not as functional, but a lot of people by phones based on looks...kind of like how they pick boy/girlfriends in college) offerings from Motorola and others. So, since Palm doesn't seem capable of designing anything anyone wants to buy on its own, the company will announce that Jeff Hawkins is coming back to help lead the development of the next-generation Treo. And many will ask, "What took you so long?"

9) HD-DVD and Blu-Ray persist; nobody cares
More devices will be available at cheaper prices, but sales of both players and media will continue to be tepid. Not only is renting becoming the dominant mode of DVD acquisition, but the current quality of standard dual-layer DVDs is perfectly adequate for 99% of the population. Maybe in a few years, the proliferating 1080p sets will drive people to want high-def movies, but it won't be as rapid an adoption rate as the original DVD was.

10) Robots become sentient, destroy all of humanity
On a related note, iRobot's stock price will double in 2007 as a result of strong sales and the announcement that a first-gen AI will take over as President and CEO.

Have a good year, everyone!

Posted by Craig in Computing and Gaming and Home A/V and Industry and Internet and Mobile & PDAs and Phones and Photography and Society / Politics and Technology
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January 1, 2007

Revisiting My Predictions for 2006

Since I made a series of predictions for 2006, I thought I'd go back and see how many actually came true.

1) Google Launches All-in-One Suite
I've been expecting this for some time, as have other folks, I'm sure, but I think 2006 will definitely see this announcement. Google will, I predict, launch a converged, multi-purpose, browser-based work environment -- lord knows what it'll be called, maybe GoogleDesk or something like that. Anyway, it will incorporate and integrate many of the disparate services that Google currently offers plus add a few. GoogleDesk will integrate Google search, Gmail (plus an enhanced contacts management function), Google Maps (auto-mapping of contacts, natch!), Blogger (for publication/hosting of created content), a new mini-suite of document tools based on the OpenOffice standard (so you can create word processor documents, spreadsheets, and presentation files), GoogleBase (the use of which will become more obvious with time), and Google News (of course). All these will be wrapped up in a browser-neutral (although I wouldn't be surprised for Google to cozy up to Mozilla to enhance Firefox with some special goodies), Java-based interface. Personally, I eagerly await this.

Kinda, sorta true. Google's offerings did indeed multiply in 2006, with Google Documents and a raft of other new and enhanced online services popping up. Technically, they haven't all been integrated into a single UI, but given they all work in a single browser session, that's pretty close.

2) The HD-DVD/Blu-Ray war ends...Blu-Ray wins
Yes, Sony will finally be able to claim a victory in the format wars. After so many failed attempts at ruling the world (cue Pinkie and the Brain theme) -- Betamax, minidisc, all the various flavors of Memory Stick, etc. -- Sony and friends will edge out the HD-DVD group and Blu-Ray will become the de facto format for HD content. That is, until something better comes along almost immediately, but hey, that's a prediction for next year.

The war ain't over, but I think most people who follow the industry would agree that Blu-Ray, despite Sony's floundering on the PS3, has more behind it than does HD-DVD at this point. It will likely take a few more years for the winner to become obvious -- until then, consumers will just be faced with more options they couldn't really care less about. After all, normal DVD looks pretty good on an HDTV and more people are choosing to take their video with them on the go; high-definition is the least of concerns for the joe wanting to watch Family Guy on his iPod.

3) The Linux-based replacement for Palm OS comes out
To limited acclaim in the West, it is immediately adopted by a significant number of Asian companies for its cheap, flexible architecture. The number of devices (almost entirely phones) running it by the end of 2006 will be around 10 in Asia and zero (maybe 1 or 2) in the West (US + Europe).

Wrong. Well, ALP (Access Linux for Palm) was released, but I've yet to hear of any actual adoption, so I'll just have to chalk this up to pure optimism.

4) Nokia will launch a Linux phone
Following the nascent success of its Linux-based 770 Internet Tablet, Nokia launches its first phone using a Linux-based OS. It mimics the S60 in look and feel. It does well, but not markedly so, causing much speculation and debate around the web about whether Nokia is abandoning S60 entirely.

Nope, didn't happen.

5) Democrats regain control of US Senate, make gains in HOR
The margin won't be enormous, but the Senate will once again be in the familiar (and, arguably, beneficial to the electorate) position of being led by the party not in control of the White House. More negotiation will result in 2007 and something a wee bit closer to "democracy" will return to the US shortly thereafter. Still a long way from acceptable, but closer.

Pretty much right on the money. In fact, you might say I underestimated their gains. Looking forward to a government much more balanced by checks and balances than it has been lately.

6) Windows Vista will launch, Apple users yawn
Windows Vista (launched in early Q4) will excite few, especially in the corporate ranks, due to the combination of a lack of "must-have" improvements and unattractive licensing structures offered by Microsoft. The 17 or so flavors of Vista will also leave consumers puzzled over which version is best for them and ultimately wait until they replace their hardware to upgr