Each year, we at GearBits post some predictions for the coming year. And then, in the interest of honesty, fairness, and self-deprecation, we take a look back to see how we did. Each of our predictions for 2008 are listed below, along with an update on what actually happened.
1) Blu-Ray Wins the Format War
Yep, I'm going to pick a winner and it's going to be Blu-Ray. The one-two punch of Warner Brothers's move to Blu-Ray exclusivity (from its Switzerland-like neutrality of supporting both formats) later in 2008 and Apple's announcement that BD will be the only HD format available in its products will cement HD DVD's demise. And none too soon. I don't really care which wins...just make it snappy so that prices on players and media can plummet, thanks.
As of now, the end of 2008, it seems like forever since Blu-Ray trounced HD DVD in the format war. But back in early January, it was anyone's guess. But then, on February 18th, Toshiba officially threw in the towel. Interestingly, the Warner Bros. move I thought would happen eventually was actually announced the day after I posted my predictions. Of course, Apple hasn't yet released any products with any form of HD optical drive, so that bit wasn't exactly spot on. And I'm still waiting for my $99 Blu-Ray player. But, overall, this prediction looks pretty solid.
2) Google's Android Shakes Up Phone Industry
For a while now, the cellphone industry has been fairly static. A few smartphone and mobile OS makers have generally tussled for market share, but the overall industry has been pretty evolutionary. Google's entry will prove to be a watershed moment, with open source finally making a big impact in the handheld space (and no, I don't consider the Zaurus to be a big deal...sorry). Actual handsets running Android will be announced, if not available, before the end of 2008.
Depending on your threshold for "shaking up" the phone industry, I think most people would agree that Android made quite a splash in 2008 when the HTC G1 was launched on T-Mobile in the US on September 23rd. And we've already heard of around a dozen hardware makers signed on to release Android handsets. While handset sales still pale in comparison to the iPhone, 2009 looks like it just might be the year of the Android.
3) Palm Supports Android
This is more of a hope than an actual prediction, as I just don't know whether the egos at Palm will let the company do the right thing and admit that their next-generation OS (which has been under development since 2004!) will be a viable contender against Android (which has essentially the same technical details but scads more developer support). But, if cooler, more rational heads prevail at Palm, they'll announce that they're plans will be to produce at least one Android-based product (probably to come out sometime in 2012 :-/ ).
Ouch...I couldn't have been more wrong. While I still think Palm would have been smart to advance their product refurbishment by a full year (maybe more) by going with Android instead of continuing to pursue Nova, the company stuck to its original, go-it-alone plans. We'll see how well that pans out in 2009.
4) Microsoft's HD Photo Replacement for JPEG Image Standard Goes Nowhere
I'm not saying it's a bad idea technically; I'm just saying that JPEG is so entrenched now that replacing it would be about as reasonable a thing to try as would be replacing MP3 with any of the multitudes of better formats. JPEG, like MP3, isn't great, but it's adequate (at least for consumers) and ubiquitous. We'll still be saving all our photos in JPG (and maybe RAW) at the end of 2008...and likely long after that.
JPEG XR, the official name of Microsoft's HD Photo format, has generated essentially zero traction in the camera industry. Part of that is Microsoft's less-than-swift transition of JPEG XR into its quasi-open licensing portfolio, a move that will have to happen for camera makers and developers to trust that they won't be bitten by huge licensing fees in the future if they move their products away from RAW to JPEG XR.
5) Subnotes Will Explode in Availability (and Maybe Popularity)
I've always been a fan of tiny, sub-3-pound laptops, but I think 2008 will see a huge number of these clamshell devices come out of every corner of the consumer electronics space. The Asus EeePC and the OLPC XO Laptop are two examples. While Microsoft had a good idea in its UMPC (Ultra-Mobile PC) concept, the hardware was just never executed all that well. Frankly, I think a 7" touchscreen for Windows is just too difficult. But, going with the traditional clamshell design and using cheaper and/or smaller technologies (e.g., flash memory instead of a HDD) will bring us a raft of interesting (and some good) designs at <$500 price points. Bring 'em on! And I think we'll start to see a lot more people toting these things along that traditionally avoided laptops for whatever reason (cost, weight, etc.).
Bingo. If the shelves at Best Buy and Circuit City are any indication, these "netbooks" (the now-favored term...at least by everyone except Psion) have multiplied faster than Tribbles on Cialis. One glance at the huuuge list of netbooks over at small-notebooks.com is enough evidence to suggest that this prediction was spot on.
6) The GPS War Heats Up
TomTom, Nokia, and Garmin will exchange hostile fire over the GPS market due to convuluted agreements regarding mapping data as well as market-share for hardware. Products will continue to decline in price and improve in functionality, and >50% of cellphones will have some form of GPS functionality available on them. I guess that's two predictions in one...oh well.
I'm going to give myself this one. While we haven't heard that much more about the complex licensing agreements involving the big three, you need only walk through a Staples, Radio Shack, or Target to see a vast assortment of portable GPS units now available for under $150, most even having text-to-speech and other advanced functions. That's in direct comparison to late last year, when it was difficult to find a decent unit for under $300.
7) DRM Hits Choppy Water
2007 saw some movement away from DRM (digital rights management), especially in the music industry, but I expect we'll see similar initiatives in all areas of media. DRM has been proven again and again to be little more than an expensive technological boondoggle, and the leading innovators at the consumer media interface (e.g., Apple, Amazon, and Google) will make some headway into reversing the trend of more encumbrance for our media. The RIAA and MPAA will continue to fight it...they know how to do nothing else...but economic results will start to demonstrate that DRM actually hurts profitability.
Nope...we didn't hear much consistent with my prediction. While some markets moved towards offering DRM-free downloads, most are still heavily laden. And the RIAA actually reversed its strategy and is now no longer suing everyone and their mother for alleged downloading. So that's two different ways I was off on this one. Just goes to show that there's no telling what the content owners are thinking.
8) Major Tech Stocks End 2008 Up Significantly
These are bound to be wrong, but what the heck...nobody pays me for stock tips. I think Apple will end 2008 at 235, Google will be at 960, and Microsoft will finish the year at 50. As for other stocks, iRobot will end up at either 46 or 12 (can you tell I'm a cynical shareholder?), IBM will show tepid growth to 112, and RIM, hurt by the continued weak US dollar and facing increasing competition, will struggle to match its 1-year high of 127.
Uh, no. While I doubt many saw the massive downturn in stocks coming, tech stocks are decidedly not even slightly better off than most. Let's see how my specific price predictions held up:
Apple (AAPL): Predicted = 235; Actual = 86.29
Google (GOOG): Predicted = 960; Actual = 303.11
Microsoft (MSFT): Predicted = 50; Actual = 19.34
iRobot (IRBT): Predicted = 46 or 12; Actual = 8.95
IBM (IBM): Predicted = 112; Actual = 83.55
Research in Motion (RIMM): Predicted = 127; Actual = 38.77
In summary, do not ask me to manage your stock portfolio...you would be better served by setting your money on fire, as then you could at least stay warm for a while.
9) I Buy a New Laptop and Am Disappointed
My Panasonic CF-W2 is now three-and-a-half-years-old and I'm starting to cringe every time I turn it on (my luck with hard drives makes me skeptical of many living past their 4th birthday). I've been looking at possible replacements (e.g., Toshiba R500, Panasonic W7, maybe the Lenovo IdeaPad U110 or the rumored Apple subnote) and so far every single one has some significant trade-offs. So, I expect I'll get one and it will turn out to be not significantly better than my aging Toughbook. You'd think in nearly four years that two grand would buy something markedly superior. We'll see...
Unfortunately, I was right on this. The Fujitsu LifeBook P8010 I ended up purchasing in February is a good laptop...don't get me wrong. It's just not a heads-and-shoulders better laptop than my ToughBook was, and that's what I was expecting given the nearly 4 years newer technology and the $2500 it cost. And, given that I've already had to send it in for a repair (the power button broke off), I'm guessing the durability won't even come close to that of the Panasonic (which I still use regularly around the house).
10) Major Changes in Automotive Industry Announced
While the car business makes actual change only very slowly, we'll see some huge announcements in 2008 that will fundamentally change the future of that industry. Things like record oil prices, an increasing attention to sustainable/green technology, and significant ownership changes will substantially change the competitive landscape. Make no mistake; Toyota will continue its ascent and eclipse GM as #1 car-maker in the world. But, we will see several major announcements that will start affecting actual consumers in 2009 and beyond.
While I didn't get the stock predictions exactly right (OK, not even close), I think it's safe to say that the US automotive industry has been shaken up with major changes during 2008. We saw record oil prices (check!), more attention to green tech (check!), and the bottom dropping out of US consumption didn't leave them anywhere to go except to the Congress for help. And Toyota did indeed become the biggest carmaker in the world in 2008, just as predicted. Let's hope the Volt truly is something special...for all our sakes.
So, there you have it: our final score is 7 winners and 3 losers. I'll take it. :-)
In a couple of days, I'll be posting GearBits' predictions for 2009, so make sure you come back and check those out, m'kay?

Time.com
It's hard being a visionary; nobody knows you're right until well after you did, and by then it may be too late.

Edmunds.com
But, who would those 180 racers be? Well, we'd need to make sure that they know how to drive, so they would have to show that their cars are road-legal and pass a full race safety inspection (a la SCCA rules). But that would still leave thousands aching for a chance to blast through closed highways at ridiculous speeds.
While at Target earlier today looking for something else entirely, I stumbled upon the VRFM3 FM Transmitter by Virtual Reality Sound Labs. What caught my eye about this FM transmitter is the fact that it will play MP3 and WMA files directly from either a flash drive inserted into its USB port or an Secure Digital (SD) card inserted into its SD slot (see below). Of course, there's also a line-in jack for transmitting audio from another source (e.g., an iPod or Treo), but this is the first unit I've seen to offer both USB and SD interfaces. So, excited by the prospect of easy, cheap, portable, and completely wire-free tunage for any car I happen to be in, I plunked down my $49.99 and headed home to put the VRFM9 through its paces.
After an initial test, I'm very impressed by how well this device works. It does exactly what you would expect, if not hope, it to do, which, unfortunately, seems to be a rarity in consumer electronics. Plus, even more a rarity are the extensive written instructions (including color diagrams) that came with the device.
First, I tried the typical external input mode with my Treo 700p as source. The VRFM9 automatically detects which source is hooked up (if music is available by more than one source, priority goes first to the external line-in, then to the USB port, then last to the SD card slot; the unit will only play music from one source) and transmits that via one of its 15 preset FM channels (8 in the low range and 7 in the high range...enough to satisfy nearly everyone nearly all the time). The two-line LCD (at right) offers some information about the FM channel being used, play mode (normal v. shuffle), source, etc. If the unit is playing an MP3 or WMA file straight off USB or SD card, it will display the artist and song title as well (assuming these tags are present in the audio file). It's a bit cryptic and not a lot of characters appear at once, but given that you likely won't be interacting a lot with this device, it's certainly adequate, if not surprisingly nice. One nice UI touch is that when you switch tracks or change the volume, the display changes to show extra-large characters (e.g., "011/045" to let you know you're on track 11 of 45 total tracks on that source) for enhanced readability.
According to an interesting article in 







The Toyota Prius (yes, the hybrid car, shown) tracks your gas mileage over time. As you drive, your driving habits (lead-footing it, slow acceleration, etc.) affect your gas mileage. 
It snowed 3 inches here last evening and the overnight temperature hovered in the single digits -- even road salt doesn't work that well at this temperature. Needless to say, the roads were pretty messy. My 968 doesn't do so well in these conditions (no surprise there) and it got me thinking about what tech I'd like on a car. Here's a short list:




This year, I started doing something I've wanted to do for a long time: race my car. I'm no Paul Newman, and I don't own a track car, so the most reasonable type of racing I can expect to do is something called autocross (or auto-X) or Solo II, depending on who you talk to.




The very last rear-engined Beetle to be produced rolled off the assembly line at a Volkswagen plant in Puebla, Mexico. Its production spans eight decades, and over 21 million units were produced. It's truly the end of an era.
Ohio is infamous for being a bit overzealous with its enforcement of speed-related traffic laws. Speeding tickets are handed out by the thousands every day from the Ohio state patrol, county sheriffs, city police, village police, township police, constables, detectives, park rangers (yes, really) and who knows who else. It's no wonder the Escort, Passport and the Valentine 1 were all invented here in the Buckeye state.

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