January 2007 Archives

Our home theater PC -- the one labeled "HTPC" in this diagram -- died today. The boot drive, an old 40GB PATA drive, emitted the spiraling whine of death and failed to restart. R.I.P. old friend.

So, what should I replace it with? Or should I even bother at all? We basically used it for serving up MP3s to our SMC EZ-Stream audio streamer. But since I run Orb on another PC in the house that has a copy of all our media, and Orb acts as a pretty capable UPnP server, we no longer need a local PC to serve up music to the SMC.

We also sometimes occasionally used it to play back XviD and DivX movies to the TV. I suppose I could just hook up the laptop to the TV's VGA input in those rare instances instead.

Since our two TiVos and one Time Warner DVR handle all our time-shifting needs, I'm struggling to figure out just why I need an HTPC after all. Sure, there's the extremely infrequent case where pulling up a browser is handy. But my laptop is rarely more than a few feet away, and that's usually a more convenient alternative than dragging out the Gyration mouse and keyboard.

So, should I even bother with an HTPC? Would something like Apple's forthcoming Apple TV offer me functionality that I just couldn't live without?

Or, should I just fill the empty space in our entertainment cabinet with a Wii?

Decisions, decisions. If you have suggestions, email me at craig DOT froehle AT gmail DOT com. Thanks.

Well, the weird problem with the server getting consumed by oddly constructed Perl commands is back. I think it's either some strange exploit that hackers are attempting or its a poorly formed automated commenting tool that causes Movable Type to get all tied up in knots. I don't really know...regardless, comments are now off again until I get the time and interest in trying to figure out a solution.

NBC is actively pursuing individuals who use the BitTorrent peer-to-peer network to acquire episodes of TV shows NBC owns. NBC's primary tactic of the moment is to find active torrents of these shows and identify the IP addresses of anyone sharing (uploading) any piece of the "offending" file.

Given that it's relatively easy to associate IP addresses of seeders with the ISPs who are providing that Internet address, NBC likely has a small army of interns and co-op students busily tracking these networks. Once they locate an offense, they issue a boilerplate letter containing the specifics (IP address, date, time, file, etc.) to the ISP, which is then supposed to take preventative measures against the offending IP address user.

There are (at least) two significant problems with this approach.

One reason is attribution; just because an IP address is associated with offending activity, it is not necessarily the account holder, or even someone associated with him, that is engaging in the activity. As we all know, wireless networks are inherently insecure and easily tapped into in most cases by someone with even a modicum of know-how. Beyond that, many types of malware tap into peer-to-peer networks without the PC owner even remotely aware that it's happening. Punishing the account holder in either of these situations seems difficult to justify, indeed.

But that's not even the biggest problem with the tactic NBC is currently taking.

An even more ridiculous problem is that NBC is essentially undermining its own business model. By asking ISPs to terminate the accounts of users who download an episode of, say, Battlestar Galactica, this makes several things happen.

First, it causes ill will with consumers of its programming; swearing off watching any particular show because the studio is making your life difficult (and switching ISPs can be a royal pain-in-the-ass) is not a great stretch, especially when TV watching in general is already on the decline. This reduces its viewer base and reduces potential ad revenues.

Second, canceling the Internet access of those who watch your TV show that way effectively eliminates them from your potential customer base entirely. Instead of coercing them into some more desirable activity, such as paying for and downloading the episodes through iTunes, these individuals now have no Internet access whatsoever, so they won't be getting the content either way (free or paid). This further erodes the potential customer base for any legitimate online offering.

So, through its simple-minded pursuit of file-sharers, NBC is basically undermining its very ability to monetize new programming. Maybe there are enough people watching the episodes of a given show straight through, commercials and all, to support these programs. But for shows appealing to young people and nerds (e.g., Battlestar Galactica), I doubt it. If these watchers aren't viewing directly off a TiVo/DVR (and skipping the ads), they're watching an MPEG-4 copy they ripped from their DVR or downloaded from the Internet. Sure, some might be buying them off iTunes, but given all the DRM attached to that method, the cost there would have to be a lot closer to free to make it worth considering.

NBC, like all the major networks, needs to shed its ideas that a 1980's business model is still viable. The Internet is not going away, no matter how hard they wish it would. Better to embrace the new challenges than resist them altogether and wake up one day to realize that you've joined the buggy-whip manufacturers as an icon of anachronistic industries.

Imagine this scenario:

Amy pays her cable company to deliver television service to the digital video recorder (DVR) she rents from the same company. Amy programs her DVR to record the entire series of a particular TV show. One week, however, the cable goes out (as it's wont to do) and her DVR fails to record an episode.

So, Amy visits the website of the broadcaster and discovers that the company doesn't offer downloads of its episodes. Amy then finds out that she can pay $2 for the right to download and play (for a limited number of times and only under certain circumstances) the episode she missed. Amy also discovers that she could alternately download a copy of the missing episode for free from a peer-to-peer network.

Does Amy have a right to view the content that was delivered to her (but that her DVR failed to capture) without paying for it again? The TV network, as the copyright holder of the show in question, feels that Amy does not have such a right, and it will apparently pursue her through her ISP for copyright infringment if she goes about grabbing the show from a P2P network. However, if the network can get Amy to cough up $2, it's more than happy to let her have a copy of the episode.

But what about the cable company? Shouldn't it be the one to pay the network for Amy's episode? After all, it was a failure with the cable company's network/equipment that lead to this situation in the first place, isn't it? But Amy is smart enough to realize that getting her cable company to reimburse her $2 for an episode download is quite unlikely.

And what about "fair use?" This concept has little relevance to this situation, unfortunately (at least as I understand it; IANAL), so Amy is basically up a creek.

Why has US copyright law allowed such a situation to occur? Lobbyists for the networks (e.g., NBC), their parent companies (GE), and various affiliated organizations (e.g., the RIAA and the MPAA) have simply done an excellent job at buying our publicly elected officials. And guess where the money comes from for these lobbying efforts? Yep...that $2 Amy now needs to pay the network to see her missing episode. How convenient.

Maybe the best solution is, after all, swearing off corporate content altogether. Independent and foreward-thinking artists, be they music acts, filmmakers, or authors, tend to be much more encouraging of free dissemination of their work. Maybe they do it primarily for the joy of creation rather than the money. Maybe they don't need to support an army of lawyers, country club memberships for everyone in the C-level executive suite, and fuel for corporate jets. Maybe, just maybe, they know what the corporations have forgotten: copyrights are meant to foster, rather than inhibit, innovation.

Whatever the cause, the effects are clear: Amy will consume less TV the harder and/or more expensive it becomes. Frankly, TV isn't all that terrific anyway, and the creative power of the networked masses has yet to be fully realized.

It seems that 2007 may be the year eBay's undisputed reign as king of the secondary market begins to crumble.

Until recently, I was a fairly satisfied eBay user. Like many, I found their fees to border on the usurious, but since transactions nearly always went through and the most buyers were found there (as any economist will tell you, the bigger the pool of buyers, the better the seller's price will be), I continued to sell things there. Not a lot...a printer here and an antique something-or-other there...maybe 40 items over 8 years.

But recently, as I've begun documenting in another post, scammers are starting to make it nearly impossible to execute a high-value transaction on eBay. Electronics, especially, seem targeted by scam artists who, once they win an auction, ask you to ship it to Nigeria or some other suspicious destination.

What eBay clearly needs is a better authentication system and a way for sellers to screen their bidders more effectively. But, I seriously doubt eBay will do that. Despite charging sellers a final value fee, which is essentially taking a commission on the sale, eBay is quite clear that it wants nothing to do with the actual transaction that follows the sale. Sure, it will engage its PayPal subsidiary to help transfer funds, but given that PayPal, or PayPal phishing attempts, are now an effective tool for these same scammers, that doesn't help much.

So, I predict that something will arise fairly soon as a viable competitor for eBay. Let's hope it is better at building secure communities.

Update (3/3/07): MSNBC has an interesting article detailing the recent upsurge in eBay scams and how little the company seems to be able to do about it. I think we're witnessing one of the biggest, fastest devastations of an industry leader ever.

If you're like me, you are constantly nagged by worries of how much hard drive space you have left on your network. A few years ago, I didn't worry so much...a hard drive wore out before I filled it up.

Now, however, as audio and video files proliferate like Tribbles, they chew through even massive drives in what seems like record time.

To combat this, I keep investing in large internal drives and even larger external drives for the PCs on my home network, as you can see in the diagram below:

As you can also see, those drives that house our media are much, much more full and closer to needing to be upgraded to something bigger. All told, our network has roughly half a terabyte of storage available for media and we're currently using over two-thirds of that. By the end of 2007, I project that we'll be out of space, either on the media storage drives themselves or the backup drives that, er, back them up.

So, what should I do? Continue to invest in local USB2.0 external drives, one (or more) per computer? That's certainly an option, although the complexity of maintaining such a multitude of drives is a concern.

Another option is network attached storage (NAS) -- basically a hard drive with an Ethernet interface that is accessible from any PC on the network. The main problem with that approach is that it's significantly more expensive than local USB storage. For example, a 500GB USB2.0 drive can be had for $180 pretty easily (or $0.36 per GB), whereas the same capacity network device would run roughly double that or more (many popular large-size NAS units run about $1.00 per GB).

However, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. As NAS units become more popular and sell in larger numbers, they also become cheaper and with bigger capacities. The day that NAS functionality adds just a 20% or so premium over non-NAS external storage (versus the nearly 100% it is today) will be a good day...I just wish that day was yesterday.

In an effort to clean out our technology closet, I'm selling a MiniDV camcorder that we just never use: a JVC GR-DVM80U with several extra accessories (2 extra batteries, 2 blank tapes, and a nice camcorder bag).

Check out the eBay auction now.

UPDATE #1 (1/13/07)
Well, I had to re-list this auction as the original auction ended with a fraudulent Buy-It-Now. Here's the email I got from the buyer:

Hello, Compliment of the season to you.I am Mr.Steve Joe., I'm contacting you concerning your item on Ebay which i eventually became the winning bidder for your item.Morever i'm presently serving our beloved nation here in Iraq with the United Nation and i intend sending this item to my son as suprise gift who works with the American Embassy in Lagos,Nigeria as a consular.I will be making my payment to you via PayPal and also i want you to send me the total cost including the cost of shipping to Lagos,Nigeria,So get the package ready for immediate shipment or next day shipment okay?and don't forget to send me your PayPal Email Address so i can immediately make out my payment.Plz i want the item to be shipped via Usps Global Experss Mail(EMS).Mail me back it's urgent. Regards Mr.Steve Joe

Needless to say, that's not legit. To eBay's credit, they refunded me 100% of the fees associated with the original auction and de-registered "Steve Joe" as a user.

What eBay really needs is a way for me to stipulate that I won't accept bids from users with less than a positive feedback rating (currently, ebay only lets you say you won't accept bids from users with negative feedback ratings) or users that have registered within the past month. That would make it tougher on new buyers, but for an item with a likely final value exceeding $100, that seems like a reasonable trade-off to me.

Anyway, the new auction is up...go check it out.

UPDATE #2 (1/18/07)

Well, I've been scammed again. After m_irwin.1, a bidder with +2 feedback and ebay member since 1999, made the high bid on my camcorder, I figured it would be fine.

But then I get his payment notification email:

Micky Irwin wrote: I have made the payment for your item via my paypal account m_irwin01@yahoo.com, get the item ship to my son address as soon as you receive confirmation of payment from paypal. Here is my son address below for verification.

Mr Adewale George Francis
Sw9/241 Araromi Apata Odo Ona
Ibadan
Oyo state
Nigeria
23402
+2348063014998

hope to hear from you soon

Needless to say, this is AGAIN not a legitimate bidder, as m_irwin.1's recent feedback shows.

And this time, even PayPal is being used in the scam (or it's one of the more complex phishing attempts I've seen):

This PayPal payment has been deducted from the buyer's account and has been "APPROVED/DEPOSITED into escrow account" but this is international shipment,your account will not be a credited until the shipment tracking number is sent to us for shipment verification so as to secure both the seller and the buyer. Below are the necessary information requested before your account will be credited. You are to send the shipment tracking number through our customer service helpline (info.paypalcustomeraccount@emailaccount.com), and our customer service care will attend to you. As soon as you send us the shipment's tracking number to us for security purposes and the safety of the buyer and the seller,the money will be credited to your account.Do not send to the buyer the reference/tracking number for the safety of your money. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Shipping Information
Address:
Mr Adewale George Francis
Sw9/241 Araromi Apata Odo Ona
Ibadan
Oyo state
Nigeria
23402.
Address Status: Confirmed

**PLEASE NOTE**
Once shipment has been verified and the tracking number sent,we will verify and credit your account.You will receive a " CONFIRMATION EMAIL " from PayPal informing you that the Money has been credited.The payment has been made under your name

It seems to me that navigating the eBay auction system and then sending a coordinated fake PayPal email would be more work than it's worth for a $175 camcorder. Whatever the case, it's darn irritating.

UPDATE #3 (1/21/07)
I just logged in to my eBay account and noticed something odd. Within a day of my fiasco above (1/18/07), the feedback rating for the scammer m_irwin.1 had sunk to -10 as nearly a dozen victims left negative feedback. Today, however, the seller listed as having won my auction is labeebmile, who only has one negative feedback entry and mine has been removed from his account, leaving him with a feedback rating of +2. What is going on? To make matters even more confusing, my account shows that I left feedback for the winner of the auction (previously, m_irwin.1, but now labeebmile), yet nothing for him shows up when you list my feedback left for others. Obviously, eBay is having some serious issues here. I will hopefully get a full credit for all fees associated with my last auction and will look elsewhere to sell my camcorder. The death of eBay indeed seems imminent.

Is reading all about the 108" Aquos LCD TV from Sharp at CES 2007 getting you down? Just don't have room for a TV that big? Does color hurt your eyes? Do you have money you just don't know how to spend?

Well, Sundance Catalog has you covered. For a mere $850, you can snag yourself a fully restored vintage B&W television (updated to cable-ready, even). Wood cabinets and bulging tube displays from 12" to 21" satisfy your most indulgent retro sensibilities.

If this is on your must-have list, let me know...I have a few vintage cameras in good working order I can let you have for just $400 apiece. ;-)

As per tradition (OK, for at least the third time), here are my predictions for the upcoming year, 2007:

1) Apple's iPod continues PMP domination
Thought I'd start off with a safe one. Yep, I don't think too many would argue that the iPod is poised to remain the de facto standard in portable media players. Given that the #1 seller in Amazon's electronics category during the 2006 holiday season was the iPod by a significant margin, and given that accessories for all other PMPs combined amount to about 1/100th of what's available for the iPod, there's really no doubt that newcomers will have a hard time challenging the king, despite any technical advantages.

2) 802.11n gets ratified and gear floods to market
802.11n, the next generation of that family of wireless networking standards, has been forever in getting off the ground. 2007 should see its final certification, opening the gates to loads of networking hardware compliant to the new standard.

3) Film cameras all but disappear from electronics stores
While you'll still be able to find cheap disposables, it will become nearly impossible to find any mainstream electronics retailer selling more than one or two token models. $99 digital cameras from recognizable brands will become commonplace.

4) Nintendo tops Sony and Microsoft as gaming overlord
Not a big leap here, but Nintendo, through its Wii and DS lines, will lead all brands in game unit sales in 2007. Sony will retain the crown of technological leader (and work though its Blu-Ray production issues), and Microsoft will continue to play the spoiler in the industry.

5) TiVo is acquired
If this prediction was good enough to be wrong in 2006, then it's good enough for 2007 as well.

6) Google launches the GooglePhone
Google, in partnership with some handheld maker and/or carrier, will launch a branded QWERTY smartphone that natively runs its main offerings (e.g., Gmail, Google Docs, Google Maps, Google Talk, etc.). Maybe I'm predicting this purely out of desire -- I so want such a device -- but I do think it will happen eventually.

7) eBay sells Skype
You heard it here first. Or maybe you didn't. Either way, this is a long-shot prediction, but I think Meg Whitman is smart enough to realize that Skype is worth more to eBay when it's owned by somebody else.

8) Palm brings Jeff Hawkins back to reinvent Treo line
The current Treo line is getting a bit long in the tooth (not to mention the now-ancient Palm OS, which Palm just repurchased the permanent rights to) and its sales are likely getting pinched by slimmer, more aesthetically appealing (while not as functional, but a lot of people by phones based on looks...kind of like how they pick boy/girlfriends in college) offerings from Motorola and others. So, since Palm doesn't seem capable of designing anything anyone wants to buy on its own, the company will announce that Jeff Hawkins is coming back to help lead the development of the next-generation Treo. And many will ask, "What took you so long?"

9) HD-DVD and Blu-Ray persist; nobody cares
More devices will be available at cheaper prices, but sales of both players and media will continue to be tepid. Not only is renting becoming the dominant mode of DVD acquisition, but the current quality of standard dual-layer DVDs is perfectly adequate for 99% of the population. Maybe in a few years, the proliferating 1080p sets will drive people to want high-def movies, but it won't be as rapid an adoption rate as the original DVD was.

10) Robots become sentient, destroy all of humanity
On a related note, iRobot's stock price will double in 2007 as a result of strong sales and the announcement that a first-gen AI will take over as President and CEO.

Have a good year, everyone!

Since I made a series of predictions for 2006, I thought I'd go back and see how many actually came true.

1) Google Launches All-in-One Suite
I've been expecting this for some time, as have other folks, I'm sure, but I think 2006 will definitely see this announcement. Google will, I predict, launch a converged, multi-purpose, browser-based work environment -- lord knows what it'll be called, maybe GoogleDesk or something like that. Anyway, it will incorporate and integrate many of the disparate services that Google currently offers plus add a few. GoogleDesk will integrate Google search, Gmail (plus an enhanced contacts management function), Google Maps (auto-mapping of contacts, natch!), Blogger (for publication/hosting of created content), a new mini-suite of document tools based on the OpenOffice standard (so you can create word processor documents, spreadsheets, and presentation files), GoogleBase (the use of which will become more obvious with time), and Google News (of course). All these will be wrapped up in a browser-neutral (although I wouldn't be surprised for Google to cozy up to Mozilla to enhance Firefox with some special goodies), Java-based interface. Personally, I eagerly await this.

Kinda, sorta true. Google's offerings did indeed multiply in 2006, with Google Documents and a raft of other new and enhanced online services popping up. Technically, they haven't all been integrated into a single UI, but given they all work in a single browser session, that's pretty close.

2) The HD-DVD/Blu-Ray war ends...Blu-Ray wins
Yes, Sony will finally be able to claim a victory in the format wars. After so many failed attempts at ruling the world (cue Pinkie and the Brain theme) -- Betamax, minidisc, all the various flavors of Memory Stick, etc. -- Sony and friends will edge out the HD-DVD group and Blu-Ray will become the de facto format for HD content. That is, until something better comes along almost immediately, but hey, that's a prediction for next year.

The war ain't over, but I think most people who follow the industry would agree that Blu-Ray, despite Sony's floundering on the PS3, has more behind it than does HD-DVD at this point. It will likely take a few more years for the winner to become obvious -- until then, consumers will just be faced with more options they couldn't really care less about. After all, normal DVD looks pretty good on an HDTV and more people are choosing to take their video with them on the go; high-definition is the least of concerns for the joe wanting to watch Family Guy on his iPod.

3) The Linux-based replacement for Palm OS comes out
To limited acclaim in the West, it is immediately adopted by a significant number of Asian companies for its cheap, flexible architecture. The number of devices (almost entirely phones) running it by the end of 2006 will be around 10 in Asia and zero (maybe 1 or 2) in the West (US + Europe).

Wrong. Well, ALP (Access Linux for Palm) was released, but I've yet to hear of any actual adoption, so I'll just have to chalk this up to pure optimism.

4) Nokia will launch a Linux phone
Following the nascent success of its Linux-based 770 Internet Tablet, Nokia launches its first phone using a Linux-based OS. It mimics the S60 in look and feel. It does well, but not markedly so, causing much speculation and debate around the web about whether Nokia is abandoning S60 entirely.

Nope, didn't happen.

5) Democrats regain control of US Senate, make gains in HOR
The margin won't be enormous, but the Senate will once again be in the familiar (and, arguably, beneficial to the electorate) position of being led by the party not in control of the White House. More negotiation will result in 2007 and something a wee bit closer to "democracy" will return to the US shortly thereafter. Still a long way from acceptable, but closer.

Pretty much right on the money. In fact, you might say I underestimated their gains. Looking forward to a government much more balanced by checks and balances than it has been lately.

6) Windows Vista will launch, Apple users yawn
Windows Vista (launched in early Q4) will excite few, especially in the corporate ranks, due to the combination of a lack of "must-have" improvements and unattractive licensing structures offered by Microsoft. The 17 or so flavors of Vista will also leave consumers puzzled over which version is best for them and ultimately wait until they replace their hardware to upgrade. Given that processor speeds aren't increasing much and hard drives are getting easier to replace, there will be fewer changing out their PCs. Microsoft faces a tougher year than usual next year regarding financials; Windows Mobile and Xbox divisions still not profitable (but closer).

Sounds like a pretty accurate description of what actually happened.

7) Digital/HDTV makes big inroads
2006 will be the year of the migration to HDTV. Falling HDTV set prices (especially DLP and LCD), plus an exciting bounty of converging digital content, will usher in a period of rapid adoption that will continue into 2007. Content providers will actually start getting significant numbers of complaints when they broadcast non-HD content on their HD channels, leading to fewer programming lapses.

For the most part, yup. The sales of HDTVs were so large this holiday season that they actually affected the profitability of several large electronics retailers. So I guess it's clear that HDTV is taking off as expected. What remains to be seen is whether the broadcasters actually start paying attention now that HD viewership is climbing into significant numbers.

8) Satellite radio subscribership grows, but limited
Sirius and XM will continue to gain subscribers, but neither will top 10 million by the end of 2006. Someone will launch a mySatelliteRadio service that lets users listen to their personal music collections via satellite receiver (think MP3.com's old model applied to satradio). The RIAA will eat it for lunch, with a few hundred new downloading lawsuits for dessert.

XM had less than 8 million subscribers at the end of 2006 and Sirius had about 6 million, with the latter growing more quickly. Both are growing more slowly than the companies had predicted (and promised to investors), so that part of my prediction is absolutely spot on. I haven't heard of anything like the mySatelliteRadio service being launched, but given that many satellite receivers now enable playback of MP3 files, the two music sources are definitely getting closer.

9) TiVo is acquired
I don't know by whom, but I think this will happen within the next 12 months.

Ahem, no.

10) Resurgances of sci-fi/fantasy TV shows
The recent success of Battlestar Galactica and Lost, and the big money that the Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings franchises generate cause network television studios to start prepping more science fiction and fantasy content. A friend of mine thinks I'm daft to predict this -- we'll see. If not next year, then 2007. Or not.

Not exactly, at least not on the major networks. They are still heading towards the safe-and-familiar lines of reality/unscripted programming, dramas, and situation comedies. Alas, none of those are in space or in a castle somewhere. Too bad.

So, in the end, I had 5 predictions true or mostly correct, 4 that were mostly or completely wrong, and 1 that was unclear. Stay tuned for my predictions for 2007...