I predict that satellite radio, like XM and Sirius, won't be around in 10 years. It will be replaced by a mesh of other wireless technologies, such as cellular and WiMax. Internet access via municipal and private terrestrial wireless will replace satellite radio because the functions of satellite radio are so easily replaced by Internet access. Give me 120kbps data speed to my cellphone and I've already obsoleted satellite radio. Not only would you get access to thousands of Internet radio stations, you'd also get access to your own private music collection (e.g., set up Shoutcast on your home machine and just stream your music on demand). Both of those are much more valuable to consumers than 100 or so moderately tailored, but still rather generic, radio stations only tunable by proprietary receivers.
XM and Sirius might morph into something more than what they currently are (if not at least the two companies merging), but if they don't, their days are numbered. Soon, they'll be relegated to the trash heap of business history like full-service gas stations, the Pony Express, and dial-up Internet.
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