In reaction to my previous post, "Why Satellite Radio Is a Temporary Fad", Davy Fields sent me the following interesting comments:
"Although, I do think Sirius and XM are going to stick around as the content providers for internet music, I think they're also positioned well to jam themselves in enough cars for a few years they'll stick around: for every wired person like us who has the personal music collection they'd love to access on the road, there's ten people with a cassette deck with one tape in it and an AM/FM radio player in their '92 Taurus... I think the XM/Sirius Box is the Tivo equivalent of car audio... sure, On-demand programing of audio would be better (i.e., the equivalent of pulling up your home music library through your mobile tricorder-box we'll all have in ten years), but a lot of people would love just a little unit to shove in the dash with buttons that can give them a bunch of what's essentially better radio stations from them, which isn't exactly a dramatic change of their business model, and that's why I think they'll be here a while."
I think Davy and I don't fundamentally disagree. While he's a bit more optimistic about the potential market for satellite-based radio (but are all those ambivalent Taurus drivers willing to subscribe to a music source?), we both seem to believe that Sirius and XM will have to expand their business models a bit to become sustainable on a longer-term basis. Of course, if their strategy is just to get bought out by ClearChannel or another mega-conglomerate (i.e., media juggernaut), then maybe what they have now is enough. I still think some form of terrestrial, Internet-compatible wireless will be satellite's biggest competitor...eventually, anyway. Time will tell...
One thing to keep in mind is that, for many people, their "car desires" are different from their "home desires" when it comes to music.
For instance -- many people use car time to listen to things other than music. Sometimes it's sports. Sometimes it's NPR. Sometimes it's Rush or Dr. Laura.
I realize that it's just a random thought that doesn't really have anything to do with your theory, but it is something to keep in mind as it pertains to your own collection.
Also -- it's important to note that both providers are spending a lot of time and money to secure content (NFL, Stern, etc.). and content is really what's important.
Steve, I couldn't agree more. That content diversity only strengthens the advantage of Internet-based "radio" as a preferred medium. Somewhere, at all hours of the day, some form of NPR is being played, and I'd love to listen to it in my car whenever I am driving. Satellite radio *could* provide an all-NPR station, but what's more likely is for them to offer bits and pieces and fill the rest of the time with ads (damn their profit-motivated hides). Nobody offers as much diversity as the Internet, so getting the Internet *into* the car is the best way to get what you want to hear to correspond with when you're driving.