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January 18, 2004
Musings: What would 2104 be like?
I spent an hour on the highway today and spent a good part of that time wondering what the world would be like in a hundred years. One century -- not that much time at all, but if we look at the technological changes that have happened since 1904, predicting what the next 100 years would yield a huge range of forecasts.
Obviously, wireless will continue to evolve quickly. I'd fully expect to see wireless handheld videocoms as the norm. However, I don't expect the data landline to go away. Gigabit Internet is probably going to look like child's play to the casual user in 2104, and there will likely always be a need for fixed-location, high-speed Internet/data access, such as into the home.
The "intelligent house" probably won't really be all that intelligent, but home automation will certainly have reached new plateaus. New display technologies will, in all likelihood, have replaced windows (e.g. those clear LCD panels that can shade or display images) in upper-end homes and will be finding its way into everyday building practice. Good-bye to CRTs and anything that looks like a dedicated display unit (thank goodness).
My guess is that telecommuting will be much more widespread. The advances in high-richness communication media and easier-to-use information management technology will allow much better distributed collaboration. Besides, at $30 per gallon of gas, the car has changed quite a bit too since 2004. Granted, we won't all be running "Mr. Fusion" units on our hovercraft, but gasoline-powered engines will have generally disappeared from the highways. What will replace it? You got me...if I knew that, I'd be filthy rich in about 40 years. Maybe fuel cell, maybe all-electric, but probably something the mainstream hasn't even heard of yet.
So what do you guys think the technology of 2104 would be like? Will we have time travel? Will we have that base on Mars established yet, and will man have ventured to any other planets? Will Microsoft have assembled enough cash that it was able to purchase its own country, relocating from the US to avoid further anti-monopolistic regulation? Will PCs still exist? Will I be able to purchase my very own working Holodeck?
Comments
Who cares?
I don't think I'll be here.
Don't think any of us will be.
Posted by: HG Wells at January 18, 2004 8:49 PM
Just because I may not be here, why should I stop caring about the future? Would I not want the best for my descendents? Would I not want to make sure that the best possible situation awaits me should I somehow manage to be alive much longer than I expect today? Are we not, as an "intelligent" species, supposed to do more than just satisfy our own base needs at the expense of those around us and those that will follow us?
I sure hope so...if not, then we will certainly get what we deserve -- an eventual end, sooner rather than later, that will leave us merely as an object of curiousity mentioned in some future inhabitant's archaeology textbook.
Posted by: Craig at January 18, 2004 9:04 PM
This GearBits article says I have a chance at living that long!
Posted by: Sam at January 18, 2004 11:52 PM
Craig, as to hydrogen fuel... heard the other day on the radio about a dad & daughter duo who may have solved storage issues there -- forget the details now, but they've worked out a way to store hydrogen in a a better way... which might make a hydrogen powered car a bit more of a reality.
Posted by: Mike Rohde at January 19, 2004 10:48 AM
Sorry Mike, but did you read that article? The "new" hydrogen storage method still requires liquid-nitrogen temperatures. Do you, much less every gas station you might need to visit, have a cryocooler capable of -300 Fahrenheit? The future will mean less driving, regardless of what's powering the car.
To answer the original question, I think I can just make it to 2104 if I play my cards right. The big issue I think, will be the social upheaval of the higher standard of living: longer lives, fewer children, mass migrations. This means big changes in culture, employment, health care, taxation, everything. What our gadgets look like will be the least of our worries.
Rene Carlos
Posted by: rene carlos at January 19, 2004 11:49 AM
Rene, I don't have details on this new hydro storage method, but I recall that it was a better solution for storage -- no super-cold temps or ultra-high pressures. However it was a recent discovery, and still not fully worked out, so it might not make it to reality. We'll see.
I do agree that there are many other things to change in the next 100 years and while gadgets are the least of the items to wonder about, it's still fun. :-)
Posted by: Mike Rohde at January 20, 2004 2:37 PM