As I've done now for several years, here are a few guesses as to what shall come to pass in the tech industry during 2012. One caveat: my predictions are generally based on observations of the US/North American market, and may not make much sense if considered from the perspective of somewhere else.
1. Patent disputes in the mobile industry will escalate, threatening to tear it apart, and leading to some a significant change in tone, if not actual multi-player agreements, to reduce the risk for all (major) parties. While they could continue this miserable dance of who's-pissing-on-who-in-what-country, I think more rational heads will start to realize that it's really not doing anyone any good...except the corporate lawyers, of course.
2. RIM, maker of the Blackberry and perennial loser of market share, will be approached for acquisition, if not acquired outright. A reasonable scenario, I think, has Apple scooping them up solely for their patent portfolio, if not also their back-end server technology, which would help Apple move further into the corporate back-office (a market they've done little to woo so far).
3. Continuing on the smartphone theme, I think Google's Android will surpass 50% US smartphone market share during 2012 and end the year at around 55%. Apple's iOS will pass 30% of the smartphone market and end 2012 with about 33%. That leaves ~12% for RIM and Microsoft to split, with my prediction putting them each at 5-7%.
4. Google will announce that it's abandoning Chrome OS and consolidating all its OS efforts with Android. Those 527 Chromebooks that were sold instantly become collector's items.
5. Apple will release a crapload of new products in 2012. The iPad 3 will have a Retina display with 2048 x 1536 resolution (although, technically, that would be only 253 pixels per inch, far less than the iPhone 4's Retina display), a better front-facing camera, and 4G. Apple will also release, or at least announce, an iTV, which will include a camera on the front bezel and everyone will suddenly wonder why TVs haven't had cameras for the past 60 years.
6. I think the new laptop category called "ultrabooks" will expand significantly (from the 3 or 4 models currently available) and sell pretty well. IMO, there's a fairly compelling value proposition in a 12-14" laptop weighing 3 lbs or less with a fast processor, great battery life, and 120+ GB of solid-state storage for under a grand. Intel and the computer OEMs all have vested interest in getting consumers to spend more than the $400 they've become accustomed to, and a lot of people seem to be tired of buying 15.6" behemoths with miserable specs and battery life that's measured in minutes.
7. The number of tech IPOs will jump dramatically in 2012. There's been a big backlog, with only a few brave souls venturing forth recently (e.g., Zillow, Groupon, and Zynga). In 2012, I expect we'll see Facebook, Yelp go public, and maybe even Evernote and Twitter. The improving economy will make it hard to resist some instant wealth for these privately held firms.
8. Sprint will abandon its unlimited cellular data policy and go with a tiered pricing structure like every other major US carrier. The public's reaction will be swift and ugly, but ultimately ineffective at making Sprint regret the change. Moreover, Sprint will continue to turn on its nascent LTE network, making it increasingly hard to sell WiMax 4G phones to its customers. 2012 will not be a good year for the yellow swoosh.
9. Microsoft will release Windows 8 to a shocked and confused public, who will mill around the OS aimlessly looking for a Start button. Ballmer will try to convince everyone that it's better while simultaneously telling us how to make Windows 8 look like Windows 7. With Windows Phone not taking off, increasing competition for Office from web apps, the brightest spots for Microsoft will be Exchange, Xbox, and licensing revenue from Android device OEMs. Windows 8's launch will be far less successful than Windows 7's was, despite being available for a wider variety of hardware platforms.
10. In 2012, the major manufacturers of family cars will continue to struggle with the public's perception of electric cars. While additional cars will come out, none will sell terribly well. The only exception will be the Tesla Model S, which will start arriving in customers' driveways and help quite a bit in convincing America that an electric car isn't really as bizarre and scary as it thought. Tesla will be approached as an acquisition target by a large international automobile manufacturer.
Check back in about 365 days to see whether or not any of these predictions came true, mostly true, or not even close. Until then, have a great 2012!
Since 5 years in a row makes a tradition in my book, it's now once again time to revisit my predictions for 2011, and see how they panned out...or not.
1. The Apple iPad 2 (or whatever it's called) will be available with a front-facing camera and 4G (LTE), but will have the same screen resolution as the iPad. We should know about April.
Mostly right: Yes on the FF camera (albeit an incredibly low-resolution one) and yes on the same resolution as the original iPad, but no 4G LTE. Heck, not even the iPhone 4S has LTE. C'mon, Apple...what's the problem? Afraid of battery life complaints?
2. Nintendo will launch a new Wii console with HD output, DVD playback, and a Kinect-like video camera accessory. I think the first two are a lock, but the third part of that is more wish than expectation.
Again, mostly right. Nintendo launched a new console, the Wii U, and it does have HD output (although the multi-function controller, which includes a screen, is the main differentiator). But, like it's predecessor, it still won't play DVDs or Blu-Ray. Why, Nintendo, why??? The Wii U will be available early in 2012.
3. At least one of the smartphone platforms (iOS, Android, Symbian, Blackberry, WP7, MeeGo, webOS, Bada) will go away for good. My money is on Bada.
This was perhaps my most cynical prediction and I wasn't really that confident in it. But, amazingly, we saw not one, not two, but three smartphone platforms become abandonware in 2011. MeeGo was killed off when the Linux Foundation decided to move whole-hog towards Tizen, an HTML5-based OS. Nokia abandoned Symbian when it was clear there was no hope of it gaining traction in the smartphone space. We'll see if their cozying up to Microsoft and Windows Phone will prove to be a smart move. Finally, HP did, then didn't, then finally did open the cage and let webOS into the wilds of open sourcedom, likely to never see another smartphone installation again. So sad. Ironically, Bada is still going strong at Samsung, amazingly selling over 10 million Bada handsets in 2011. To whom, exactly, I'm not quite sure.
4. 3D will continue to grow, but not substantially and will mostly be relegated to gaming and in-theater movie experiences.
Perhaps I was a bit too US-centric in this prediction. According to NPD DisplaySearch, while 3D TV sales were so low that 3D actually lost ground in the US, it has grown in popularity in Europe and China. Given Sony's recent entry into 3D gaming TVs and systems for the home, it seems pretty clear that, at least in North America, gaming and theater experiences are the only things keeping 3D in people's minds. Whether or not the rest of the world knows something we don't, or soon follows suit, is yet to be determined.
5. More Android tablets/slates will be sold in 2011 than iOS tablets/slates. That assumes, of course, that the tsunami of Android slates we should see at CES results in products you can actually buy.
Ha ha ha...not even close. All the estimates I've seen have iPads outselling all Android tablets by multiples in 2011. It's not clear to me why that is, especially now that Android phones are outselling iPhones by almost a 2:1 margin. That said, given the new Kindle Fire, Nook Color, and some other rather serious tablets running Android (e.g., the Asus Transformer Prime), and rumors that Google itself might release a Nexus tablet in 2012, this coming year might see that gap close somewhat.
6. At least one of the DSLR manufacturers (Nikon, Canon, Sony, Olympus, Pentax/Samsung, Leica, Panasonic, Sigma) will cease producing DSLRs and/or be acquired by another company. My guess is Sigma, as I really have no idea how they can afford to put out mediocre (read "poorly selling") DSLR after mediocre DSLR.
Yes, but it wasn't Sigma (I still have no idea how they generate revenue). Pentax was purchased by Ricoh, who wants to get into the digital camera biz in a big way. Sony, Canon, and Nikon continue to dominate the DSLR market, with Olympus (who might not be around in a year), Panasonic, and others trying to carve out share in the Micro-Four-Thirds market.
7. By the end of 2011, Windows Phone will have the third largest app catalog (behind iOS & Android). That shouldn't be too much of a stretch, as its growth curve means it'll surpass Blackberry's 15,000 apps or so in a few months.
Yep. Apple still has the largest, with Android catching up quickly, and Windows Phone a very distant third. Although, if Nokia can execute on hardware and marketing as it has in the past, and Microsoft can continue to spend those Android licensing revenues on writing solid updates for Windows Phone, Redmond might just crack the top 3 smartphone platforms sooner than you think. RIM certainly isn't doing anything to stop them.
8. Google will struggle to establish content licensing agreements for Google TV, ending 2011 with a still-lackluster platform. Unless Google is willing to toss a bunch of cash at the networks, that is...it isn't going to win this on charm alone.
I'm not sure I could've nailed this more accurately. By any definition, Google TV was a huge disappointment for Google (not to mention Logitech) in 2011. Licensing problems kept certain content from being available, and platform software issues kept the user experience from wowing anybody. Better luck with the reboot, Goog.
9. Facebook will become the 2nd largest (most trafficked) website in the world (overtaking Microsoft.com). Heck...maybe the largest. A reminder that being successful doesn't mean doing anything to significantly improve the human condition.
If you look at these numbers, Facebook is indeed at #2, well behind Google and just in front of Yahoo! and MSN. However, if you add Google and YouTube together, as well as Microsoft.com and its MSN/Live properties together, Microsoft is still #2. But, the single-site statistics suggest that Facebook is a quickly growing superpower regardless.
10. Twitter will be acquired by another company. Fingers crossed they aren't evil.
Nope. Honestly, I had hoped that Google would buy Twitter, make it a stable platform, and integrate it into its other properties and services. Instead, Google did something I didn't think they were capable of: making a robust, vibrant, and successful social media platform from scratch. Google+ grew faster than anyone imagined and is well on its way to being the quickest to 100 million members of any online service anywhere. I can just hear Larry and Sergey asking, "Who needs Twitter?"
So, 8-ish out of 10 were mostly correct...my least incompetent job so far. Anyway, I'll be posting my predictions for 2012 tomorrow, so stay tuned. Meanwhile, here are GearBits' previous years' predictions and results:
| 2004: | Predictions, | No Results |
| 2006: | Predictions, | Results |
| 2007: | Predictions, | Results |
| 2008: | Predictions, | Results |
| 2009: | Predictions, | Results |
| 2010: | Predictions, | Results |
So you think Google+ is dying,
eh? Your stream seems to be drying up or decaying into a mundane trickle of
banality. Well, I'm sorry to say this, but it's probably not Google+, it's you.
You may be doing it wrong.
I'm no "SEO expert" or social
media guru, but if you want Google+ to be a dynamic, inspiring, fascinating
river of content and ideas for you, I suggest doing four things:
1) Understand yourself. Without a good understanding and appreciation of what you're passionate about, you'll meander among seemingly random posts, never finding that group of people who will light up G+ like a Christmas tree for you. If you can identify those topics that you most enjoy discussing, it will help you to find others who share that passion much more quickly and effectively. And those people are the point of social media platforms like Google+.
2) Engage. Now, you need to engage those people in a meaningful way. If you can start to do that, the conversations you'll begin having will make it easier to find even more people who can provide content of value to you. Engagement is more than punching the +1 button on the occasional pretty photo or commenting "Nice!" on a useful infographic. Engagement is also more than just making a lot of posts. Meaningful engagement means making substantive comments and interacting with others to enhance the intellectual value of a post -- or even over a series of posts -- whether it's yours or someone else's. In a nutshell, engagement requires conversation...there's no avoiding that.
3) Post publicly. This is a potentially confusing recommendation for some people, as they've come to believe that circles on G+ are meant to restrict the audience for your outgoing content. In some (rare) cases, that's true, such as when you want to keep a post private and give access to a small number of other people (e.g., close friends, family members, or a spouse). Personally, I use circles to limit the audience when I post photos of my kids, as I'd rather those not go floating about the Internet. But for more general content, restricting the audience hurts your ability to engage. For example, if you're posting a link to an interesting article about a new camera that's coming out, limiting that to being visible only to your Photography circle is a mistake. One reason is that you just can't be sure who is going to be interested in seeing that, and by restricting who gets to, you remove the possibility of serendipity. That guy who you circled because of his fascinating posts about cooking just might be looking for a new camera. Not letting him see that is actually a disservice. After all, if he's not looking for one, ignoring your post is as easy as, well, doing nothing. A better use for circles on G+ is for focusing your incoming content into sub-streams that are more homogeneous, which might make it easier to read if you're not bouncing around lots of different topics from incoming post to incoming post. Or, using circles to quickly catch up on what close friends and family are doing, whose posts might get lost in the torrent of those high-volume political activists you're following, is incredibly easy. So, use circles mostly just for two purposes: (a) restricting access to outgoing posts for privacy (not relevance) reasons, and (b) focusing/filtering your incoming content for easier reading.
4)
Be
consistent. Unless you're famous, it can be challenging to develop a social
media community that you're comfortable engaging and sharing your online
existence. It's going to be doubly difficult if you only pop in once or twice a
week for a little while. While you may only be following a few (dozen/hundred) people,
many of those who you want to see your original thoughts, reshared posts, or
external links follow lots of people. As a result, your post might just be
another drop in their otherwise fast-moving stream. I've not seen too many
people satisfied with the quality of their G+ experiences who don't interact at
least several times a week, if not daily. It doesn't need to be obsessive, but
consistent attention matters a lot. Assuming you are making posts and comments
people enjoy, the more frequently people see you (or, more accurately, your
avatar), the more they'll start to value your presence in their stream and the
more they'll engage you back. If you only appear once every blue moon, you'll
never develop enough social persistence to become an indispensable thread in their
online social fabric.
To sum up, I've found Google+ to be a rich, dynamic, and rewarding social network. But, to make the most of it, you'll need to do some introspection and understand what floats your boat; meaningfully engage those with similar passions; post publicly as much of your content as can be safely shared; and do all that regularly. If you do, I think you'll find Google+ quickly becoming a cherished part of your online, social experience.
So, I decided I wanted to create a time-lapse movie of the crystals growing, so the kids could enjoy at least that later on.
To do that, I took a Motorola DROID Razr, on loan from Verizon, and installed this Time-Lapse video recording app by Sheado.net [Android Market link]. I've used it before and it produces good results.
I then built a simple fixture from LEGO blocks to hold the phone at the right angle and elevation.
Not shown is a lamp I placed to illuminate the crystal kit. As this was going to happen over a 12-hour period, and light conditions in our kitchen were going to change a lot (from before noon to almost midnight), a constant light source was needed.
Not shown is assembly of the kit, which contains three pieces of cardboard treated with some chemical (I wasn't able to find out exactly what kind of crystals these are) that you then treat with a saline brine. The crystals start appearing within an hour after you do that.
If anyone knows what chemical reaction is involved here, please let me know.
So, here's the video:
Below are some close-ups of some of the prettier crystal growths.
Then, to top things off, we pulled out the microscope and looked at some of the crystals. Here are some at around 150X. Pretty cool.
As the stuff isn't toxic (unlike some of the older kits that use really nasty stuff that can etch granite and ruin just about any surface it gets on), it's not a bad way to spend an hour for kids (or grown-ups) interested in science.
Dear President Obama,
Your words, spoken during the early days of the Arab Spring movements, helped remind the world that governments have a responsibility to respect and maintain the human rights of free speech and peaceful assembly. Recent actions by police and local governments here in the United States directly contradict your message, undermining your position as the President. If we, the citizens of the United States, can not expect the benefit of the very freedoms you espouse and our Constitution guarantees, the future of our nation is at risk. Please act now, in accordance with your oath to "protect and defend the Constitution of the United States," to maintain this nation as an exemplar of these fundamental human rights.
Sincerely,
The 99%
Sincerely,
The 99%
I just wrote up a lengthy review of Motorola's webtop-enabled, dual-core processor-packing, qHD display-toting, monster of an Android phone, the DROID Bionic, available now on Verizon.
The full review is up at The Gadgeteer.
If you don't know what a Gini coefficient is, you really should.
Per Wikipedia:
"The Gini coefficient is a measure of the inequality of a distribution...usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x% of the population."
Here's a plot of major nations' Gini coefficients over the past six or so decades
Looking at that graph, you'll notice some interesting things:
1) The only country in that graph with a substantially higher Gini coefficient than the US has (i.e., greater wealth inequality) is Brazil, a country famous for its slums (among other things much more pleasant).That's where the US is heading pretty quickly if you extrapolate the curve that started around 1980.
2) The other two countries near the US are Mexico and China...two nations not exactly known for having high standards of living. Sure, some live very well...but that's the point: the higher the Gini coefficient of a nation, the wider the divide between the haves and the have-nots.
3) Most countries that are generally considered to have the highest standard of living / quality of life have Gini coefficients in the 25-35 range. The US's was almost 45 in 2007, and is even higher today.
So, if you're poor in the US today, you're going to get poorer. If you're middle-class in the US today, the chances that you'll slip out of the middle class and into poverty are much, much higher than the chance that you'll move up out of the middle class. And if you're in the top 1% in the US today, chances are you'll accumulate wealth faster than any previous generation of Americans were able to (except for maybe white plantation owners in the pre-Civil War South).
Now that I'm firmly entrenched in middle age and raising two kids, I've started noticing a lot of ways things are different today for children from when I was growing up. Many things are better, but some things are, in my opinion, a pale imitation:
BETTER NOW:
1) The Internet: We didn't have the Internet (or, more precisely, the Web) when I was a kid, so if you had to research a topic, your options were basically going to the library, checking out book stores, and running around a lot to see what physical media might be available in your local area, and that was a pain.
2) Movies: I don't mean kids' movies are better -- that could be debated for forever with no obvious conclusion -- I just mean that watching movies is a better experience today. Not only is HD a great thing, but bigger screens at home make movies much more of an experience. Knowing anyone with a TV larger than 25" was a rarity when I was a kid.
3) Video games: Clearly, the variety and quality of video games out now puts those of the 70s and early 80s to shame. Pong was fun, Space Invaders was mind-blowing when it first came out, and who didn't enjoy marathon Atari 2600 sessions, but they really do pale in comparison to what's available today.
4) Markers: They're washable now. When I was a child, if you even looked at a marker the wrong way, your shirt/dress/pants wound up looking like a tarp from Jackson Pollock's studio.
5) Cameras: Film cameras? Expensive. You had to buy the film and then pay for it to be processed. Yes, Polaroids were fun in that they gave you almost instant gratification, but they, too, were prohibitively expensive. Now, with digital, the cost per shot is essentially zero, so handing a camera to a kid to play with taking some photos is perfectly reasonable.
WORSE NOW:
1) Car trips: Who wants to drive for 8 hours strapped into an immovable seat with a 5-point safety harness like some Air Force test pilot? Sure, we now have all kinds of in-car video systems and iPods and stuff, which helps. But there's nothing like spreading out a blanket in the back-back of the station wagon.
2) Playgrounds: Teeter-totters, carousels, monkeybars, and all sorts of metal, moving contraptions that kids loved are getting harder and harder to find as playgrounds emphasize safety and minimize their exposure to litigation. Yes, the new rubber play surfaces help avoid skinned knees and broken bones, which is nice, but today's playground is considerably less interesting than those of a few decades ago.
3) Cracker Jack prizes: I remember getting spy-decoder rings, paratrooper figures with working parachutes, and ball-in-a-cup puzzles in boxes of Cracker Jack. Now, it's at best a temporary tattoo, and at worst an inane joke. Cost-cutting has gutted this little piece of Americana.
4) Board games: The quality of the materials in a lot of board games has really declined. Whereas you used to get interesting metal figures to move around the board, today you're lucky to get even crappy plastic ones. And if you want the nice pieces, you have to buy the Special Edition, which costs 3X the normal kit.
5) Hot Wheels: Plastic and decals instead of metal and paint? Seriously??
A few Android apps I've discovered recently that you might also enjoy:
Bouncy Mouse - a cute and enjoyable game, on the complexity (as well as kid-friendliness) of Angry Birds
Dragon, Fly - another cute, and mindless, game of skill (if tapping the screen -- the only interaction with the game -- can be considered a skill).
GTasks - a tasks / to-do app that syncs very nicely with Google Tasks (in Google Calendars) and has a really nice widget to boot.
Pocket - a free and very slick password and personal information manager that works great on the phone, has a free desktop component, and can even sync between the two using your Dropbox account and an encrypted database.
In no particular order, if I had to pick 10 movies to last me the rest of my life, they'd be
- Star Wars
- Empire Strikes Back
- Blazing Saddles
- Terminator
- Princess Bride
- Monty Python & the Holy Grail
- Spinal Tap
- Raiders of the Lost Ark
- The Lord of the Rings Trilogy (counts as one*)
- The Usual Suspects
Ten more movies I was tempted to include:
- Alien
- Scream
- Blade Runner
- The Incredibles
- Kill Bill (Vols. I & II)
- The Silence of the Lambs
- Twelve Monkeys
- The Shining
- V for Vendetta
- Airplane!
Oh, crap, I forgot a few several that must be mentioned:
- Ferris Bueller's Day Off
- Good Will Hunting
- The Jerk (thanks, Ben)
- Sin City
- Caddyshack
- Ghostbusters (thanks, Rob)
- Young Frankenstein (thanks, Bryan)
*It's my list, so sue me.
I'm not a conspiracy-minded man. Really. Most people and groups are too incompetent to manage any endeavor so complex and nefarious as to merit the title of conspiracy. But one exception is starting to become clear, and it's being perpetrated by conscienceless corporate power-brokers.
Also, as voting tendencies correlate with income, the growing number of poor will have less and less influence as to who is making the laws that define their society. And, Citizens United already granted corporations some citizen-like, or at least person-like, rights that can greatly influence elections. Since these undereducated masses will have little ability to think critically about the information being provided to them, and the "news" networks will continue to use their bully pulpits to push agendas that benefit themselves first and foremost, there's little chance that the masses will get access to good, critical information. And, even if they did, what's the chance they'd be able to comprehend it? After all, isn't that Dancing with the Stars controversy much more interesting?
As a business professor, I'm both intellectually and professionally curious about how business should work, what it should accomplish, and how it should get along with government. When I think about the long-term implications of corporations having so much influence over government, it starts to become scary.
Laws control people. Governments control laws. And people are supposed to control governments, just to make a nice, virtuous circle. However, if corporations control governments (as they already do to a huge extent), and "the people" have very little control over corporations (see what influence those 100 shares you own get you at the next board meeting), then that circle becomes a unidirectional line, with business at the top and everything else at the bottom.
And the recent wave of Republican muscle-flexing is clearly, obviously aimed at supporting the eventual control of everything by corporations. Why? Money. And power. Well, there's not much difference between those, since they mutually reinforce each other...have one and you'll get the other, etc., etc.
Let's take a look at recent events to work through a hypothetical. First, GOP governors want to end labor's rights to organize while simultaneously giving big tax breaks to corporations and the wealthy (who are almost universally tied to corporations). This is exactly the same kind of "wealth redistribution" Obama talked about, and which the Right decried as an abomination, during the 2008 election, but in the opposite direction. As labor rights decrease, so do wages and benefits....i.e., wealth. But where does that wealth go? It stays with the corporation, which no longer is forced to distribute that to its employees. If it's a good corporation, that newly conserved wealth gets distributed instead to shareholders, which are generally the wealthiest 10% already. So, now you have wealth from the working poor and middle-class being transferred to other corporations and wealthy individuals.
But that's not the most nefarious part. Not even close. By undermining the tax base, Republicans get to reduce social services and spending on public education. This drives states and local governments to lay off teachers and consolidate schools. That drives the number of kids per class up and the number of extracurricular learning activities and educational materials down. As a result, overall educational quality drops for all those kids not fortunate enough to be able to afford private school. And who would those be? Yep, the kids of the working poor and middle-class.
So these kids get a crappy education, which means it's harder to get into a good college. Not even state schools will be able to take them because they're having to cut rolls or raise tuition (and limit scholarships), if not both, as a result of these same GOP efforts to reduce support for public higher education. And not to mention the reduction in federal and state education grants, which isn't a universally Republican thing. This means these kids will have less of a chance to get a good education and will have a harder time competing for the most desirable jobs. Instead, who will get those good jobs? The kids of the wealthy...the ones who initially benefited from the major redistribution of wealth.
This entrenches that wealth transfer by creating a permanent underclass, who are locked into menial and low-paying jobs by virtue of no realistic way to acquire a decent education (the only way most people move up through the socioeconomic hierarchy). The less they earn, the less taxes their communities generate, which means even less money for education, and the cycle into entrenched poverty is complete.
Also, as voting tendencies correlate with income, the growing number of poor will have less and less influence as to who is making the laws that define their society. And, Citizens United already granted corporations some citizen-like, or at least person-like, rights that can greatly influence elections. Since these undereducated masses will have little ability to think critically about the information being provided to them, and the "news" networks will continue to use their bully pulpits to push agendas that benefit themselves first and foremost, there's little chance that the masses will get access to good, critical information. And, even if they did, what's the chance they'd be able to comprehend it? After all, isn't that Dancing with the Stars controversy much more interesting?
You may think I'm being melodramatic. Or that I have a conspiratorial streak in me after all. You could be right...but what if I am? Education is the fundamental linchpin that holds society together. If we let corporations undermine that, as they are indirectly starting to, we are lost.
After a relatively successful set of predictions for 2010, here are our prognostications for 2011. Don't laugh...if history serves as a guide, several will come true...or mostly true.
1. The Apple iPad 2 (or whatever it's called) will be available with a front-facing camera and 4G (LTE), but will have the same screen resolution as the iPad. We should know about April.
2. Nintendo will launch a new Wii console with HD output, DVD playback, and a Kinect-like video camera accessory. I think the first two are a lock, but the third part of that is more wish than expectation.
3. At least one of the smartphone platforms (iOS, Android, Symbian, Blackberry, WP7, MeeGo, webOS, Bada) will go away for good. My money is on Bada.
4. 3D will continue to grow, but not substantially and will mostly be relegated to gaming and in-theater movie experiences.
5. More Android tablets/slates will be sold in 2011 than iOS tablets/slates. That assumes, of course, that the tsunami of Android slates we should see at CES results in products you can actually buy.
6. At least one of the DSLR manufacturers (Nikon, Canon, Sony, Olympus, Pentax/Samsung, Leica, Panasonic, Sigma) will cease producing DSLRs and/or be acquired by another company. My guess is Sigma, as I really have no idea how they can afford to put out mediocre (read "poorly selling") DSLR after mediocre DSLR.
7. By the end of 2011, Windows Phone will have the third largest app catalog (behind iOS & Android). That shouldn't be too much of a stretch, as its growth curve means it'll surpass Blackberry's 15,000 apps or so in a few months.
8. Google will struggle to establish content licensing agreements for Google TV, ending 2011 with a still-lackluster platform. Unless Google is willing to toss a bunch of cash at the networks, that is...it isn't going to win this on charm alone.
9. Facebook will become the 2nd largest (most trafficked) website in the world (overtaking Microsoft.com). Heck...maybe the largest. A reminder that being successful doesn't mean doing anything to significantly improve the human condition.
10. Twitter will be acquired by another company. Fingers crossed they aren't evil.
As is now a tradition, it's time to revisit our GearBits' predictions for 2010 to see if we were anywhere close to accurate.
I'm REALLY happy that I got this one wrong. That is, of course, if you ignore the Chinese hacking of Google and other companies, and you don't consider WikiLeaks' activity "cyberterrorism" (I don't) or the "hacktivism" it prompted. Frankly, I was expecting some major outage -- a stock exchange taken down, a city's electrical grid compromised, or something on that order -- and it's great that that didn't happen in 2010.
Yep...mostly. Windows Phone 7 did not come out seeming "stale," but it was roundly criticized for lacking a long list of features found on other platforms (e.g., copy & paste, tethering, multitasking, etc.). While it certainly doesn't have the fleet of handsets that Android boasts, WP7 has launched on an impressive number of devices and carriers across the globe. Add to that the fact that WP7, just a few months after launch, already has more apps than webOS does after more than 18 months, Microsoft appears to have gotten more right than wrong and certainly enough to keep their seat at the smartphone table.
By any measure, 3D TV has been talked about in the press more than it's been brought into consumers' homes. In 2010, the combination of scant high-quality content and expensive/uncomfortable/incompatible gear failed to make 3D a compelling experience, and slow sales was the result.
There's been relatively little discussion in 2010 of how social media should change search. While we saw a lot of sites become more integrated into social media, such as via Facebook's nearly ubiquitous "Like" button, Google, Microsoft and Yahoo!'s attempts to add a social component to their search products never really gained traction. Clearly, it's harder than it seems to glean those rare nuggets of helpful, timely information from the vast noise of the social web.
Looking back at 2010, I don't see any noticeable increase in "trans-genre" movies and TV shows. And maybe that's for the best, really. But, if the forthcoming "Cowboys & Aliens" is any indication, I just might've been a year early on this prediction.
Pretty much, yeah. ;-)
I'm going to give this one to me, but I'll admit that USB 3.0 adoption has been a bit softer than I thought it would be. I mean, we do now have motherboards, PCs, external external hard drives, and flash drives that all use USB 3.0, but it's clearly not ubiquitous yet. Wireless USB went nowhere in 2010, unfortunately, just as predicted.
Clearly a thumbs-up. You don't think Steve would've missed the grand unveiling of his "magical" iPad, now would you?
Bzzt! Wrong...thanks for playing. Sprint never got a buyout offer, but it did end 2010 on a much stronger note than it started the year. Not only has it met all its WiMax/4G rollout milestones, it is now being lauded for having among the best customer service in the US cellular market. Not that that's saying much ("tallest pygmy" and all that), but it's something.
Twitter grew a lot in 2010, but not as quickly as it did in 2009. Two stats support this assessment. In 2009, Twitter grew from an Alexa "reach" rating of essentially zero to about a 5; in 2010, it grew from a 5 to about an 8. While that's another big increase, it's a smaller increase than in 2009. Also, in 2009, Twitter grew from 100 million tweets per quarter to 2 billion, a 1900% growth rate. In 2010, it grew from 2 billion to a around 8 billion quarterly posts, a 400% increase. So, while Twitter is still growing hugely, 2010 just wasn't as blockbuster of a year as 2009 was.
1) Cyberterrorism Becomes a Significant Issue
We've all read reports and stories that say cyberterrorism (the act of attacking a country via its computer networks) is a growing threat and that the US should take it seriously. We've even seen some limited cases where it was used to minor effect. I expect 2010 will see the first major example of the damage cyberterrorism can achieve, and we'll all be much more aware of it as a result. Sub-prediction: McAfee and Symantec sales grow significantly as a result.
I'm REALLY happy that I got this one wrong. That is, of course, if you ignore the Chinese hacking of Google and other companies, and you don't consider WikiLeaks' activity "cyberterrorism" (I don't) or the "hacktivism" it prompted. Frankly, I was expecting some major outage -- a stock exchange taken down, a city's electrical grid compromised, or something on that order -- and it's great that that didn't happen in 2010. 2) Microsoft Launches Windows Mobile 7, Enough to Stay in the Game
The smartphone space is inhabited mostly by 6 key platform players: Symbian, Blackberry, iPhone, Android, webOS, and Windows Mobile. Microsoft's recent endeavors in the mobile space haven't netted much (except perhaps some slight momentum on the media player side). WinMo 6.5 was late and generally uncompetitive with more contemporary offerings already in the marketplace. Pink was an absolute disaster. Even hardcore WinMo fans are getting restless for something really new. Windows Mobile 7 will have a daunting challenge in successfully fighting back against 5 competitors with better products and/or well-established market shares. Windows Mobile 7, when it comes out in the latter half of 2010, will still seem a little stale in comparison, but much better than 6.5. I do, however, fully expect 7 will tap into the other mobile products & services Microsoft has been cultivating, such as Bing and Zune (what is it with their onomotopoeic product names?). It won't be a barnburner, but, with some help from HTC and a couple other big-name handset producers Microsoft can count on, they'll have a small stable of fairly impressive devices available by the end of the year.
Yep...mostly. Windows Phone 7 did not come out seeming "stale," but it was roundly criticized for lacking a long list of features found on other platforms (e.g., copy & paste, tethering, multitasking, etc.). While it certainly doesn't have the fleet of handsets that Android boasts, WP7 has launched on an impressive number of devices and carriers across the globe. Add to that the fact that WP7, just a few months after launch, already has more apps than webOS does after more than 18 months, Microsoft appears to have gotten more right than wrong and certainly enough to keep their seat at the smartphone table. 3) 3-D Gets Even More Press but No Real Traction in the Home
3-D televisions and video players will be all over the place at CES, but their availability and technical trade-offs will keep them from seeing significant adoption in 2010. Long-term, however, I think 3-D will eventually take off, but I doubt it will happen as long as viewers have to wear special glasses in order to not be nauseated by the image.
By any measure, 3D TV has been talked about in the press more than it's been brought into consumers' homes. In 2010, the combination of scant high-quality content and expensive/uncomfortable/incompatible gear failed to make 3D a compelling experience, and slow sales was the result.4) Fervor over Social Search Subsides but Doesn't Die Out
Social search (i.e., using real-time social media as sources of useful information for returning search results) is all the rage as we enter 2010. I think that the major search engines (e.g., Google, Bing, Yahoo!, et al.) will all figure out by the end of the year that, while social search has some promise for a small subset of queries, information produced by social media is largely junk and an unreliable source of value to their customers (search engine users). However, there is some gold in them thar hills, and we'll start seeing the fruits of their efforts as they isolate those situations where social search can indeed be really, really valuable (e.g., product reviews and event status).
There's been relatively little discussion in 2010 of how social media should change search. While we saw a lot of sites become more integrated into social media, such as via Facebook's nearly ubiquitous "Like" button, Google, Microsoft and Yahoo!'s attempts to add a social component to their search products never really gained traction. Clearly, it's harder than it seems to glean those rare nuggets of helpful, timely information from the vast noise of the social web.5) Movies and TV Shows Go Mashup...and Not in a Good Way
A lot of media producers seem to be running out of ideas, so I think they'll start going for unique combinations of themes and concepts to fuel their movies and television shows. Think space vampires and hot robot/android women battling killer zombies driving souped-up, well-armed cars really fast around Las Vegas. Coming soon to theaters near you.
Looking back at 2010, I don't see any noticeable increase in "trans-genre" movies and TV shows. And maybe that's for the best, really. But, if the forthcoming "Cowboys & Aliens" is any indication, I just might've been a year early on this prediction. 6) Apple Announces a Tablet
Yes, I'm a sucker for this rumor-that-will-not-die. It's not like I'm even a fan of the tablet concept, so this isn't something I'm particularly hoping will happen. I just think it will. Imagine a 7"-to-10" iPhone Touch and you won't be too far off. Oh, and it will be more expensive than anyone who isn't an Apple shareholder thinks is reasonable, yet it will sell quite well (at least initially).
Pretty much, yeah. ;-) 7) SuperSpeed USB Takes Off Quickly
I think we'll see SuperSpeed USB (a.k.a. USB 3.0) be adopted very rapidly in 2010. Signs from motherboard and accessory makers are that they're very eager to adopt this recently ratified standard, and I think everyone would agree that faster USB connections is only a good thing. As long as they don't screw up backward compatibility (one of the keys to USB 2.0 being as successful as it has been), it'll be another home run. On a related note, Wireless USB will not get the attention or traction we'd all like a stable, high-speed wireless connectivity standard to get, mostly because it just won't be as simple as plugging a wire into a hole.
I'm going to give this one to me, but I'll admit that USB 3.0 adoption has been a bit softer than I thought it would be. I mean, we do now have motherboards, PCs, external external hard drives, and flash drives that all use USB 3.0, but it's clearly not ubiquitous yet. Wireless USB went nowhere in 2010, unfortunately, just as predicted. 8) Steve Jobs Gives an Apple Keynote Presentation
Might Sir Jobs be the "one more thing" at WWDC?
Clearly a thumbs-up. You don't think Steve would've missed the grand unveiling of his "magical" iPad, now would you? 9) Sprint is Acquired
The cellular carrier's weak valuation and lackluster performance in retaining customers and attracting new ones, combined with its continued WiMAX roll-out will make it a target for some kind of merger or acquisition, likely by a European carrier looking to get entry into the US market. The actual acquisition may not go through in 2010 due to extensive regulatory review, but the intent will be announced.
Bzzt! Wrong...thanks for playing. Sprint never got a buyout offer, but it did end 2010 on a much stronger note than it started the year. Not only has it met all its WiMax/4G rollout milestones, it is now being lauded for having among the best customer service in the US cellular market. Not that that's saying much ("tallest pygmy" and all that), but it's something. 10) Twitter Grows at a Slower Rate than in 2009
Twitter will continue to gain new members faster than it loses them, but it will not see the huge surge it enjoyed in 2009. This will mostly be because the company's management has a tenuous, at best, grasp on what its users want (leading it to make bad design decisions) and a business model that does not support both rapid growth and scalable, reliable service (thereby turning off users). It's too bad, too, as Twitter could've become the next Facebook had they played their cards right. The only thing that can save it is an acquisition...Google, perhaps?
Twitter grew a lot in 2010, but not as quickly as it did in 2009. Two stats support this assessment. In 2009, Twitter grew from an Alexa "reach" rating of essentially zero to about a 5; in 2010, it grew from a 5 to about an 8. While that's another big increase, it's a smaller increase than in 2009. Also, in 2009, Twitter grew from 100 million tweets per quarter to 2 billion, a 1900% growth rate. In 2010, it grew from 2 billion to a around 8 billion quarterly posts, a 400% increase. So, while Twitter is still growing hugely, 2010 just wasn't as blockbuster of a year as 2009 was.For 2010, things look pretty good: we got 7 right and 3 wrong.
Here are GearBits' previous years' predictions and results:
| 2004: | Predictions, | No Results |
| 2006: | Predictions, | Results |
| 2007: | Predictions, | Results |
| 2008: | Predictions, | Results |
| 2009: | Predictions, | Results |
